Closing Markets: Corn: -2.50 old & -2.75 new.
Beans: -4 old & -3.75 new. Wheat: +9.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets in Chicago closed mixed/mostly lower on Tuesday, but were off their lows made in the overnight session as selling generally dried up a bit on a decline in volume as the morning went along. News-wise, there was an overall focus on the other side of the world again with the Sea of Azov and the Strait of Hormuz being the center of most headlines throughout the day today, along with the ongoing weather conversation, and this led to a somewhat choppy session amid more debate over topics that have already been fairly well chewed on.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed lower on Tuesday, further rejecting the move to new highs seen on Monday as outside of short covering, there still doesn't seem to be an overly large group wanting to get long the market despite a threatening forecast this week and another drop in ending stocks by the USDA in their latest monthly update. We continue to have confidence that seasonal lows, albeit early, are likely in, however, this does not mean the market is going to start a late summer price rally that goes straight up and carries into fall. Global corn supply and trade is likely to be down in 2026/27 from the year prior, but until the market has a better understanding of how much, price moves are likely to be choppy and non-committal.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was mixed Tuesday, with bean oil seeing a wide-swinging day on more headlines/developments in the Middle East but there little new of note otherwise. Today was the first day of the last several that didn't start with a sales flash to China, and while not necessarily a reason for the selling that occurred, it sheds light on the fact that there is still a long way to go before the much discussed 25 MMT purchase agreement is met. And with China having a history of not living up to agreements it makes with the US, it becomes exceedingly difficult to try and make balance sheet forecasts that assume such a large unknown. Production, like we've discussed, is the most important of these variables, but the next several months could possibly see large adjustments made on the demand side depending on how things develop geopolitically, which impacts ending stocks and thereby futures prices.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures were back to adding war premium on Tuesday, as much of the headlines specific to the space continue to center on shipping in the Sea of Azov and what kind of disruption its closure might cause to global grain trade. As mentioned above, ongoing attacks would have us assuming any sort of resolution is not likely close, but there is seemingly little way of knowing today how long this situation could drag out for amid growing pressure on both sides to find an economic means to force an end to the conflict. With US production down as much as it is, an extended disruption in exportable supplies out of the Black Sea becomes an even bigger factor for the market, and it’s this that is the basis for Chicago futures being up some 40 cents from where they were trading the middle of last week.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $1.50+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Not a lot to discuss on the short term forecast this afternoon, as models continue to see central US high pressure largely dominating the pattern for the rest of the week, keeping precip both to the north and south of the Corn Belt and also keeping temperatures on the warmer side of average.
Though not overly concerning from an agricultural standpoint, flooding will possibly be an issue through parts of TX the rest of the week and into next, as the models are calling for rain in excess of 6-7" between now and Friday on the southern side of the high-pressure ridge.
As the ridge is still seen retrograding back to the west next week, models have remained in good agreement on ridge-riding thunderstorms that have been pushed further to the north this week likely being brought further south and more into the heart of the Midwest by next week, though exact locations/rainfall amounts will remain difficult to predict.
There is also still good model agreement on some sort of low-pressure trough forming to the northeast into the end of the month, which should limit any additional extreme heat episodes for much of the Corn Belt and bring about more seasonally average to maybe even below average temps.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
