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Friday, July 26, 2024
MARKET SUMMARY:
Ag markets are mostly lower to start the last day of the week. Open interest data this week has shown the spec community doing most of the buying as opposed to funds covering shorts, which means there's a chance these traders sell these positions back and bank profits going into the weekend. Forty-eight hours can produce significant changes in the forecast, and this is what traders will be watching for to start next week. Mother Nature continues to have the most outsized impact on price discovery. Products are lower, soybean meal is $1-3/ton lower, and soybean oil is down 20-30 points.
Crude Oil is down $0.25 at $78.03.
U.S. Dollar is -0.1% at $104.356.
Global Equities: Japan -0.4%, China +0.1%, and Europe +0.9%.
Dow futures is up 268 points at 40,460.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.1%, and Wheat +1.0%.
WEATHER:
- Not a lot of updates going into the weekend otherwise; week-two guidance was mostly unchanged from yesterday on both moisture as well as the location of the high-pressure ridge. Whether the models see the ridge further south/west by next week will be the main feature traders will have their eyes on over the weekend.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Scouts on an annual North Dakota crop tour on Thursday projected that hard red spring wheat yields in the top-producing state will average 54.5 bushels per acre, the highest ever according to records going back to 1992. The figure was well above the Wheat Quality Council tour's 2023 estimate of 47.4 bushels per acre and the five-year average of 42 bushels per acre, excluding 2020. The lofty forecast concerned some farmers on the tour, however, as they worry a strong spring wheat crop will only further drive down U.S. wheat future prices that are already near four-year lows. Cool, rainy conditions propelled yield predictions to record levels, but the same weather has also helped spread fusarium head blight, also known as scab, which can result in grain being sold at hefty discounts.
- Ukraine had harvested around 20 million metric tons of grains as of July 25, the farm ministry said on Friday. the ministry had threshed 14.7 million tons of wheat from 3.5 million hectares and with an average yield of 4.2 tons per hectare, the ministry said. They also harvested 3.87 million tons of barley with a yield of 3.79 tons per hectare and 416,300 tons of peas with a yield of 2.19 tons per hectare. The ministry said 3.08 million tons of rapeseed had also been threshed. Last month the ministry raised its forecast for the 2024 grain harvest to 56 million tons from 52.4 million. Together with oilseeds, the crop could total 77 million tons, it said.
- Recent rains have allowed Argentine farmers to finish wheat planting for the current harvesting season in the country's agricultural heartland, according to a report from the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) released on Thursday. While wheat planting is complete in all major farmland for the 2024/25 cycle, planting over 6.3 million hectares dedicated to the key grains crop nationwide is 98.5% complete, the weekly report from the BdeC showed. Agricultural powerhouse Argentina is a major global grains supplier, with sales of cash crops including wheat, corn and soybeans all providing crucial income as well as contributing foreign currency reserves to central bank coffers needed to pay down debts and finance imports. The latest BdeC report noted that rainfall focused mainly on the center and east of the major agricultural area allowed planting to be completed in both the northern and southern centers.
- The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment on Thursday announced three additional human cases of bird flu among poultry farm workers, bringing the total number of confirmed human cases in the U.S. this year to 13. The three new cases involved poultry farm workers who were killing infected chickens at a Weld County egg farm, the health department said. The workers are experiencing mild illness and have been offered antiviral drugs, said the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in a statement.
EXPORT NEWS:
Have a wonderful day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be dependable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
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