Closing Markets: Corn: -8.75 old & -8 new.
Beans: -0.50 old & -5.50 new. Wheat: -10.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
It was turn-around-Wednesday at the CBOT this week for most of the ag markets besides bean oil, as the buying seen the last couple days dried up a bit at mid-week amid a marginally improving ten day forecast and as there was some sort of the buy the rumor, sell the fact trade present on the Chinese bean purchase announcements. Meanwhile, renewed headlines out of the Middle East led to premium going back into the crude oil market, which in turn, spilled over into bean oil futures.
Corn Summary-
It was a correction day in the corn market Wednesday, with both old and new crop futures generally giving back what they gained on Tuesday amid a slightly more friendly shift in the forecast and as the fund short covering from earlier in the week seems to have subsided a bit. We're beating the dead horse a bit, but simply cannot stress the importance weather has on price discovery over the next 4-5 weeks through pollination. Old crop exports are likely going to get bumped up Friday, but the question is whether or not ethanol use gets inversely cut at the same time, limiting the impact on ending stocks. Months ago we mentioned that demand prospects weren't likely to get much better than they were/are, and this generally remains true today. With that being the case, an added emphasis has been put on the supply side of the equation as it pertains to how tight balance sheets will be able to get by harvest.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean oil futures gapped higher on the open last night on renewed strength in the energy markets, finishing the day 3-4% higher and lifting the beans with them for a portion of the morning before selling emerged there along with the rest of the ag markets. Aside from the bean oil influence though, it was largely a buy the rumor, sell the fact day as expected Chinese bean purchases were finally announced but had been completely priced in already. However, we wouldn't be surprised if additional sales showed up the remainder of the week, which could spur additional buying barring the USDA dropping some kind of a bomb on report day Friday.
Wheat Summary-
It was a quiet day in the wheat world Wednesday, as futures closed lower with the corn market on a lack of fresh news and as prices seemed to find resistance at the old June high. Choppy trade on either side of the $6 mark has become common place over the last couple weeks, and even though harvest hedge pressure in the US likely subsides sooner than later at this point, we don't know that this general sideways pattern changes unless more information comes out regarding crops and heat damage in Europe.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $4.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Following a decent size storm system across the northern and northwestern parts of the Midwest today and tonight, rainfall is largely seen shifting south then into the weekend and next week. This afternoon's GFS run continues to be wetter than the EU model through the central part of the Midwest, but the EU has continued to be the more accurate of the two.
The more average temperature pattern seen across a lot of the country the last week or so looks to give way heat by the weekend and the first part of next week, as ridging brings daytime highs in the western and northern parts of the country back to well above normal. That said, today's runs have the most extreme heat largely staying north and west of the main Corn Belt growing areas, with this being one of the larger points of interest into next week.
We continue to have low confidence in the forecast beyond the next week or so, as the models are notably different on the forecast beyond next week. The EU model sees high pressure lingering across the eastern US, but the GFS has put in a sizeable low pressure trough through the region that would produce a noticeable pullback in temperatures and likely also increase rainfall. This is likely to be the most watched feature through the three-day holiday weekend and into next week.
The heat mentioned above is seen working slightly further east by the end of next week and into the following weekend, but is not seen lingering into the last 10 days of the month. We've talked about it all week, but how this next round of high pressure progresses and what the pattern does thereafter will likely go a long way in determining US corn yield prospects.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
