Closing Markets: Corn: -1.
Beans: +2.50. Wheat: +0.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Happy Friday. Ag markets finished the week on a quiet note Friday, as a morning continuation of this week's sell off in the beans failed to gain much traction and fizzled out around mid-morning, while the grain markets saw quiet trade in generally light volume throughout the day. We mentioned it previously this week, but price action the past couple days is pointing to short term tops having been scored; we don't know that we're going to just go crashing back to the downside, but the open chart gap in the soybeans back down in the mid-10's seems like a logical target to start with. And on top of that, look for holiday trade to start emerging next week with the Thanksgiving Day holiday now just three sessions away.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed lower for a third straight session on Friday after making new lows for the week earlier in the day, with there continuing to be little if anything of note specific to the space. With the US supply situation known for the most part and weather in South America right now largely a non-factor, we see the cash market/basis as being the main driver of price over the next several weeks into 2026. The fact remains the US farmer has bushels to move when the price is right, it’s just a matter of getting this to happen amid plentiful supplies and a demand story that has mostly been priced in.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures traded lower on the morning session open this morning, but unlike previous days, were able to recover throughout the day and actually ended up closing mixed/mostly higher by the time the day was done to end the week though there wasn't really a lot of new news that would've inspired the turn around. Looking at the general picture, price action in the futures market combined with cash rumors would have us believe that some sort of short term top has likely been scored this week, with China having bought futures before/during the October run-up, then selling those futures over the last week-10 days as they made their cash purchases to appease President Trump. If he and Xi really agreed to 12 MMTs of US purchases before the end of the year though, we are somewhat curious as to why China would've successfully eliminated the price discrepancy between the US and Brazil via their futures play to only then buy a fraction of what was allegedly agreed to.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures finished the week quietly lower on Friday, with the spot Chicago market making new lows for the week before finishing unchanged on the day. It's not necessarily new news, but the production updates out of western Australia combined with the fact that Argentine wheat values are currently the cheapest in the world, just continues to illustrate why rally potential will likely be limited in the short term. Between wheat and corn, the world has an abundance of cheap feed grain, making the job of these markets to find a price level the spurs demand.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.95+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Weekend weather across the Midwest will be a mixed bag, with areas in the north seeing mostly warm/dry conditions into next week, while areas generally south of I-80 see rains continuing through the day today and tomorrow before drier conditions show back up on Sunday to end the weekend. This afternoon's GFS run is slightly drier than the model from the EU through the day tomorrow, but otherwise, the models continue to be in good agreement on conditions over the next 48-72 hours.
Precip anomaly maps for the first week of December are wetter again this afternoon throughout most all of the US besides the PNW, where the presence of high pressure ridging in the Pacific is keeping moisture from entering this area. The models are wettest in the period through the southern Midwest and through an area roughly around the lower Mississippi River, as flow will come across the Rockies and then get shunned back north due to high pressure in the Atlantic.
Temperature forecasts in the extended period have progressed rather routinely the last several days, with cooler air seen early in the week in the 10-15 day period now making its way into the 5-10 day period. The GFS has stayed cooler than the EU through the week, but otherwise, the two are in good agreement on just the southeastern US staying in a warmer bias, while cold arctic air pushes in from Canada to cool off the rest of the country. If high pressure stays anchored off the PNW, the central part of the US likely stays on the cooler side into the middle of December.
Following a scattered batch of storms through Argentina the last 24 hours or so, models see mostly drier conditions emerging here for several days before another light round of moisture is seen in the model a week from today at the end of next week. The pattern looks to stay on the drier side though overall through the first week of December, which will beneficial to many producers who have been experiencing flooding issues.
Meanwhile in Brazil, regular monsoonal rains look to continue impacting the northern part of the country through the weekend and the first part of next week, before expanding back south later in the week next week and through the following weekend. Totals and coverage will remain better in the north over the next two weeks, but there isn't anywhere in Brazil who doesn't look to receive some sort of rainfall in the period.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
