Closing Markets: Corn: -4.
Beans: -6.50. Wheat: -20.25.
All TFG Locations will be closed Saturday September 5th- Monday, September 7th in observance of Labor Day!
TFG is offering a drying incentive at ALL LOCATIONS Tuesday 8th - Sunday 13th!
2 1/2 cents per pt of moisture up to 30%. Regular rate above.
Harvest hours will be used as needed!
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Happy Friday. Ag futures markets were mostly lower heading into the long holiday weekend on Friday, with wheat the downside leader in the space on position squaring and risk adjustment ahead of what looks to be a three-day period that is ripe for headline risk. On top of that, there's a WASDE update scheduled for the end of next week and harvest is likely to get started in some capacity the next 10 days, and those two things are only going to add to the volatility that's already emerged the last 2-3 weeks. Our lean is still bullish, but we are going to continue to stress risk management going forward as the upside money isn't likely to keep coming as easily as it has of late. At today's close, corn futures are still more than a dollar off their summer lows and soybean futures are nearly $2 off their summer lows.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed quietly lower on Friday in what was a thinning day of trade into the close, with a lot of participants seemingly getting a head start on the long holiday weekend beyond mid-morning. With harvest still not quite under way and conversations looming regarding the situation in the Black Sea, traders unsurprisingly took the wait-and-see approach to the weekend, and decided they'd be better off seeing where things stand next week before continuing to try and press the long side. That said, with it being assumed that the washout seen the last two days knocked out some of the weaker longs, we wouldn't be at all surprised to see strength on the open Monday evening barring some sort of bearish development between Russia and Ukraine. And even if that does occur, the supply situation in the Black Sea isn't the only reason funds are wanting to be long corn and there's a good chunk of industry talking heads saying inflation and El Niño risks alone should keep their position fairly large until at least the end of Q1 next year. Like we've said all week, a few lower days doesn't mean the overall bull market has ended.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was lower to end the week on Friday, with all three members of the group in the red on what was generally a corrective end to the week across the whole of the space. Where the Black Sea has been friendly the grains, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on world energy values has remained friendly the soy complex from a biofuel standpoint. Recent buying in the complex has also undoubtedly been the result of what most feel are declining US crops amid the high heat seen throughout much of the back half of August and into September. Lastly, whether warranted or not, traders seem to think the next round of trade talks with China in another couple weeks is going to produce more positive tailwinds for the space, and this has also likely produced some portion of the recent buying. Like we talked about with corn, amid the bevy of ongoing stories that lean supportive, a day or two correction does not mean the bull market is over for the beans.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures led the push to the downside to end the week this week, with it clear that was some measure or risk reduction going on ahead of the long weekend and what are expected to be bilateral talks between both the US and Russia and also the US and Ukraine. American efforts towards diplomacy have yielded little if anything to this point, but amid what seems to being growing pressure for something to change from the rest of the world as well, traders at least see a chance that a breakthrough could occur heading into next week. Furthermore, the old idea that long weekends and holidays can sometimes bring about changes in trend was also likely at play to some degree today given just how much spec money has presumably come into the market over the last few weeks. Today was simply all about risk reduction; depending on what headlines come about the next 72 hours or so, Monday evening's markets could look vastly different.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.15+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Weekend weather across most of the Corn Belt will be similar to previous days this week, as high pressure ridging remains anchored across the south-central US, pushing rains to the north and keeping temperatures above average. Ridge-riding thunderstorms look to provide scattered rains to parts of MN and WI the next 72 hours or so, but totals look to average around a half inch or throughout most of the area.
While still generally hot overall, temperatures do look to cool off just a bit Sunday and into the first part of the week next week for some of the eastern and northeastern parts of the region, but the central part of the country further to the west will likely stay hot.
Extended forecasts remain stuck and in large part are still showing a continuation of the current pattern, with there little sign into the back half of the month of any sort of pattern shift occurring. For much of the Corn Belt, hot and dry looks to continue to be the them unless/until the large low pressure trough currently in the western US can push its way east.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
