Closing Markets: Corn: +6 old & +6.25 new.
Beans: +9 old & +5.50 new. Wheat: +10.75.
All TFG locations will be closed Friday, July 3rd in observance of Independence Day!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets finished mostly higher at mid-week on Wednesday, building on the gains seen yesterday and scoring new highs for the week as traders are still assessing just how tight the world grain position could become in the months ahead and into next year. With funds having built moderate net-short positions in the grains over the last several weeks and another three-day holiday weekend approaching, we would assume short-covering has been at least partially to blame for the buying, but would also add that there is simply little reason fundamentally that corn should trade below $4, beans below $11, or wheat below $6 with half the growing season still in front of us and weather having been less than perfect so far.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed higher on Wednesday, trading above the report day high made yesterday but still below the high made last week on Friday as we imagine fund traders continued to cover some of their short positions following yesterday's stocks data and with there being little new news otherwise. We mentioned it briefly yesterday, but the question now as it pertains to US production becomes what happens with yield and is the current 183 bu/acre estimate feasible. We mention production because from here, it's really just this and whether or not China returns as a buyer - which we have little way of predicting - that will be the biggest drivers of corn prices into the harvest season. It's not exciting, but we see it likely that the market trades in a fairly wide 4.00-4.50 range over the next couple months, with a move outside of this dependent on what size crop comes out of the ground this fall.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished mixed Wednesday in a similar fashion to what was seen on Tuesday, with the beans and meal higher while the oil traded lower on generally the same news that was present to end the day yesterday. Cash rumors regarding Chinese interest are becoming more common but generally remain unconfirmed, which leaves focus in large part on bean oil demand and crush margins that, while off the highs, are still quite strong. There isn't a lot new otherwise, with yesterday's reports being generally ho-hum and weather not likely to gain in importance as it pertains to yield until the calendar flips to August.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed higher on Wednesday, seeing similar buying to the corn market on both what is likely to be fund short covering and spillover from data yesterday showing the lowest US winter wheat harvested area back nearly to the days of the Civil War. Though it's not a huge quantity, the market also likely saw support Wednesday from headlines that the US and Bangladesh had reached a purchase agreement for them to take 220,000 MTs of US wheat at a price of $322/MT despite there being cheaper global offers elsewhere. Whether political or not, any US export business is welcome amid what have been generally uncompetitive prices for the last several months.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $2.95+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
As has been the case all week, mid-day model runs this afternoon again trended wetter through the central parts of the Midwest beyond the weekend and into next week, which is raising our confidence in a weakening of the high-pressure ridge as it retrogrades back west after another three or four days.
Rainfall will still largely be the product of thunderstorm activity around the periphery of the ridge, but as the ridge shifts, the storm path is seen moving south into more the central Midwest, which will help alleviate some of the heat stress. This afternoon's GFS run has rainfall of 1-4" the next seven days scattered across an area from the Dakotas to the Carolinas, though the bulk of this doesn't show up until after the weekend.
We continue to have low confidence in the forecast beyond the next week or so, as the models are notably different on the forecast beyond next week. The EU model sees high pressure lingering across the eastern US, but the GFS has put in a sizeable low pressure trough through the region that would produce a noticeable pullback in temperatures and likely also increase rainfall. This is likely to be the most watched feature through the three-day holiday weekend and into next week.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
