Friday, July 20, 2018
Closing Markets: Corn +4 old & new. Beans +4 old & +3 new. Wheat +12.
Corn futures ended the session slightly firmer, marking the 5th consecutive session higher. The recent move upwards has been attributed more to short covering than fresh buying interest. As of midday, funds had bought approximately 5,000 contracts of corn. The December contract was able to settle above $3.60 ¾ today, which was the 20 day moving average. This was a positive indicator and gives the short-term technical edge to the bulls. The next chart objective sits at $3.74. The current Midwest forecast shows rain will impact the eastern Midwest into the weekend while the west is expected to be mainly dry. The 6-10 day weather forecast looks cool and dry while the 8-14 day maps show the Corn Belt split, with drier conditions in the northern half and wetter conditions in the southern half. The yield debate continues with many analysts forecasting a record corn crop, some with estimates north of 180bpa. Others however, are questioning the impact of hot temperatures during pollination and are closer to the USDA's trend-line yield of 174bpa. The August 10th WASDE report will be the first to include a survey-based government yield estimate. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange updated Argentina's 17/18 corn crop estimate, lowering it to 31 MMT’s. That is a drop from their previous estimate of 32 MMT’s. Observers appear optimistic regarding the chances of a NAFTA deal being struck by the end of the year. Talks between the U.S. and Mexico are set to resume next week.
Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged today but were able to end the session firmer. However, buying interest will need to pick-up in order to generate stronger upside momentum. Sustained gains for the November contract above the 20-day moving average ($8.71 ½) would be a bullish short-term trend signal. On the upside, minor resistance lies at $8.81. Fresh comments from President Trump about his willingness to extend tariffs to cover $500 billion worth of Chinese goods hung over the market today, but somewhat surprisingly was not enough to ultimately move it lower. Tariffs are already in place against $34 billion and the President is moving forward with another $200 billion to be put in place by September. Trade relations with China remain rocky as White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow recently blamed China's President Xi for stalling negotiations and China responded by saying that troubles were a product of U.S. resistance. Meanwhile, Canada and the EU made it clear they would retaliate if the U.S. unveils auto tariffs.
C -119,000 (+8,000); B -79,000 (+2,000); W -24,000 (+10,000); M +51,000 (-2,000); BO -82,000 (+5,000)
Have a great evening!!!!
Emery Branch Manager/Originator || Topflight Grain Coop
593 Emery Rd.
Maroa, Il 61756
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