Closing Markets: Corn: +3 old & +2.50 new.
Beans: -8.50 old & -2.75 new. Wheat: +2.25 old & +2 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Though overall market themes were again little changed on Tuesday from previous days the last couple weeks, there was a bit of a divergence in price trends throughout the day, with the oil joining the grains in trading higher while the beans and meal traded lower. Aside from ongoing headlines out of the Middle East, traders the next coupled days will be intently focused on the EPA's RVO announcement, which is now expected at some point tomorrow or Thursday. We are hopeful that this and the looming quarterly stocks and acreage update due a week from today will allow grain and soy markets to go back to trading their own fundamentals, but would add that if the war remains ongoing, there is a good possibility that this doesn't occur anytime real soon.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures saw gains of 2-3 cents across the board on Tuesday, led to the upside mostly by strength in the crude oil market and as there are enough weather concern possibilities around the globe to at least keep the trade interested. In the US, soil moisture maps are better than they were a month ago for most of the Corn Belt but still show sizeable areas with significant deficits; and in Brazil, early signs of a shift to a drier outlook by mid-April have brought safrinha yields into question for some of the later planted crops. These issues are not immediate crop threats today, but will need monitoring over the next 4-6 weeks and could become market events during that time period if more crop-friendly patters don't emerge in the meantime.
Soybean Summary-
While the beans and the meal closed lower on Tuesday, oil saw strength throughout the morning on yet another round of headlines regarding the proposed RVO mandate from the EPA, which is now expected to be released sometime either tomorrow or Thursday. We talk about this every time one of these rumor pops occurs, but would just continue reiterating that with as much premium as has been pumped into the market over the past several months, the environment is ripe for a sell the fact type reaction, which we would not be at all surprised to see occur. Then once the RVO is out, focus quickly shifts to planted acreage estimates next week, which will become talking point number one in the market outside of Iran once we get into April.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures traded in lock-step with the corn market on Tuesday, with neither able to muster much momentum in either direction throughout the day before closing marginally higher. With there being an ongoing lack of notable new fundamental news, the seasonals would suggest markets remain in a bit of a steady downtrend through the end of the month after peaking within a day of the interim seasonal high in early March, before then trading sideways for most of the next month. Markets typically then see a brief rally into May before a final turn lower as harvest then gets rolling in June.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $4.00/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Aside from light precip in the eastern Corn Belt later this week caused by a frontal boundary working south through the region, the rest of the Midwest looks to continue to stay on the dry side into the weekend and first part of next week, as high pressure continue to broadly limit precip and keeps temperatures well above seasonal averages.
Models still show a pattern shift then occurring though into the back half of next week, as the high pressure begins to work its way east, allowing better rainfall to fill back in behind it for the central part of the country and the Plains' wheat belt. Ridging doesn't exit the US though, which has kept temperature forecasts for the eastern US well warmer than normal through the first week of April, while the west sees some pockets of cool air but generally just goes back closer to average.
Meteorologists are beginning to hint at the slightest signs of concern regarding dryness in the forecast for the safrinha corn crop in northern and north-central Brazil. Concern levels are not high today due to abundant moisture over the last 8-10 weeks, but a premature end to the monsoon season in early/mid April could snip the top end off of yields for some of the country's later planted crops.
Argentina continues to see a drier forecast for the next several days in the short term, but there is also little concern here amid harvest beginning to get rolling and as most of the country's growing regions have been well-watered throughout the month of March.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
