Closing Markets: Corn: +0.75 old & +1.25 new.
Beans: +6.50 old & +2.75 new. Wheat: -3.25.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets saw a wide-ranging, bumpy day of trade on Tuesday before closing generally in the middle of their trading ranges, as outside market jitters from the Iran situation have continued to have a noticeable impact on ag pricing throughout the first couple days of the week. New news has been slow otherwise, with there still no sign that China buys additional US beans and as there continues to be nearly zero weather issues to speak of throughout any of the world's major producers.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures saw trade throughout the day on Tuesday that was inside of Monday's range before closing slightly higher, as news in the market continues to be slow and with the funds having now reached a neutral position for the first time in several months. As far as the funds go, we assume they likely stay neutral for a bit here until more is known with US-China hopefully at the end of the month, which will also coincide with the trade maybe having a little better handle on what spring acreage plans look like. Charts are in a steady uptrend, but we see little else from a fundamental standpoint at present that justifies optimism towards an ongoing, sustained price rally.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex closed higher Tuesday but generally in the middle of its trading ranges as neither the bulls nor the bears were seemingly able to grab control throughout the course of the day on what ended up also being a slow day for news here as well. The bottom line for the beans remains rather simple: additional buying is likely needed from China to make the current export forecast accurate, and if they don't, ending stocks balloon back above 300 mil bu and likely pressure prices throughout the rest of the year with normal US weather. Harvest in Brazil is nearing the 2/3s complete mark and with export prices still well below those in the states into spring, this means world soy almost entirely shifts here in the next 4-6 weeks. Unless China resumes buying for political purposes (and we stress that there is no other logical economic reason to do so), the slow, seasonal decline to the US export season is likely approaching.
Wheat Summary-
Despite ongoing tensions throughout the Middle East, wheat futures saw a somewhat quieter day of trade on Tuesday in the Chicago market, with prices backing up from an overnight rally first thing this morning to trade lower throughout most of the day, only to then reverse again and finish off the lows and closer to unchanged. Like in the other markets, geopolitics has dominated most all the headlines the last couple days and left little room for any other discussion, which has produced choppy price action. And furthermore, like we discussed yesterday, recent COT data shows the funds have largely covered the bulk of their net-short position, which means the market has lost a source of buying. Yesterday's high now looks even more significant.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $3.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Forecasts are little changed this afternoon through the Midwest and eastern part of the country, with radar showing the first of several storm systems expected the next 10-15 days working its way across the central Corn Belt. Models are still calling for upwards of 3-4" of rainfall across a wide swath of the eastern US over the next 10-15 days, while temperatures are seen staying mostly warm in the period.
As high pressure in the southeast begins to slide east, the better rain potential in the extended forecast has also shifted east a bit, with the models still in good agreement. Temperatures, meanwhile, are like yesterday, with the GFS notably warmer in the 10-15 day period in the east than the EU is, though both have heat returning to the west.
Models have a line of storms working out of east-central Argentina and into some of the drier areas of far southern Brazil this weekend, with totals ranging from 1-2". There is a pocket through east-central Paraguay and into neighboring parts of Brazil that remain on the drier side, but this area is getting smaller with each subsequent model run. As has been the case for week, there continues to be little to no heat concern, which helps aid crops.
Enjoy it! Thank you to all who attended our 2026 Focus Meetings!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
