Friday, February 14, 2020      
 
Morning Markets: Corn +1Beans -1.  Wheat +4.
Topflight Grain will be closed on Monday, February 17th for Presidents Day.
 
Settlement information is now available on the Topflight App.  Call your local TFG originator to learn more about all the App features and how you can download the app to your smartphone!
 
Topflight Grain will be hosting three focus meetings to discuss crop insurance updates, TFG company updates, and a marketing outlook presented by MID-CO Commodities!  There will also be a Topflight App Demo by Bushel.  The first meeting will be Thursday, February 27th at the Maroa Firehouse at 8am with breakfast and meeting to follow.  The second meeting will be the same day at 12pm at the Bement Lions Club with lunch and meeting to follow.  The third and final meeting will be Friday, February 28th at the Oasis Senior Center in Lincoln at 8am with breakfast and meeting to follow.  Each meeting will cover the same material.
 
 
 
MARKET SUMMARY:

Futures have tried to carve out a bottom this week but have failed to generate much in the way of buying interest. At the same time, we have not seen heavy selling pressure which has been beneficial. The most interest for the week was the WASDE report but this is now behind us and trade is focusing on next week's Ag Outlook Forum data that will be released on Thursday and Friday. While we have seen several private analysts release estimates on this coming year's acres this will be the initial look at what the USDA is thinking for this year and well beyond. This will also give us a clearer idea of projected demand which is just as important to balance sheets. Trade will also continue to monitor the spread of the Coronavirus and its potential impact on commodity demand. China claims they will adhere to the Phase 1 agreement, but this seems somewhat doubtful. China will need commodity imports but when and what type remain questionable. We are hoping we may get the answers to these questions sooner than later as the Phase 1 agreement goes into full effect this weekend. To see China in and buy a huge volume of commodities right away is highly unlikely though. This is especially the case on soybeans where Brazil is offering product at a sizable discount to the US. This shift in demand was verified by last week's export sales where China was only listed as the destination for one cargo. China can easily show up later in the year and still satisfy the terms of the Phase 1 agreement. We may see elevated trader positioning in today's session as the markets will be closed Monday for the President's Day Holiday. Trade will resume on Monday night for the grains and soybeans and Tuesday morning for the livestock.
 
Crude Oil is up $0.70 at $52.12.                           
US Dollar is up $0.069 at $99.136.
Global Equities: Japan -0.6%, China +0.3%, and Europe +0.1%.
Dow futures is down 128 points at 29,423.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.3% and Wheat +0.5%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: +1.6%.
 
 
 
 WEATHER:  
  • Widespread precipitation will pick back up Monday/Tuesday in the Midwest, with a dry 6-10 day forecast today but action resuming in the 11-15 day; temps bottom out in the southern Plains in the 6-10 but extremes are still absent overall.
 
 
OTHER HEADLINES:
  • WEEKLY EXPORT SALES: Corn: 969,000 mt vs trade estimates of 700 – 1,200; sold 54% of USDA forecast vs 63% average. Soybeans: 645,000 mt vs trade estimates of 600 – 1,000; sold 66% of USDA forecast vs 80% average.
  • Now that the monthly S&D report is behind us, traders will begin focusing on next week’s Ag Outlook Forum, scheduled for Feb 20 and 21. The outlook will give us an idea of next crop year’s demand base, with traders paying close attention to export demand.
  • The average trade estimate for Tuesday’s NOPA crush report has NOPA members crushing 173.748 million bushels of soybeans in January. If realized, it would be down from the 174.812 million bushels crushed in December but above the January 2019 crush of 171.630 million bushels.
  • Soy oil supplies among NOPA members at the end of January are estimated at 1.782 billion pounds, up from 1.757 billion at the end of December and 1.549 billion at the end of January 2019.
  • In its first corn crop estimate of the season, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange pegged Argentina’s corn crop at 49.0 MMTs versus 50.6 MMTs a year ago. Meanwhile, the Rosario Grains Exchange increased its soy and corn production forecast 1.0 MMTs, to 55.0 MMTs for soybeans and 50.0 MMTs for corn.
  • Mexico’s Central Bank reported migrants working overseas sent home a record $36 billion in remittances in 2019.
  • The Argentine crop is rated as 98% fair to excellent versus 93% for the same time period a year ago.
  • China reports 5,090 new coronavirus cases and 121 new deaths in the past 24 hours. The head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the new coronavirus could be around for at least another year.
  • Ships carrying refrigerated cargo containers of chicken from the United States to China are being diverted to ports in Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to a U.S. poultry export trade group.
  • India's halt on Malaysian palm oil imports has disrupted global edible oil trade flows, with Indonesia diverting supplies to feed India, Malaysia rushing to tap markets left behind by Jakarta, and India substituting palm with other oils.
  • Europe is facing a smaller wheat crop after heavy autumn rain hindered sowings, but a remarkably warm winter has boosted crops in some regions. Germany's winter wheat area has been reduced by 7.1% from the 2019 harvest to about 2.83 million hectares. Poland's wheat sowings are up 2-3% from about 2 million hectares harvested in 2019. Britain’s wheat area is expected to be sharply down with rains forcing many farmers to switch to spring crops. France's farm ministry estimates the winter soft wheat area for this year's harvest at 4.70 million hectares, down 5.6% from last year.
 
 
EXPORT NEWS:
 
  • N/A
 
 
 
Have a great day!!!!
 
Chelsey White
Emery Branch Manager/Originator || Topflight Grain Coop
593 Emery Rd.
Maroa, Il 61756
217-794-2240
E-Mail: cwhite@topflightgrain.com
Web: www.topflightgrain.com

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
 


 
 
 
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