DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/30 12:23

   The Lean Hog Market Pulls Wednesday's Attention

   With corn prices jumping significantly higher, cattle contracts have 
regressed heading into Wednesday afternoon trade.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

   General Comments

   Cattle contracts were trading modestly higher Wednesday morning but as the 
noon hour approached both the live and feeder cattle contracts have taken a 
turn for lower prices and in an abrupt manner as the feeder cattle market sees 
as much as a $2.30 loss. With the announcement of Germany finding more wild 
boars carrying ASF and corn prices jumping as much as $0.16 to $0.17 per 
bushel, the attention has left the cattle complex and is focusing on lean hogs 
and corn. December corn is up 16 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is 
up $13.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 502.96 points and NASDAQ is 
up 176.29 points.

   LIVE CATTLE

   The market's attention for the cattle contracts has disappeared as there's 
more concern about the ASF cases in Germany and feeders want to get an 
understanding of the corn market's rally. Meanwhile live cattle contracts are 
trading lower but not as steeply as the feeder cattle complex. October live 
cattle are down $0.32 at $108.70, December live cattle are down $0.42 at 
$112.72 and February live cattle are down $0.35 at $115.87. Cash cattle trade 
remains at an utter standstill even after the day's online auction. Some early 
asking prices are noted in the South at $109, and bids of $167 are offered in 
Iowa but trade has yet to develop.

   The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 901 head, of which 358 
actually sold, but 543 head were listed as PO (Passed Offer). The state by 
state breakdown looks like this: Kansas 142 total head (1 lot), with 142 head 
listed as PO ($104.00); Nebraska 214 total head (1 lot), with 214 head sold at 
$106.00; Texas 545 total head (3 lots), with 144 head sold at $106.00, and 401 
head listed as PO ($104.00). The delivery date/weighted averages breakdown is 
as listed: 1-9-day delivery: 543 head total, all passed, and 1-17-day delivery 
358 head total all sold at $106.00.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.48 ($218.64) and select up $0.94 
($207.93) with a movement of 97 loads (59.57 loads of choice, 15.60 loads of 
select, 6.88 loads of trim and 15.12 loads of ground beef).

   FEEDER CATTLE

   Feeder cattle contracts are taking the brunt of Wednesday's blow, seeing as 
much as $2.22 losses as the complex barley broke above the $144 resistance 
plane before shooting lower. October feeder cattle are down $1.50 at $141.37, 
November feeder cattle are down $2.10 at $141.67 and January feeders are down 
$1.95 at $139. Pressuring the feeder cattle complex tremendously is the corn 
market's rally as corn prices are jumping up as much as $0.15 to $0.16 per 
bushel.

   LEAN HOGS

   Just when the market wondered if the hype surrounding the ASF cases in 
Germany was dying down, news broke Wednesday morning that two additional wild 
boars were found positive with the disease. Upon hearing the news, the hope of 
export opportunity is helping boost the lean hog market. October lean hogs are 
up $0.12 at $72.50, December lean hogs are up $1.37 at $63.35 and February lean 
hogs are up $1.32 at $68.32.

   The projected lean hog index for 9/29/2020 is up $0.63 at $76.54 and the 
actual index for 9/28/2020 is up $0.49 at $75.91. Hog prices are lower on the 
National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.02 with a weighted average of 
$63.90, ranging from $60.00 to $66.00 on 5,815 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $64.31. Pork cutouts total 190.09 loads with 167.25 loads of pork 
cuts and 22.84 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.55, $91.20.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    




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