Closing Markets: Corn: +2.75 old & +3.25 new.
Beans: +8.75 old & +6.50 new. Wheat: -1.75.
PLEASE JOIN US NEXT WEEK FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets saw mixed but mostly higher closes at mid-week on Wednesday, with corn, beans and the products all managing to shrug off morning sell pressure to work higher and finish in the green day by the end of day. The wheat market, though, was unable to come along for the ride and stayed lower all day before extending its current losing streak to three.
Corn Summary-
Higher closes were had in the corn market on Wednesday as spread activity ahead of Friday's first notice day on the March contract seemed to be the only real feature of note throughout the session. The ongoing stories of E15 in the US, struggling exports out of Ukraine, and good crop prospects in Argentina and Brazil are beginning to become a bit of old news, with the next topic of interest in our opinion being the March quarterly stocks/seedings report that will be out in another month or so. In the meantime, we anticipate market direction as likely staying sideways and choppy and would assume that the funds sit on close to a neutral position for some period of time here ahead of the new US growing season.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures traded nearly a 20-cent range on Wednesday on both sides of the fence before closing in the green, while the product markets also finished higher and were led by a pop in meal. Like previous days this week, headlines and market chatter were almost entirely centered on the EPA/biofuels, though we continue to scratch our heads a bit as to why the headlines are causing so much market movement. To reiterate what happened today, the RVO, which the EPA had allegedly already finalized some time ago, was sent to the White House Office of Management and Budget, where it will now undergo a roughly 2-4 week review process before then being signed into law. The mandated number, to our knowledge, has not been leaked, which means we really know little more today than we did a week ago other than that the proposal has actually made it to the desks of those at the White House. We aren't speculating as to future price moves, but would simply state that it appears the market has priced in a considerable amount of policy optimism over the last roughly two months; be aware of buy the rumor, sell the fact type trade.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed lower for a third straight session on Wednesday, with the 200-day moving average that used to be resistance now firmly in the market's sights as the next solid support level the rest of the week this week. As was the case most of the way up, we have little to no good explanation aside from spec/fund activity for the three-day slide; there are rumors that Argy wheat could possibly work into the US southeast, but we haven't heard a ton of chatter on this front and therefor are having a hard time putting much credence in it. At the end of the day, the global picture (Russian exports and their values) remains little changed, with time being needed to asses future pace as weather/logistics begin to improve.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures have seen two-sided trade and are near unchanged
Weather Updates-
Models continue to be in good agreement on the short term forecast for the US this afternoon, with rainfall still seen impacting the southeast tomorrow/Friday, while another system then looks to bring a mix of rain/snow/ice to an area further north through the central Midwest Sunday into Monday next week. Total precipitation is seen ranging from a tenth or two to around an inch according to this afternoon's GFS run, which is the drier of the two models.
Like we've talked about previously this week, temperatures will be somewhat variable across the Midwest over the next week. Highs through the area look to continue trending well above normal into the end of the week, before a brief cold spell settles in in the central/eastern part of the region to cool things back off again for a couple days. However, by the middle of next week, warmer air is likely able to push this cold back north, keeping much of the Midwest mild through the first part of March.
Precipitation forecasts in the extended period trended wetter again the last 24 hours, with both the EU and the GFS, as well as the Climate Prediction Center, all seeing a notable increase in moisture throughout the central and east-central parts of the country into the middle of March. Temperature-wise, outlooks remain similar to previous days this week, with the 10-15 day forecast still showing much warmer than normal highs across a lot of the US, especially in the eastern half.
Argentina will likely continue to be drier the rest of the week before models still see rains returning to ag areas this weekend and into the first part of next week. Temperatures have trended a little warmer the next five days, but amid recent boosts in soil moisture, don't look to be a large concern at this point.
Meanwhile, Brazil will see ongoing drier conditions throughout the far south and the southwest and then over into Paraguay and Argentina, as models have kept this dry pocket in place for another day this afternoon. Regular rains continue to the north, but there are beginning to be questions regarding crop loss in the extreme south of the country. Temps look to be slightly warmer than normal through these drier southern areas, but rains to the north keep things here average to slightly below average.
