Closing Markets: Corn: +2.25 old & +2 new.
Beans: +7.75 old & +4.25 new. Wheat: -6.75 old & -4.75 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Mixed closes were had across the CBOT at mid-week on Wednesday, as early-morning strength faded in the wheat and meal markets, driving prices here lower into the close while the rest of the space chugged along to the upside on another of new contract highs in bean oil and ongoing strength in the crude oil market. We've said it before but will simply continue reiterating that the current grain rally is based on almost entirely on two things: one, drought conditions in the wheat belt that are leading to significant production impacts, and two, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has seriously disrupted world trade flows.
Corn Summary-
More of the same in the corn market on Wednesday, as futures once again settled higher on strength in crude oil and with private analysts in Brazil having slowly over the last couple weeks started to trim production forecasts for the safrinha crop. We continue to reiterate that these losses are not going to show up on world balance sheets due to offsetting increases in Argentina, but the headlines have at least been enough to get spec traders to want to bet the long side of the market for the time being. Adding to the strength marginally also are rumors that planted acreage in the US this year could fall further amid more early soybeans being planted than had been originally anticipated, which in theory could further tighten the balance sheet.
Soybean Summary-
Products once again dominated most of the chatter in the soy complex on Wednesday, though early week focus shifted from the meal to the oil amid another round of new contract highs by the latter. For meal, the day started similar to other this week as the market scored another new high, but selling quickly emerged to then drive things lower, indicating the HB4 rally may have gotten a little over its skis. The Netherlands, as far as we understand, are the only bloc member who tests for HB4, meaning shipments to other EU nations should continue as normal for now. Of the 10-11 MMTs of meal imports that typically come into the EU, the Netherlands accounts for roughly 15% of this total.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw a corrective close lower on Wednesday, though Chicago futures still scored new highs for the move first this morning before the selling emerged shortly after the 9am central hour. Strength, for the most part, continues to be centered primarily on the worsening Plains drought, but as the board continues to rise, we, like many others, are beginning to shift the focus of the question of import potential into the US more to a tone of when rather than if. Such a scenario would obviously be bearish the board, but we would see this as also being negative cash markets from a basis standpoint should it be confirmed. Keep in mind also that should production be cut on the upcoming May WASDE update, we would assume feed use and exports will be cut as well, somewhat limiting the drop in ending stocks.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $8.00/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Not a lot new to talk about on the weather front this afternoon, as forecasts are little changed from previous runs in continuing to show a mostly cool/dry outlook for the Corn Belt the rest of the week this week and into next week, while storms and rainfall stay active across the southeast. Notable in the forecast are rains for KS/NE the middle of next week, but our confidence in this forecast is not overly high.
The models have the system that brings this KS rain then working north and east through the rest of the Corn Belt, meaning this will likely be the most watched forecast feature the next couple days and through the weekend, along with frost concerns that remain present for generally the northern half of the Midwest.
Model runs for the week two period were also mostly unchanged again this afternoon, with there still being fair agreement on cooler, wetter weather lingering through much of the eastern US and along the East Coast into May 13th. Meteorologists continue to, for the most part, doubt this outlook beyond the first week of May and see a return back to more warmer weather for the region, but the models are not supportive of this today.
There was also again little change in the forecast for South America over the last 24 hours, as models continue to be in good agreement on little to no rainfall for the bulk of the growing regions both in Argentina and Brazil over the next week or so, while temperatures stay on the warmer side for Brazil and more near normal for Argentina.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
