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Grain price info
Corn price limits - 30 cents; soybean price limits - 70 cents. Daily price limits can expand twice, by approximately 50% each time, when the price of two or more futures contract months within the same crop year closes at the limit (up or down): when the daily limit conditions are met, expanded limits on the 1st day would be corn 45 cents, wheat 90 cents, and beans $1.05; expanded limits on the 2nd day would be corn 70 cents, wheat $1.35, and beans $1.60. Daily price limits for these commodities will revert to their previous levels when no futures contract month for that commodity closes at limit bid or limit offer that day. Electronic trade opens at 6:00 pm and closes at 7:15 am; daytime electronic and open outcry trades from 9:30 am to 1:15 weekdays.
Morning Comments
Setp 3 8:20 am
Good Morning!
Corn down 2. Soybeans up 6. Wheat up 9.
Grain markets firmer overnight supported by yesterday’s comments from Russia that it will extend its export ban and the continued reports and belief that Corn yields are lower than the USDA estimate. Corn closed slightly lower on some technical pressure as it nears the $4.50 mark. However, before falling, corn put in a new 8-month contract and 15-month spot high. Soybean charts looks a little negative on Midwest rains helping the final yield and slowdown in new China buying, but they are managing to stay on the positive side due to short covering. Wheat continues to lead the grains on continued uncertain global production and increased US demand. Better than expected jobs data has helped rally equities this morning. More private production estimates were out as Allendale estimated corn yield at 162.3 bpa with production at 13.147 billion bushels and bean yield of 43.21 bpa with production estimated at 3.370 billion bushels. Informa will release its production estimates at 10:30 AM. Of course these numbers and the USDA numbers out on the 10th are all as of September 1st.
Grain markets will be closed Sunday night and Monday in observation of the Labor Day holiday.
Crude Oil lower $74.47 off .55. Gold higher $1253.80 up $1.70.
The Dollar is trading a shade lower in front of the jobs report today. World stocks, Japan up 0.6% China steady Europe up 0.2% Dow futures off 6 points. Chinese Soybean, Meal and Oil futures closed higher, Corn lower.
Yields:
Monticello - 1st field (soil compaction issues) yielded 141 bpa, vs. 205 bpa last year. Monticello - 2nd field (1 mile from 1st field, but with no compaction issues) yielded 201 bpa, vs 205 bpa last year.
Rantoul, IL (15 miles north of Champaign) - Field made 165 bpa, vs. 190 bpa last year.
Northern Champaign County - First 3 fields went 148 bpa, 175 bpa, and 195 bpa. Last year, all 3 fields were over 200 bpa
Graymont – 180
Maroa – 150
Minier – 160
Wapella 185
Gallantin Co. – 180-185
Owaneco, IL (near Taylorville): 80 acres of corn harvested at with an average yield of 212 bpa and 20% moisture.
Stonington Ill just south of Decatur Ill : 160 acres, first year corn with no fungicide.- 189 dry. Hearing corn/corn yielding at least 20 bushels per acre less than first year corn
Yield reported 200 below expectation, last year 230
Adrian MO - Yield reported 120 expected 140. this field was planted early received heavy rain and had several low areas in the field that produced no corn. • Manchester OK - yield reported range from 65 to 90 bu/ac...in line with expectation ... overall average likely to be better than trend line for this area.
Montezuma IN (west central): 158, better than expected
Western Ford/Eastern McLean corn: 114 bpa, 143 bpa, and 162 bpa. These yields come from a farmer who has farms on about every kind of ground that we have in this area (some rolling and some flat). (This guy would have had 180 to 195 bushel corn last year.) This is pretty representative of all of the yields that we are hearing in our area so far.
New Berlin, IL: 170 bpa, 194bpa and 153bpa , dry. Not sure field sizes but comment on the 170bpa was 240 LY. *not sure if the 240 LY was a dry or not*
Decatur Co. IN. Soybeans Originally reported yesterday in the upper 60’s, final yield was 73bpa, about 10bpa better than average
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization has asked member countries to attend an emergency meeting in Rome on Sept 24. The last such meeting was held in November 2009. “The meeting will look at both short-term and long-term ways to augment grain supply and stabilize prices…The big question is what countries themselves have done and plan to do in order to mitigate price instability,” an official with the group said. In August, the FAO’s Food Price Index jumped 5% to 176 points. That was the biggest month-on-month gain in 10 months and the highest level since September 2008. Yet it was still off 38% from the record set in June 2008.
The general manager of COFCO Feed Co. in China says animal feed production will top 150 mmt. vs. 148 mmt. in 2009. He noted increasing meat consumption has increased demand for animal feed. He said due this rising demand and industrialization production could reach 250 mmt. bu 2020.
South Korea is seeking 110k tonnes of corn for January arrival today, after passing on a similar amount in a larger tender earlier this week.
Asian millers have purchased 180k tonnes of Australian & U.S. wheat over the past 10 days, and they’re actively looking to book more cargoes, after Russia said that they would extend their export ban through late next year.
Chinese grain analyst Shanghai JC Intelligence raised their 2010 Chinese Corn production estimate to 158.7 mmt. up from their previous estimate of 149 mmt. This compares to China’s National Grain and Oilseed Information Center estimate of 168 mmt. and the USDA estimate of 166 mmt.
The domestic price of Soybeans in China has dropped this last week as crush margins are poor and crushers are waiting for the government sale of reserve Soybeans.
Germany’s Farm Minister issued a report saying Germany’s 2010 total grain crop will likely fall 12% from last year to 43.8 mmt. The Minister said he believed Germany would still be self supporting in Wheat but the German Flour Mill Association says Germany may import up to 1.0 mmt. of milling Wheat in 2011.
Grain analyst UKAgroConsult is reporting Wheat seeding of the 2011 crop has begun in the Ukraine and framers are likely to complete the sowing within the optimal period despite the recent drought.
The Argentine Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in their weekly report said dry weather is affecting more than a third of the Wheat crop but recent rains have improved conditions in most areas.
Net Fund Positions: Corn +406,975. Soybeans +138,374. Meal +65,681. Corn +39,642. Wheat +49,743.
6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Below Precip.
Early calls are steady/mixed…maybe higher if the market reacts to a lower Informa number at 10:30am.
Have a great day!
Amy N. Brammer
Business Development Mgr. | Topflight Grain Coop.
400 E. Bodman | Bement, IL 61813
phone :: (217) 678-2261
fax :: (217) 678-8113
email :: abrammer@topflightgrain.com
web :: www.topflightgrain.com
Evening comments
Good Thursday Afternoon!
Corn up 1. Soybeans up 3. Wheat up 5.
We managed a slightly better close after a mostly down day due to profit taking as supportive outside markets and a little buying action pulled the grains higher on the close. If nothing surprisingly bearish to outside markets is in tomorrow morning’s unemployment numbers, tomorrow could be another quietly mixed day ahead of the long weekend.
Have a great evening!
Amy N. Brammer
Business Development Mgr. | Topflight Grain Coop.
400 E. Bodman | Bement, IL 61813
phone :: (217) 678-2261
fax :: (217) 678-8113
email :: abrammer@topflightgrain.com
web :: www.topflightgrain.com
for sale
FOR SALE:
1986 Wilson 42' trailer
(tractor has been sold)
Call the Topflight Grain/Bement office @ 217-678-2261 for more information.
