Closing Markets: Corn: +5.75 old & +5.25 new.
Beans: +13.50 old & +10 new. Wheat: +13.25 old & +13 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Row crop futures were higher to sharply higher by the closing bell on Monday, with the meal market generally pacing gains in the space throughout the day on a combination of fundamental news out of the EU and ongoing strength in the energy markets as an end to the war in Iran still seems rather far off today. The buying permeated the entire space, and along with headlines touting cooler weather in the forecast as problematic for germination that were abundant throughout the morning, produced a 'risk-on' day to start the week.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures finished higher to start the week on Monday, but were largely followers in the space as strength in the both the wheat market and the soy complex far outweighed any action in the corn market. We talked about it all week last week, and really for several weeks before that, but the corn market is in want-and-see mode and there just isn't a lot to speak of fundamentally otherwise. Yes, there are parts of Brazil that are seeing production losses in the safrinha corn crop, but its not country-wide (Mato Grosso will be good) and what losses there are to this point are likely more than going to be made up by upward adjustments to the crop in Argentina. Ethanol is at its cheapest level ever relative to gasoline, but we still don't seem any closer to year-round E15 today than we were a year ago and the supply situation via northern hemisphere planting progress updates doesn't seem to be getting any tighter.
Soybean Summary-
Monday strength in the soy complex was largely the result of meal trade, which was sharply higher throughout most of the morning on the weekend headlines out of Argentina/the EU. Without getting too into the weeds on HB4, its a genetic trait that came from sunflowers some 10-15 years ago that was inserted in soybeans to increase drought tolerance. The gene was approved in the US in 2019 and in China in 2022, but has yet to be approved in Europe which prompted the cargo rejections by the Netherlands. Total EU meal imports over the last couple marketing years have totaled around 20 MMTs, with over half of this usually being sourced from Argentina. This was, in large part, the fundamental aspect driving meal trade on Monday, and as a result, trade in the rest of the complex also. Otherwise, this afternoon's planting progress update is expected to show another week of steady fieldwork across the Midwest, with things still expected to be slightly ahead of normal.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw higher closes along with the other markets to get the week started, driven by strength in the energy markets which continue to have more influence on wheat than the other ag markets. There was also a bit of a reversal in the spread activity between the Chicago and KC markets seen last week, though it doesn't seem anyone has a particularly good reason as to why other than things just having gone a little too far too quickly the last several sessions. Add in another drier shift in the forecast for the southern plains, and wheat futures had somewhat of a perfect storm to close the day higher on Monday.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $2.00/bbl.
Weather Updates-
A fairly large/potent low pressure system worked its way across the central and north-central parts of the US throughout the night last night and through the day today, but things look to turn drier now for much of the Midwest over the next week or so. The models have small, light precip chances passing through the area intermittently into next week, but our confidence in these is not high and if they do occur, they likely won't put down any sort of notable rainfall.
The shifting pattern also looks to bring about a drop off in daytime highs across much of the eastern US over the next week-10 days, with anomaly maps now showing much of the region in a cooler bias into next week while heat returns to parts of the US west of the Rockies.
Precip forecasts in the extended period are in poor agreement coming out of the weekend, with the EU model's week two anomaly outlook notably wetter through the southeastern and eastern parts of the US than the GFS is. Both have a pocket of better moisture centered mostly over the state of CO in the period and both are also drier through the north-central part of the country and the northern Plains, but this is generally where the similarities between the two end.
The cooler weather mentioned above isn't expected to last an overly long time, as most meteorologists and longer term models have indicated a return to warmth via another round of high pressure ridging by somewhere around the 10th of May. Timing on this shift will be a question mark, but for now, the cooler air isn't expected to last into mid-May.
High pressure ridging across the Brazilian Cerrado will continue to be a concern for safrinha corn production this week, as the models continue to show little if any rainfall for much of the region over at least the next ten days. Dryness will also be present across most all of Argentina, but is less a concern here due to it helping to advance harvest. The extended forecast has rain returning to Argentina May 8/9/10, but there is no sign of this occurring further to the north in Brazil.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
