Closing Markets: Corn +5. Beans +0. Wheat -1.
Kruger will host a Food Drive for Holy Family Pantry Tuesday, December 10th from 8am-12pm
Market Recap:
Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Corn and bean oil futures put in relatively strong days to the upside to end the week on Friday, while soybeans and wheat spent most of the session trading within a few cents of unchanged before also closing this way. Higher trade in the $ index caused by a stronger than expected jobs report this morning helped to keep the upside somewhat limited, while otherwise fresh news was again mostly lacking.
CH ended the week at 4.40, up 5 cents. CK was up 4 3/4 at 4.45 1/4. SF closed at 9.93 3/4, unchanged for the day. SH was up 1/4 of a cent at 9.99 1/4. WH closed a penny lower at 5.57 1/4. Products were mixed, January soybean meal closed at 287.40, down $3.70/ton, and January soybean oil closed at 42.97, up 66 points. New contract lows for meal. Livestock markets were mixed to end the week; February live cattle closed at 186.17, down 15 cents, January feeders closed at 255.82, up 90 cents, and February hogs closed at 87.32, up 97 cents. Inside day for feeders and an outside day for hogs. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 180 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points. The S&P500 is up 5 points and the NASDAQ is up 170 points. New contract highs again for the S&P and the NASDAQ to end the week.
Spreads were mixed to end the week, corn spreads were down 3/4 of a cent to up a penny and 3/4, and soybean spreads were down a quarter of a cent to up 3 cents. CZ/CH closed at -9 1/4, down 3/4 of a cent, and SF/SH closed at -5 1/2, down 1/4 of a cent. No new high on Friday for CH/CK, which closed at -5 1/4. ZW/ZH finished the week at -14 3/4, down 3 and 1/4.
For the week: March corn was up 7 cents; May corn was up 5 and 1/2 cents; January soybeans were up 4 and 1/4 cents; March soybeans were up 3 and 1/4 cents; March Chicago wheat was up 9 and 1/4 cents.
Looking ahead to next week, ag traders will have their attention turned to the December WASDE report, which is due out on Tuesday. The numbers don't look to be anything overly exciting, as any changes that occur will be demand related due to a lack of supply side updates. Notable points to watch for include ethanol use on the corn side, as well as whether any updates occur to soybean oil exports. To the latter, data would suggest the answer to this question is a no-brainer as current commitments well exceed current forecasts, but we would warn due to existing political uncertainty and the USDA's propensity to feet-drag that it is possible they will wait to see actual evidence of these shipments being received before adjusting monthly balance sheet figures. And to ethanol, corn use through the first part of the marketing year has been good and above pace needed to reach the USDA's current target at 5.450 bil bu's.
Though there are no production estimates for the US, other points of interest in this report include production estimates out of South America. We find it interesting that the average trade guesses would have Argentine corn production down 500k mt's from last month, as the most recent crop ratings currently show 99% of the crop in either good/excellent or normal condition, while soil moisture condition stands at 96% adequate. Planting progress is also ahead of both last year and the year prior, while nearly being further along than any year out of the past 10; if anything, we would think this might lead to slight increases in production, not decreases. The trade sees production estimates for Argentine soybeans coming in slightly higher from last month, while the same thing is forecast for both corn and soybean production estimates in Brazil.
Only real news of note specific to Friday was the CFTC commitment of traders report for the week ending December 3rd, which didn't offer a lot of note. Managed money traders in the week were sellers of a combined 9,221 contracts of corn futures/options (now net-long 88,220 contracts), buyers of a combined 9,254 combined contracts of soybean futures/options (net-short 72,217), and were sellers of a combined 10,267 contracts of Chicago wheat futures/options (net-short 69,386). In soy products, funds were sellers of 13,766 contracts of soybean oil (net-long 9,427), and were buyers of 2,118 contracts of soybean meal (net-short 73,299).
Weekend weather sees continued lake-effect snowfall chances for the northeast through the evening tonight and into tomorrow, while snow chances are then seen for the northwest and the northern Plains starting Sunday and stretching into the first part of next week. Mid-week next week the EU model sees snowfall chances stretching well south into the eastern Midwest, but the GFS has kept snowfall more to the north; this will be watched through the weekend, and along with the low pressure system moving through the south and southeast, looks to be the main forecast feature for the week. High temps on Saturday reach into the 60's in parts of KS/NE/SD, while this heat is seen expanding to the east Sunday and through the first part of next week. Cool air then returns mid-week, as the progressive ridge/trough pattern remains in place. 10-15 day forecasts are in better agreement today on a corridor of wetter weather from Texas up through MN/WI December 14-20, while also seeing moisture in the PNW. The East Coast looks to see a drier bias, while the west and southwest see average to slightly below average precip chances.
Forecast for South America is wetter yet in southern Brazil in the mid-day runs, as now a wide majority of RGDS, Santa Catarina, and Parana are expected to see rains of 6-8" through Monday. Rains look to continue to into mid-week next week, while areas in the central part of the country look to see several days of drier weather, which will be welcome. Argentina is expected to stay dry, but unexpected rainfall has been present the last 24 hours, which means there could be additional shower chances through the weekend. 10-15 day guidance trended back drier through mid-day in eastern Argentina, but is still wet in the north and northwest and also through most all of Brazil. We won't go into a ton of detail here about the MJO, but the MJO, which is currently in phase 4/5, was expected earlier in the week to shift back to phase 7/8, which would've returned rainfall to Argentina; this shift is now no longer expected, which is the reason for the change in the 10-15 day outlook. Regardless, better than expected short-term rains will continue to keep concern levels minimal.
Enjoy the weekend!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
