Closing Markets: Corn: +9.25 old & +8 new.
Beans: +4.75 old & +10.25 new. Wheat: +14.50 old & +14.75 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Except for soybean oil, grain and soy prices closed higher to sharply higher on Wednesday on what ended up being a strong day of new money inflows across the space, especially in the corn and wheat markets. Unfortunately, we still don't have much of anything to point to in terms of a reason for the rally, but would just continue to note that ongoing geopolitical tensions have led to increased spec/algorithm trading that is minimally concerned with currently constructed market fundamentals. These wide price swings in most all of the ag markets are not a result of changing weather, policy, or anything else; they are simply the result of money flows, which makes them nearly impossible to predict on a day-to-day basis.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures saw strong closes on Wednesday, though were still unable to trade to new highs for the week despite buyers being active throughout most all of the session. A 10-cent rally would typically have some sort of reason to justify it, but much like has been the case the last several weeks and as we also touched on above, that just simply isn't the case today. Crude oil futures trading higher throughout most of the session likely had something to do with the strength, but we have little in the way of explanation for today's action otherwise. In our opinion, and with as much as outside volatility going on as there is, anything between 4.40 and 4.70 spot is seemingly fair game at this point until new information is gathered either via political progress in Iran or via spring US acreage data in another couple weeks.
Soybean Summary-
The bean market saw choppy, two-sided price action on Wednesday, with an early-morning sell-off giving way to buying once the day session got going, leading prices to higher closes by the end of the day this afternoon. Spread activity in the products was also a noted feature throughout the day, with meal able to rally back near the highs made over the last month while oil came under selling pressure after popping back to the highs made on Monday. Of note this week has been general strength in new crop futures, which have led to a significant amount of spread activity and we assume has been based somewhat on export considerations and also acreage considerations this spring. In theory, the postponement of the US-China meeting could mean two things: one, that exports originally slotted for the old crop now get shifted to the new crop; and two, that farmers see a deal as less likely now and don't decide to plant as many fringe acres to beans on ideas that China won't keep prices propped up. Both would be more friendly new crop futures than old, and would seem to make sense in terms of recent spread activity.
Wheat Summary-
Along with the corn market, wheat futures led the space higher on Wednesday as both weather and war premium were injected into the futures. Time will tell on the weather front, as concern is stemming from wild swings in temperatures this week, while the Middle East situation remains highly unpredictable. Russian exports are ticking up, which is also likely helping lift the global market as a whole.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $3.50+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Following light snow/precip from a northern clipper across parts of the upper and central Midwest last night and into this morning, Midwest precip forecasts now go over noticeably drier into the back half of the week next week and end of the month. Models are in good agreement on moisture remaining present for the far northeastern part of the country, but this precip stays east of the main growing regions in the Corn Belt.
Along with the dryness, there is also good model agreement on a warm-up occurring across most all of the US beginning today and stretching into the weekend, before things are seen moderating a bit back to more normal levels again by the middle/end of next week.
Week two forecasts continue to show a similar pattern to that described above, and have been unchanged in this outlook for several days now. Precip-wise, there are parts of the northeast and northern Great Lakes regions that see slightly better-than-normal precip chances but the rest of the country otherwise stays dry, and on temperatures, there continue to be little if any signs of cooler air returning to the US for any sort of extended period into the first part of April.
Will continue not spending a lot of time with the forecast in South America, as the overall pattern remains generally unchanged for the time being and is, for the most part, non-threatening across most all of both Brazil and Argentina. Starting to the north, there are signs of pattern change occurring across northern and north-central Brazil beyond the first of April that would see a drier outlook for places there while the southern part of Brazil turns wetter.
For Argentina, the pattern shift looks to usher in a drier period, but there is little to no concern at present amid early corn harvest already being underway and as soil moisture reserves are adequate to surplus throughout most all of the country following good rains over the last 3-5 weeks.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
