Friday, July 20, 2018       

Morning Markets: Corn +2 old & new. Soybeans +4 old & +2 new. Wheat +5.


The grain markets are higher despite overnight comments from Trump that he is ready to slap tariffs on all imports from China, roughly $505 billion annually in goods. The grain markets have rallied this week for the first time in nearly two months. For the week, corn futures are roughly 12 cents higher; soybeans are up 30 cents; soymeal is up $4.00, and; SRW wheat is 10 cents higher.  The dollar is mildly lower today after rallying to new highs on Thursday but giving up most of the gains by the close. The late sell-off on Thursday may have been attributed to comments from President Trump that he is “not thrilled” with the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates. The dollar is trading at 1-yr highs vs the yuan as the Chinese attempt to neutralize US tariffs with a cheaper currency.
Crude Oil is lower $67.98 off $0.26               
Gold is higher $1,224.10 up $0.10
The US Dollar is trading lower $94.925 off $0.17
World Stocks, Japan down 0.3%, China up 0.8%, Europe down 0.2%, Dow futures off 97 points.
Dalian Exchange: soybeans and meal higher, corn lower
Malaysian Palm Oil: down 0.1%
EU corn and wheat trading higher 

·         The weather outlook for the Midwest has rains impacting areas in the east this weekend with the west mainly dry; next week looks dry with rains in the southern Midwest the end of next week. Temperatures are seen running average to a bit below next week.
·         NOAA updated their 3-mo outlook for Aug – Oct. The models are showing a dry finish to the growing season which would likely be conducive for the upcoming harvest. There is talk that El Nino development late this year could adversely impact crops in eastern Australia, an area that is already dealing with dry conditions.

·         The average trade estimates for this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report pegs all cattle on feed as of July 1 at 104.0% of a year ago. Placements in June are estimated at 100.6% while June marketing’s are estimated at 101.1% of a year ago.
·         China’s pig herd in June fell 1.8% from a year ago while the sow herd dropped 2.9%, according to their Ag ministry.
·         Mexico’s Economy Minister states that NAFTA talks will resume on July 26th between the US and Mexico, with meetings including Canada to resume at a later date. The goal is to have a new NAFTA agreement signed by November.
·         South Africa’s 2018 corn output is seen at 13.3mmt vs 13.2 prior as a late harvest pushes crop size higher.
·         Low water on the Rhine and Danube Rivers has been hampering shipments as vessels cannot load to full capacity. The Rhine is an important shipping route for grains, minerals, coal and oil products, while the Danube is a major route for eastern European grain exports to Western Europe.
·         WEEKLY EXPORT SALES (New Crop): Corn sales at 775,000mt vs trade estimates of 200,000 – 500,000.  Soybean sales 613,000mt vs trade estimates of 100,000mt to 500,000 date sales equal

·         N/A
Have a great day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Branch Manager/Originator || Topflight Grain Coop
593 Emery Rd.
Maroa, Il 61756

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.





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