Closing Markets: Corn: +0.25 old & -0.75 new.
Beans: +3 old & -1.50 new. Wheat: -0.25.
All TFG locations will be closed TOMORROW! July 3rd in observance of Independence Day!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Pre-holiday ag trade at the CBOT was a quiet and uneventful affair on Thursday, with it rather obvious that there weren't many traders around by the final bell as markets drifted quietly into the long holiday weekend. Following the slight run up this week on a tightening global supply situation and better-than-expected Q3 demand in the US, weather is going to start to dominate a lot of the headlines, and there are few if any who want the risk exposure associated with a changing forecast during a long weekend in the middle of summer. Seasonal choppiness, for that reason, likely continues, but we're seeing it increasingly likely that short term bottoms were scored this week in the grain markets.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed mixed/mostly lower on Thursday, with follow-through buying seen this morning fading into the noon hour on little new news and as short covering has possibly ran its course for the time being. Everyone has said the same thing this week, but the fact of the matter is that weather forecasts into the end of July are going to noticeably gain in importance in the coming days/weeks. It's no secret that weather through the pollination period usually makes or breaks a crop, and amid less-than-ideal conditions in a lot of areas to this point already in the season, we see this being an even bigger factor this year. Chinese buying prospects will continue to linger in the background, but for now, it's US weather that will be the most talked about market feature out of the long weekend.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex closed quietly mixed Thursday, with all three of the beans, meal and oil finishing on either side of unchanged on what was a low excitement end to the week ahead of the long weekend. With beans being an August crop, the weather discussion had with corn doesn't overly apply here, which leaves focus on Chinese demand and the ongoing biofuel/crush situation. Price-wise, we would continue to reiterate that there isn't a lot of fundamental reason for futures to trade below $11, but there isn't a lot of reason for a significant rally unless China starts showing up with purchases on a regular basis. Choppy, wide-ranging trade between $11 and $12 looks to be the path of least resistance for the foreseeable future.
Wheat Summary-
Like the other row crop markets, wheat futures put in a quiet day of trade Thursday, finishing within spitting distance of unchanged and spending the entirety of the session within yesterday's range as there was little new specific to the space throughout the day and as volume was constrained due to the holiday. Like we talked about with corn, there's a good chance seasonal bottoms were scored this week with US harvest likely having surpassed the 50% mark, but whether the market rallies from here will be an interesting question going forward due to the somewhat ongoing need to continue to try and generate export business on the world market.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures near unchanged.
Weather Updates-
Mid-day weather forecasts going into the long weekend are little changed, with the models in good agreement on ridge-riding thunderstorm activity continuing to impact the upper Midwest the next few days, before a westward shift brings these rains more in the central parts of the region by the end of the weekend and into the first part of next week.
The convective nature of these systems will make exact rainfall amounts/locations rather difficult to predict, but as things stand this afternoon, the afternoon GFS run between now and the end of the day on Sunday has -3" of rainfall for parts of SD/MN/IA/WI, and then sees a lesser half inch to an inch or so across generally the rest of the Midwest further to the south.
Not going to spend a lot of time with the extended forecasts, as there continue to be notable model differences into the middle of the month regarding pressure in the atmosphere and how the ridge/trough pattern progresses the next couple weeks. Generally speaking, anomaly maps are trying to keep areas east of the Mississippi in a normal to maybe slightly above normal precip pattern with average to maybe slightly below average temperatures, but our confidence in any forecast beyond the next week just isn't great.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
