|Wednesday, August 04, 2021 |
Morning Markets: Corn Even Old & New. Beans +2 Old & New. Wheat +6.
Grain futures were mixed overnight as buying interest perked following yesterday’s break. The US dollar was steady, energy values were weak, and the equities were mixed. We are now just a week away from the August WASDE report and that is quickly becoming to focal point of the market. There are several analysts who believe the US corn yield will be lowered in this release given the adverse weather the crop has been subjected to. This cannot be ruled out as nearly one-third of the United States is experiencing unfavorable growing conditions. That said, two-thirds of the United States are reporting very good growing conditions and high yield potential. As always, the question now becomes if the good regions are going to be enough to make up for losses in other regions. We are also hearing reports that even in poor areas the crop is not as bad as earlier thought which is only adding to market uncertainty and trade volatility. The same reports are coming out on soybeans, but the USDA may be less willing to alter its yield estimate at this time. The most uncertainty in production may come from the global side of the WASDE data. We continue to hear of stress applied to the Brazil corn crop and analyst have lowered their production from what the USDA released last month. At the same time other regions of the world have seen their yields increase, which may keep global production nearly unchanged.
Crude Oil is down $0.35 at $70.21.
US Dollar is up $0.008 at $92.089.
Global Equities: Japan +0.9%, China +0.7%, and Europe +0.7%.
Dow futures is down 25 points at 34,973.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.2%, and Wheat +0.1%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: +3.0%.
Dalian: Corn +0.4%, Soybeans +1.7%, Meal -0.9%.
- NOAA’s 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day maps are showing above normal precipitation for both the Great Lakes region and the eastern belt. Temperatures will be above normal for the entire corn belt while below normal precipitation persists across the central and northern plains.
- The weather maps are showing warm to hot temps return over the next several days and continues through at least the first half of next week. A cool front will move across the Midwest later next week, but the maps remain mixed as to whether the change will be brief or an overall pattern change
- StoneX is estimating 2021/22 corn yield at 176.9 bpa versus USDA at 179.5 bpa. Corn production is seen at 14.945 billion bushels versus USDA at 15.165 billion. Soybean yield was seen at 50.0 bpa versus USDA at 50.8 bpa. Soybean production is estimated at 4.332 billion bushels versus USDA at 4.405 billion.
- Barchart estimating 2021/22 corn production at 15.08 billion bushels, yield is seen at 180.3 bpa. Soybean production is pegged at 4.4 billion bushels, yield is estimated at 50.8 bpa.
- There are some analysts who believe the USDA could reduce harvested corn acres 500,000 to 1.0 million to account for increased corn chopping in areas suffering from drought.
- High transoceanic freight prices caused sugar consumers around the world to pause their buying and use stocks, leading to a temporary glut of the sweetener in the main export port of Santos, Brazil, that drove down price differentials. According to BP Bunge Bioenergia, the sugar and ethanol venture owned by BP Plc and Bunge Ltd, Brazilian sugar was sold at times at a discount to New York raw sugar futures in July, instead of the conventional premium over futures, as many sugar importers left the market. High transoceanic transport rates, both for bulk carriers that transport sugar and grains and for containers used for products such as coffee and cotton have increased costs for companies and hurt trade.
- Brazilian corn exports are expected to plunge in August to around 3 million tonnes, according to ship line-up data from maritime agency Cargonave and projections by grain exporters association Anec on Tuesday. Shipping schedules showed corn exports at 6.7 million tonnes in August of 2020, data from Cargonave showed. Anec said corn shipments this August would be at best only as high as 4 million tonnes amid severe crop failure.
- China has banned meat imports from food processor BRF SA's Lucas do Rio Verde plant in central Brazil, according to a company statement on Tuesday. The company processes pork and chicken in the town of Lucas do Rio Verde, in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest farm state. It was not immediately clear if the ban affected both types of meat. BRF said it has not been officially notified of the measure, having only learned about the suspension on China's General Administration of Customs website, the statement said.
- China's market regulator on Wednesday said it had launched an investigation into fertilizer producers and distributors that are suspected of driving up prices. The State Administration for Market Regulation also said it would continue to pay close attention to fertilizer prices, increase supervision and punish illegal acts, such as hoarding, hiking prices and price collusion.
Have a great day!!!!
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
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