Closing Markets: Corn -2 old & -0.75 new.
Beans -2.25 old & -1.75 new. Wheat +1.
All Topflight locations will be closed Friday, April 18th in observance of Good Friday
Market Recap:
CK closed Thursday at 4.82 and 1/4, down 2 cents. CN was down a penny and a half at 4.90 and 1/4. SK finished at 10.36 and 1/2, down 2 and 1/4. SN closed at 10.47 and 3/4, down 2 and 1/2. Inside days for all four. WK closed at 5.48 and 3/4, up a penny. Products were mixed, May soybean meal closed at 295.60, down $1.10/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 47.87, up 39 points. Livestock markets again extended their winning streak; June live cattle closed at 204.07, up $2.00, May feeders closed at 286.85, up $2.45, and June hogs closed at 98.02, up 7 cents. This the fifth consecutive higher close for both cattle markets, and the seventh consecutive higher close for the hogs. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up $1.80-1.90/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 450 points, and the US$ index is mixed/unchanged; the S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is near unchanged. Gold futures are $15-20/oz lower, but made new contract highs again overnight.
For the week: May corn was down 8 cents; July corn was down 6 and 3/4 cents; May soybeans were down 6 and 1/4 cents; July soybeans were down 5 and 1/4 cents; May Chicago wheat was down 7 cents; May soybean meal was down $4.0/ton; and May soybean oil was down 0.52 cents/lb.
Spreads ended the week mixed/lower, corn spreads closed a penny and 3/4 higher to a penny and a half lower, and soybean spreads closed a quarter cent higher to down a penny and a half. CK/CN closed the week at -8, down a half cent, and SK/SN closed the week at -11 and 1/4, up 1/4 of a cent.
The USDA also released updated monthly cattle on feed data after the close today; the report was mostly as the trade had expected, and showed the US feedlot herd as of April 1 at 11.638 million head, which is 98% of a year ago. Placements during March totaled 1.841 mil head, or 105% of last year, while marketings in the month totaled 1.725 mil head, or 101% of last year; pre-report expectations were for 98%, 103% and 101% respectively.
Export sales in this morning's weekly report were one of the few data points on Thursday and were largely as expected, falling within trade expectations for all three main crops, as well as the soy products. Corn sales in the week ending April 10th were seen at 1.562 mmt's, with featured buyers being Mexico (401,500 mt's), Japan (263,300 mt's), and Spain (240,000 mt's). Soybean sales for the week totaled 555k mt's, with featured buyers being Mexico (156,800 mt's) and the Netherlands (127,100 mt's); unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 170k mt's in the week. Lastly for wheat, sales in the week totaled 76.5k mt's, with the Dominican Republic taking 30,700 mt's; unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 44,200 mt's. Product sales totaled 146k tons for meal, and 10.3k tons for oil; the oil figure was notably the highest for this particular week since 2011.
There was again little of note in the forecasts for South America ahead of the weekend, with Brazil expected to see improved moisture through almost of its growing areas, while Argentina sees limited precip that allows for improved harvest pace. The threat now for Brazil becomes the later planted 15-20% of the crop, which remains at risk of a possible shut-off in moisture beyond the first of May. These rains are otherwise nearly ideal for the rest of the safrinha corn crop, and will likely get some fields through to the end if on the upper end of expected totals.
Weather focus for the Midwest going into the weekend continues to be on the coming storm system(s) expected to bring rains and potentially severe weather to the central and southern Cron Belt over the next few days. The GFS again trended more like the EU model regarding precip locations in the northern and western parts of the Midwest, but it will still be a bit of a toss up on whether the drier areas of the south western wheat belt are able to pick up meaningful precip between now and Monday. As we then go through next week, additional rains are seen for the eastern half of the country from another low pressure system that is expected to work through generally the same areas as this weekend's, with an additional 2-3" of rainfall expected for the Midwest into next weekend. Soil moisture boosts in April are usually never a bad thing ahead of a long growing season, but should this forecast verify over the next 2 weeks, we would expect the chatter surrounding a late planting year to increase. Temperatures beyond the weekend look to warm up beyond this weekend, with models in good agreement on above average highs for most of the country the next 5-10 days.
Otherwise, as has been the case all week, other news was largely limited to comments from President Trump to reporters at the White House, where he answered questions from reporters while hosting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Obviously trade deals with Europe were one of the main topics of discussion, to which both leaders said they expected some sort of agreement would be reached. The two also mentioned Trump had agreed to an invitation to visit Italy to continue talks on the matter. Other comments from the US President not related to Italy or Europe included remarks that he was not happy with Fed Chair Powell, and that interest rates should be coming down rather than potentially going back up. Trump also said that a minerals deal had been reached with Ukraine and was expected to be signed next week, and added that he expected to hear from Russia "very shortly".
Have a great Easter weekend!
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
