Closing Markets: Corn: +1.50 old & +0 new.
Beans: -1.50 old & -0.25 new. Wheat: +4.75.
PLEASE JOIN US NEXT WEEK FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Mixed trade was had in the ag space on Thursday, as markets saw another choppy day in which China and renewable fuel headlines once again dominated most all of the chatter. The headline-related trading has led to a bit of increased volatility this week, and we would expect this largely to continue in the weeks ahead as we approach both the quarterly stocks and seeding report and also the Trump-Xi summit in China that are both scheduled for the end of March.
Corn Summary-
May corn futures scored new highs for the move on Thursday, continuing what has been a slow but steady uptrend since the low made shortly following the January WASDE report. News has remained slow, but the market has been well-supported by basis throughout most of the country that has held steady amid what continues to be a strong export program and a farmer that is undersold. Otherwise, longer term price considerations remain a product of US planted acreage and crop sizes in Brazil and Argentina, and we don't see a lot aside from weather in the short term that's going to have much of a material impact on any of these fronts.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures, and the overall complex in general, had another bumpy ride on Thursday, with values quite a bit higher into the pause this morning, then quite a bit lower at mid-morning, then near unchanged by the time things were all said and done this afternoon. Like we mentioned at the top, the sheer number of headlines popping up on a near-daily basis has made trading somewhat difficult of late, but the market has still continued to trek higher nonetheless. Contracts from July on took out their fall highs from last year overnight last night, and this tells us that at least for now, the market sees at the very least a non-zero chance that China buys more than the 12 MMTs that would've been priced in last November. This, mixed with what most assume will be increasing demand from the biofuel sector, is at the heart of the rally in beans that has been going on since the beginning of the year. Should the market find out this isn't the case at some point, the 25+ cent plunge today over the span of an hour will likely seem like small potatoes compared to what would likely ensue following such a development.
Wheat Summary-
Chicago wheat futures ended their losing streak at three on Thursday, closing higher for the first day this week on profit taking and global cash tenders that offered support to futures. Given the current discount on Argy wheat compared to the US, weekly export sales data this morning could've been worse, which also likely lent some support to the space throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Otherwise, and like the corn market, it was another mostly slow news day here, with there little new in terms of developments on the fundamental front that would have a material impact on futures prices.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.05+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Today's southeast moisture looks to mark the start of a pattern shift over the next couple weeks that models see bringing better moisture and warmer temps back to the eastern US. Though we don't put a lot of credence in 10-day total moisture maps, runs this afternoon show precip totaling upwards of 4-7" through parts of OK/KS/MO, with a broader area covering generally the eastern 2/3s of the US looks to see a more general 0.5-1.5".
Temperatures look to see a brief intrusion of colder air from the north Saturday/Sunday/Monday but then look to continue in a generally warmer-than-normal pattern into next week, with 0-5 and 5-10 day outlooks still showing warmth throughout most all the US.
Week two precip maps are much like yesterday's runs and continue to show a significantly wetter outlook through much of the eastern and east-central US into the second week of March, especially along the lower Mississippi River. Inversely, the West Coast is really the only area in the US that sees a drier bias in the period.
On the temperature side, afternoon model runs today brought in some more variable temperatures to parts of the US west of the Rockies, but were little changed in the east in continuing to show average daytime highs that are well above normal.
Again nothing new for South America this afternoon, as models continue to be in good agreement on improving rains through southern and south-central Argentina over the weekend and into next week, while dryness holds through the far southern part of Brazil and into eastern Paraguay. Northern and north-central Brazil look to stay wet, which is beginning to raise quality concerns in some areas where harvest is a little further behind. Heat is still a non-factor in today's forecast, with temperatures through both countries expected to be near average into the middle of March.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
