Friday, June 14, 2024
Closing Markets: Corn: -9 old & -6 new. Beans: -10 old & -11 new. Wheat: -7.
Market Recap:
Markets drifted lower to wrap up the week in Chicago on a rather uneventful Friday. Corn and soybean futures made new lows for the day through the noon hour, as buying dried up and traders started to prepare for a 48-hour weather forecast hiatus. Heat picks up in the East next week, which looks like added stress to areas that have been shortchanged by rain.
Products were mixed, July bean meal closed at 368.40, up 10 cents/ton, and July bean oil closed at 43.68, down 18 points. Livestock markets ended the week higher, August live cattle closed at 183.17, up $3.67, August feeders closed at 261.97, up $4.50, and July hogs closed at 93.65, up 87 cents. Both fats and feeders gaped higher on this morning's open, while hogs made new six-month lows before closing higher. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 100 points, and the US$ index is up 35 points. Neither NASDAQ nor S&P have made new highs today as of this writing.
Spreads were mixed to end the week, corn spreads were down a half cent to down 2 cents, and soybean spreads were down 4 cents to up a penny and a quarter. The CN/CU closed at -7, down 2 cents, and the SN/SU closed at 33 1/4, up a penny and a quarter. The WN/WU had a strong week; it closed 2 cents higher Friday at -15 3/4 and was up 6 cents for the week.
For the week: July corn was up a penny and a quarter; Dec corn was up 3; July beans were up 1/2 of a cent; Nov beans were down 8 cents; and July Chicago wheat was down 14 3/4.
No USDA flash sales this morning for the first day since Monday. Soybean flash sales for the week totaled 330,000 mt's.
Newswires were quiet to end the week, as general themes prevail going into the weekend. Markets are on the cusp of summer weather season, where day-to-day forecasts can cause sizeable shifts in futures prices. Farmers currently report a bit of a mixed bag in terms of conditions, contrary to the lofty government numbers. The early planted corn seems to be in the best shape, while there are questions about stand quality on crops that were planted in wetter than desired conditions. This moisture surplus will benefit crops during the coming heat but has likely caused poor root development up to this point.
Cash bids have picked up in recent weeks, especially in areas West of the Mississippi River. Sources report moderate farmer selling in the last few days, but this hasn't caused any back-off in bids. Eastern bids are also firm, though not as good as those in the West. End user margins are profitable across the Midwest, and this too has helped to keep bids strong. The other notable market feature at the week’s end was bear spreading in corn futures, as fund traders either roll or exit their July positions. The CN/CU corn spread was nearly 6 cents off Wednesday's highs by the end of the day today.
This afternoon's CFTC commitment of trader’s report showed that for the week ending June 11th, managed money traders were buyers of 426 combined contracts of corn futures/options, sellers of a combined 16,139 contracts of soybean futures/options, and sellers of 13,432 combined contracts of Chicago wheat futures/options. Funds are now seen net-short 212,279 contracts of corn, net-short 75,880 contracts of soybeans, and net-short 45,116 contracts of Chicago wheat. In soy products, funds were sellers of 18,155 contracts in soybean oil and were sellers of 7,791 contracts in soybean meal; this makes them net-short 75,844 contracts in soybean oil, and net-long 92,907 contracts in soybean meal.
US import data out this morning showed import prices in May fell for the first time in five months amid lower prices for energy products. Data showed a 0.4% decrease, vs expectations for a 0.1% increase. Prices were up 0.9% in April. Combined with decent inflation readings earlier in the week, Friday's data helps to keep a September rate cut on the table from the Fed. Also, on Friday was a consumer sentiment reading that came in at a seven-month low of 65.6, which was down 5.1%.
Weather forecasts continue to fluctuate, with today's midday runs offering a slightly dryer and warmer bias than was offered overnight. The GFS is now more like the EU model for next week, with both models offering thunderstorm activity for the Northwest edge of the high-pressure ridge that looks to settle in over the Southeast. Temps crank up starting Sunday in the East and look to stay there for most of next week. Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid 70's across much of the Corn Belt.
Traders will also be keeping an eye on the international forecast over the weekend, with concern remaining in the Black Sea region, China, and South America. Better moisture continues to be needed for Russian wheat areas, while China experiences record or near-record setting heat in the Northern growing regions. Argentina's forecast is mostly favorable with warm temps and scattered showers, while Southern Brazil again sees unwanted rainfall. The rest of Brazil sees mostly above average temps, and little to no precipitation.
Have a great evening!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.

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