Closing Markets: Corn: +6.75 old & +6.50 new.
Beans: +3.50 old & +6.25 new. Wheat: +2.50.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Much of the ag space saw a classic turn-around-Tuesday following the sell-off seen to start the week, with yesterday's "get-me-out" selling likely being overdone a bit to the downside and things bouncing today as a result. We touched on this a little yesterday, but until some sort of resolution is found on either of the two war fronts or national crop yields become known in the US, while corrections might be sharp (like yesterday), they should be limited to just that - a correction. Unfortunately, this is the price of doing business in a computer-heavy trading environment with a lot of irons in the fire, and this likely isn't the last time we such a price move to either start or finish a week.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed higher on Tuesday, failing to fall below the low made to start the week and recovering a good bit of the losses seen Monday on technical trading and a marginally more threatening weather forecast by the mid-day GFS run. We mention the weather run, but would also add caution in putting a ton of credibility in the American model forecast that has been variable from run-to-run and seen its skill scores drop off drastically at times over the last couple weeks. Otherwise, it was a lot of the same on Tuesday, with risk assessment in the Black Sea region ongoing and the yield debate regarding the US crop only continuing to grow. We've said it before but will continue to reiterate that the demand side of the market is bullish; its the supply side that is in question and that will determine just what kind of price move the bullish demand can produce.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was mixed Tuesday, with the beans seeing a recovery bounce off the lows made Monday, the oil seeing additional selling with world energy markets, and the meal mixed and caught in the middle. Like our comments made on corn, a lot of the price action throughout the day today was technical in nature, with new crop futures trading into the open chart gap but not quite filling it while the old crop did manage to fill its gap. Otherwise, the only new Chinese new for the day was the auction updates mentioned above, with there being no new sales show up on the daily wire this morning. A drop in yield of a bushel or two makes a noted difference on the new crop balance sheet, and this, along with the prospect of Chinese demand, is likely to keep the bean market on the volatile side for the time being.
Wheat Summary-
The wheat market closed in the green Tuesday, though without a lot of vigor of prices were largely in the middle of the trading ranges seen throughout the course of the day. Daily price action continues to be, in large part, a result of happenings in the Black Sea region, and this is likely to remain ongoing in the short term.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $3.85+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Mid-day weather runs this afternoon moved some of the heavier rainfall totals expected later this week further north and west, but were otherwise little changed in the overall pattern. We've talked about it for days, but the models are going to struggle with the exact path of these ridge-riding thunderstorms, meaning rainfall forecasts are likely going to be variable and inaccurate.
While moisture forecasts are a bit all over the place, the models remain in good agreement on their temperature outlook, with much of the eastern US expected to be on the cooler side of normal through the weekend and into next week, while heat remains generally confined to areas west of the Rocky Mountains.
Not a lot new today in the extended forecasts, as models continue to show mixed signals across a majority of the Midwest in terms of precip potential into the middle of August. Troughing across the Hudson Bay has given the northeast an above average chance at rainfall in the period, but the Corn Belt and the bulk of the Midwest in general see average to slightly below average rainfall chances.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
