Thursday, August 22, 2019
Morning Markets: Corn +2 old & new. Beans +3 old & new. Wheat +1. MARKET SUMMARY:
Trade was mostly steady overnight as neither buyers nor sellers showed up in force. This is a common action in a market that is attempting to consolidate after recent volatility. Mixed fundamental data is keeping trade interest to a minimum this morning as well. We continue to receive field reports that are showing crops are between 2 and 3 weeks behind normal in maturity, but this does not necessarily mean a yield reduction. We are also seeing bigger yield estimates as tours move into the heart of the Corn Belt which is not surprising. The question now is if these areas are good enough to compensate for the losses in others to give us the crop size currently being predicted. Technicals are currently oversold, but we are not seeing much interest in correcting this, which is also keeping the market stable this morning. Trade will be looking to the weekly export data for direction today, mainly to see if China was listed as a buyer of any commodity. The two main ones will be pork and soybeans. We will also see interest in weather to see if additional rains fall in the driest regions of the Midwest.
Crude Oil is up $0.35 at $56.03.
US Dollar is up $0.049 at $98.344.
Global Equities: Japan no change, China -0.8%, and Europe -0.4%.
Dow futures up 240 points at 26,203.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn no change and Wheat +0.2%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: +1.7%.
China’s Dalian Exchange: Corn +0.8%, Soybeans +0.2%, and Meal +1.5%.
· The weather models are in good agreement as cooler weather and soaking rains are expected to move across the Midwest over the next 7 days. Rainfall totals of 2-4” are expected across eastern sections of KS and NE, into MO, IA and MN. Rains will then push into the ECB but turn scattered, favoring W IL and WI.
· Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimating Illinois corn yield at 171.17bpa versus 192.63 last year the three-year average of 188.95. The average soybean pod count in a 3 by 3-foot area is 997.68 versus 1,328.91 last year and the three-year average of 1,292.59.
· Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimating Iowa District 1 corn yield at 184.88bpa versus 186.87 last year and the three-year average of 184.12. The average soybean pod count is 1,1095.93 vs 1,081.82 LY and the 3-year average of 1,098.17. Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimating Iowa District 4 corn yield at 192.71bpa versus 186.77 last year and the three-year average of 182.93. The average soybean pod count is 1,196.06 vs 1,260.09 LY and the 3-year average of 1,227.85. Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimating Iowa District 7 corn yield at 186.28bpa versus 179.82 last year and the three-year average of 185.78. The average soybean pod count is 1,221.13 vs 1,445.07 LY and the 3-year average of 1,319.93.
· Weekly EIA Ethanol Report: Production: -22,000 at 1,023,000 BPD (-2.1%); trade expected unchanged. Stocks: -516,000 to 23.367 million barrels (-2.2); trade expected -1.5%
ProFarmer Crop Tour:
· OH Corn: 154.4 vs USDA at 160.0 and 187.0 LY
· OH Soybeans: 764 vs 1,248 LY
· SD Corn: 154.1 vs USDA at 157 and 160 LY
· SD Soybeans: 833 vs 1,025 LY
· NE Corn: 172.6 vs USDA at 186.0 and 192.0 LY
· NE Soybeans: 1,211 vs 1,299 LY
· IN Corn: 161.5 vs USDA at 166 and 189 LY
· IN Soybeans: 924 vs 1,312 LY
· IL Corn: 171.2 vs USDA at 181 and 210 LY
· IL Soybeans: 998 vs. 1,329 LY.
EXPORT NEWS: · N/A Have a great day!!!! Chelsey WhiteEmery Branch Manager/Originator || Topflight Grain Coop593 Emery Rd. Maroa, Il 61756217-794-2240E-Mail: firstname.lastname@example.orgWeb: www.topflightgrain.comThis material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
- Corn: 119,300mt 18/19 crop, 301,600mt 19/20 crop. (Estimates: 50,000-400,000/ 200,000-600,000).
- Soybeans: 25,900mt 18/19 crop, 792,600mt 19/20 crop (Estimates: -(200)-1000,000/ 350,000-700,000).
- Wheat: 594,600 19/20 crop (Estimates: 300,000-500,000).
- Meal: 118,600mt 18/19 crop, 13,400mt 19/20 crop (Estimates: 50,000-150,000/ 50,000-200,000).
- Oil: 2,200mt 18/19 crop. 0mt 19/20 crop (Estimates: 5,000-10,000/ 0-15,000).