Closing Markets: Corn: -3.50 old & -3 new.
Beans: -2.50 old & -2 new. Wheat: -18.75 old & -17.75 new.
All Topflight locations will be closed Friday, April 3rd in observance of Good Friday!!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
CBOT ag markets saw turn-around-Wednesday price action throughout the day today, with the beans and wheat giving back what they gained on Tuesday while the corn market also traded lower but finished off the lows. The leader in the space to the downside though was bean oil, who sold off along with crude oil on headlines of a potential end to the war in Iran. We've talked about it for weeks, but there is war premium in CBOT ag markets and funds have gotten long in large part because of the happenings in the Middle East; should the war come to an end, we expect some sort of position covering correction to unfold.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed lower on Wednesday, with selling in the crude oil and bean oil markets acting as an anchor on the space throughout the day. We talked about it yesterday but will reiterate this afternoon that yesterday's numbers, while talking points for traders and the markets, meant very little in terms of longer term fundamentals. Remember last year, the USDA on March 31st printed almost the exact same 95.3 million acre number, only for final to be up some 3.5 million by the time it was all said and done. We're not saying this is likely to happen again this year and understand the geopolitical backdrop now is notably different than it was a year ago, but are just pointing out that things can change a lot over the next 5 months. And similarly for the stocks number, it will also be several months before we find out whether yesterday's miss was the result of demand being better than expected or the crop being smaller than expected.
Soybean Summary-
The bean market closed lower on Wednesday also, with selling in the oils also the main culprit here on what was an otherwise fairly quiet news day in terms of headlines. Amid all the new geopolitical happenings in the Middle East, the recently announced RVO mandates, and now the new spring acreage debate, the China situation has been pushed to the back burner a bit. However, we would argue that this continues to have the biggest impact on longer term price direction, as whether or not Beijing does or doesn't make additional US purchases will have the most impact on ending stocks both for the current marketing year and for the 2026/27 marketing year. In the short term though, the market will likely try and encourage additional acres following yesterday's somewhat smaller than expected figure.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures finished lower on Wednesday and gave back most of the rally started last week as weather forecasts have continued to add rains for the Plains wheat belt in the 10-day period. Wheat also saw the most premium injected when things took off in the Middle East originally, which would theoretically mean it has the most to give back should the war come to an end. The $6 mark has been a bit of a gravitational point over most of the last month, and we see this remaining the case in the short term.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $1.50+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Weather forecasts for the Midwest have continued to trend wetter over the course of the next week, as an active flow pattern continues to keep the central and eastern parts of the country open to good moisture flow. Rainfall totals through the end of the day on Sunday are estimated at an additional 1-3" generally speaking, with additional totals possible then the back half of next week.
Temperatures will remain variable into the weekend and next week, as things stay warmer than average for the most part in general but will also see periods of cooler air as the low-pressure systems continue to bring colder air along with them.
Forecasts in the extended period are little changed this afternoon from yesterday's runs. Models remain in good agreement on a wet corridor through the central part of the country into the middle of April as high pressure stays anchored across the southeast, while this high pressure also keeps temperatures across the eastern US generally warmer than normal. Similar high pressure off the West Coast also keeps the western US warm, with just a small pocket in the north-central part of the country seeing any sort of lasting cooler air potential over the next couple weeks.
After trending drier through most of the week last week, forecasts across Brazil have gone back wetter the last couple days across a lot of the central growing regions. Argentina, meanwhile, has seen little change in the forecast, with increasing rainfall expected across the south through the end of the week this week and into the weekend. As the growing season winds down, it will be temperature swings and frost concerns that become more talked about than rainfall.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
