Closing Markets: Corn: +1.50 old & +2.25 new.
Beans: +5 old & +4 new. Wheat: -5.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Monday ag trade was mixed/mostly higher to get the new week rolling, with corn, soybeans and bean oil trading in the green while the wheat and meal markets fell on what seemed to be more reconciliation of the data seen Friday and as macro happenings and weather again attracted most of the headlines. For the most part, developments in the Middle East and a resulting $6/bbl rally in the crude oil market were at the center of most market conversations, and are likely what led to the higher closes that were seen throughout the space.
Corn Summary-
Both old and new crop corn futures saw gap-higher starts to the week Sunday evening, with those gaps remaining open still by the close today as a combination of war and weather premium were put back into prices. We have no idea what happens next with Iran, but see it worth mentioning that fertilizer prices have come down significantly and generally stayed there for the most part, which was a lot of the reason corn futures were so closely tied to other markets when this all started several months ago. Yes, the biofuel/ethanol piece is part of it, but the initial war rally in corn was the result of a major disruption of fertilizer supplies, not because ethanol demand was suddenly going to skyrocket. Otherwise, coming heat this week has been well advertised, and it now becomes a question of what damage occurs and are soil moisture levels at present adequate enough to handle it. Flash drought conditions in the north/northwest are possible the next five days.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures closed higher to start the week on Monday while the products were sharply mixed amid a mixed bag of headlines including more Chinese sales, a return to risk-on in the Middle East, and a possible trucker strike in Brazil that led to a somewhat two-sided complex throughout the day. Buying in oil was likely almost entirely tied to the rally in crude oil, while meal trade probably had something to do with the Brazil news and the beans were in the middle but firmer on positive sentiment regarding another flash sale to China and amid potentially record heat across the northwest this week. Aside from those things, there wasn't a lot otherwise explicitly new to the complex throughout the day on Monday otherwise though, with trade becoming somewhat technical into the end of the day.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures were lower Monday, giving back some of the gains seen to end the week last week as the Azov rally likely got a little ahead of its skis amid what continues to be a lack of detail. While corrective today, we do see the developments in the region as longer term supportive to the futures market from the standpoint that it appears grain shipments could become more of a target both from an economic hinderance perspective by the Ukrainians and a retaliatory perspective on the part of the Russians. If this occurs, it's likely to be the biggest supply disruption episode out of the Black Sea region since the grain corridor days that ended some three years ago. Traders are taking a cautious approach to the situation for now, but are watchful for more details.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $6.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Forecasts for the week ahead have much of the Midwest drier amid high pressure ridging across the central US, with just limited rains at best seen across parts of the far southern and northern edges of the Corn Belt but little to no precip elsewhere. The EU model (above) has rains then returning to northern parts of the area through the weekend, but we'll need to watch how these storms develop this week.
Heat will be an issue for much of the intermountain west and northern US over the next several days, with daytime highs expected to reach triple digits while lows at night don't dip much below the mid-70's. The central and southern parts of the Corn Belt today look like they'll avoid the worst of this heat, with things then expected to return to more average conditions by the weekend and into next week.
The models aren't in perfect agreement but both see the current high pressure ridge breaking down by the first part of next week, with some sort of low pressure feature developing in the northeastern part of the continent that looks like it could dominate a lot of the Corn Belt weather pattern into the end of July and into the first part of August.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
