Closing Markets: Corn: +1.25 old & new.
Beans: -4.75 old & -1 new. Wheat: +11.50 old & +13.25 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Choppy trade was the theme again on Thursday at the CBOT, as markets finished the day mixed/mostly on what continues to be a real lack of fresh fundamental news and with focus still largely centered on the Middle East. Topics of note throughout the day included fund liquidation in the bean oil market that gave way into the noon hour, and inter-market spread activity between the KC and Chicago wheat markets based on growing drought concern in western KS.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed quietly higher on Thursday for the third straight session, as prices continue to trade under the old uptrend line but probed the area once again today on what was another low volume, choppy day of trade. Traders are becoming disillusioned with the back-and-forth rhetoric regarding the situation in Iran, and this has led to a risk-off appetite over the last several sessions amid good early season planting progress and a lack of any sort of real weather threat today. In terms of what then is likely to move the market over the short term, we would again note crop discrepancies in Argentina and dryness concerns in parts of Brazil as being the biggest potential stories nearby, but would add that its far from a given that these scenarios will actually impact prices depending on how they play out.
Soybean Summary-
The bean market was the lone lower close of the bunch on Thursday, with the products unchanged to slightly higher on what was, similar to corn, another choppy, low volume trading day. We've discussed it in our technical commentary, but spot futures have been sideways for the better part of two months now, and we see this generally tied to the general pause in negotiations with the Chinese that aren't scheduled to resume, at best, for another few weeks. Traders understand the bean balance sheet, both for old crop and new crop, is heavily dependent on exports to the Chinese, and until the outlook is a little clearer, it is our assumption that this sideways trade is likely to continue. A planting issue would change this, but forecasts are non-threatening for the most part today.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures drew most of the attention in the ag space on Thursday, with higher closes and notable activity in the spreads one of the main topics of discussion throughout the morning. The drought situation in the west is interesting. On one hand, parts of western KS and NE are extremely dry, and there is almost certainly crop loss in these areas. But on the other hand, there's an argument to be made that dryness leads to higher protein levels, and that better moisture to the east could limit crop losses as a whole. And on top of that, should supply loss occur, we find it rather unlikely that such a development would be felt on the world market amid large supplies elsewhere and US FOB offers that are already non-competitive.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $3.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Forecasts on Thursday continued to fine-tune their area for severe weather risk over the next 24 hours or so, as a line of potentially strong storms is expected to work through the western/west-central Midwest this evening and through the night into Friday. Eastern KS sees the most risk of severe weather, with this afternoon's GFS model run calling for rainfall totals through the area to range anywhere from a trace tenth or two to upwards of an inch, though exact locations/amounts will be somewhat difficult to predict.
Temperature forecasts into the middle of next week have trended warmer for the central and eastern parts of the Midwest over the last 48 hours or so, as the pocket of cooler air from the north is now expected to stay a little further north than the models had originally predicted. There will still be some brief intrusion of cooler air through the week next week, but how far south the cold makes it is now a bigger question.
Aside from the 10-15 day temperature outlook also trending moderately warmer today, the extended forecast was little changed. Models still see a bulk of the country with average to above average rainfall chances through the first week of May, with the the only real agreement on dryness being in the northwest. The EU model has the northern Corn Belt drier on the margin with the southwest wetter, while the GFS has the southwest a touch drier but is wetter through the northern Corn Belt.
Dryness looks to continue to linger across much of Brazil through the coming weekend and into the first part of next week as models have brought little if any rainfall into the forecast for the eastern and central parts of the country. Argentina sees light rainfall through a narrow corridor across the central part of the country Saturday into Sunday, but otherwise most of the growing regions also see little in the way of rain potential into next week.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
