Closing Markets: Corn: +15.50.
Beans: +24.50. Wheat: +12.50.
TFG is extending our drying incentive at ALL LOCATIONS through the end of day WEDNESDAY!
2 1/2 cents per pt of moisture up to 30%. Regular rate above.
Harvest hours will be used as needed!
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches start THIS WEEK!! 11:30-1:30 pm!
Come get a pork chop!
THURSDAY!! ~ Milmine
FRIDAY!! ~ Tabor
9/28 ~ Pierson
9/29 ~ Emery
9/30 ~ Cisco
10/1 ~ Johnston Siding
The United Church of Atwood will be serving pork chop lunches Saturday, 10/3 from 11am-1pm in Pierson by free-will donation!
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Following a Friday sell-off in the ag space to end the week last week, markets came roaring back on Monday and traded higher to sharply higher throughout the day on optimism surrounding the week's trade meeting between the US and China and as speculative selling has generally lessened. Position adjustment and long liquidation were at the heart of a lot of the downward pressure seen the last several days, but at least for today, that pressure looks to have now subsided amid what continue to be mostly bullish fundamentals.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures started the week higher on Monday, erasing the losses seen last week and shooting back up near the recent high on optimism surrounding Chinese demand and as early yields seem to be performing notably worse than expected across the Corn Belt. Due to that drop in yield, along with good early-delivery cash bids now being less common than they were 10 days ago, farmer selling has also dried up a bit, which gave buyers little resistance as they piled into more longs throughout the session. The market has obviously had plenty of time to price in record demand levels over the last ten months, but a political purchase agreement by the Chinese would be a new development that isn't yet reflected in the balance sheet. Record fund length is in part due to the falling crop size, but it also has to do with traders being aware that this possibility exists and positioning accordingly. With harvest delayed across a lot of the upper Midwest, its all about China the next couple days.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was higher to start the week on Monday, with Friday's loser meal being Monday's upside driver on headlines that several Midwest crush plants could slow or shutdown in the coming days due to lack of available supply caused by a slower-than-normal start to harvest. As for China, its not expected that there will be any announcements this week regarding additional tonnages or volumes of soybeans, but traders will still be watching developments for whether or not reciprocal tariffs are lifted, which remains the hurdle blocking Chinese crushers from purchasing beans from the US and not only the government.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures were higher to start the week on Monday, with buying the result of both strength throughout the rest of the space and also more weekend missile/drone strikes between Russia and Ukraine that signal there continues to be little if any progress being made towards any sort of a ceasefire agreement. President Zelensky says that he's ready to engage in diplomatic negotiations towards ending the war, but following weekend political wins by Putin in Russia that have seemingly emboldened his ideology, such negotiations would seemingly also appear to be a ways off. An end to the war does not appear to be close, which means Black Sea export capacity is only likely to decline further.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down around $1.00/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Rainfall this week looks to shift a little further south and west compared to last week, with the EU model calling for 2-4" in its seven day forecast for an area stretching from NM to central/west-central IA. Areas north of here through the Dakotas and western MN see lighter rainfall chances the next week of a half inch to an inch, while parts of the Corn Belt east of the Mississippi see generally limited moisture chances.
Temperatures across the Midwest will be noticeably cooler over the next several days, with daytime highs not expected to get out of the 60's until late in the week as far south as roughly I-70. Heat stays present further south though, with temperatures expected to stay well above average through the south and southeast.
There's not great model agreement in the extended forecast this afternoon, but the lean appears to be for continued southwest flow around a large low pressure system off the coast of CA which could pump moisture through the southern part of the country and then possibly further north through the Midwest into the first week of October.
There's also poor agreement from the models on the temperature outlook into month-end, with the GFS seeing the cooler air expected this week lingering then through next week, while the EU model pushes jet stream flow back to the north and allows warmer air to push back into the Midwest and broader eastern US.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
