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Friday, December 6, 2024
Morning Markets: Corn +1.25. Beans +2.50. Wheat +1.25.
Kruger will host a Food Drive for Holy Family Pantry Tuesday, December 10th from 8am-12pm
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning! Happy Friday. Uneventful has been the overnight trading session to start the last day of the week, as none of the three major ag commodities have been able to muster more than a 5 or 6 cent trading range. As we've mentioned previously through Fall and the first part of Winter, Fridays at the CBOT are trend days, and this is the most plausible reason for the overnight pop in soybean oil, as palm oil futures ended the week lower. Looking to next week, markets will see a fresh monthly supply and demand update from WASDE, but the numbers don't look to be overly market-altering. Broad market themes of potentially record-breaking South American production, as well as political uncertainty both domestically and abroad, will continue to key price direction into the end of the year. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading unchanged to two pennies higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 70 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.
Crude Oil is up $0.28 at $68.82
US Dollar is down at $106.17
Global Equities: Japan +0.1%, China -0.9%, and Europe +0.3%
Dow futures is down 11 points at 45,095
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.4% and Wheat +0.2%
WEATHER:
- Though not particularly important to the Midwest or the Corn Belt, big weather story from Thursday was a 7.0 magnitude earthquake off the coast of northern CA, which also briefly prompted tsunami warnings. There were o immediate reports of serious damage or injuries.
- Elsewhere through the country, another mostly quiet day was observed aside from in the northeast, where lake-effect snow continues to pound residents. NOAA's 24-hour snowfall accumulation map shows as of early this morning totals of 1-3" through a broad majority of the northeast, with some places picking up a heavier 6-8". Models show this pattern generally continuing at least into the first part of next week, as flow continues to roll over the top of ridging present in the Midwest.
- Otherwise, the weekend looks to be mostly dry through most of the country with that previously mentioned ridge allowing temps to warm up a bit for the next two-three days. The pattern stays progressive though, as another short-wave trough will move east out of the southwest, providing the rain event for the mid-south and southeast early next week that has been forecast for days now; this will also drop temps back off a bit through the middle of next week.
- Into the middle of next week, the GFS and EU are in disagreement on a potential snow event impacting parts of the Midwest; the GFS sees snow possibility for parts of IL/IN/OH/KY/WV starting next Tuesday, but the EU model keeps all this confined further to the north. This will be watched for coming out of the weekend next week.
- Argentina saw decent rains south of Buenos Aires on Thursday that were better than expected, but the rest of the country remained mostly dry. Brazil was dry in the south and up the east coast, while central and western growing regions picked up generally light rains of 0.01-0.5".
- For the weekend, forecast shows a drier period for central and eastern Brazil, while heavy rains are seen falling in the south and into Uruguay. Northern/northeast Argentina will also see some of these rains, while areas to the south and west remain on the drier side. Extended forecast continues to call for rains to return to most all of the two countries by December 20th.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Deliveries to the end the week included 50 contracts of soybean meal, 3 contracts of oats, and 7 contracts of wheat according to the CME Group.
- For the December WASDE report, due out Tuesday, the trade sees 2024/25 US corn ending stocks at 1.902 bil bu's (1.938 bil in Nov), soybean ending stocks at 473 mil bu's (470 mil Nov), and wheat ending stocks at 815 mil bu's (815 mil Nov). World corn stocks are seen down slightly from Nov at 303.6 mmt's, world soybean stocks are seen up slightly at 132.8 mmt's, and world wheat stocks are seen nearly unchanged at 257.7 mmt's.
- Balance sheet wise, there will be no adjustments made to US production figures this month, but the trade sees the possibility that ethanol use may be adjusted slightly higher for corn; there are little/no changes expected on the soybean side. Otherwise, crop estimates in Brazil are seen edging slightly higher in both crops, while Argy corn is seen declining slightly, while soybeans are seen increasing slightly.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly report, said Argentina corn planting had advanced 6.5% from last week to 47.8% complete, while soybean planting advanced 9.4% to 53.8% complete; the soybean planting pace is just 1% behind the five-year average, while corn planting remains well ahead of average. Wheat harvest advanced just over 9% to 48.1% complete.
- On the condition side, 100% of the soybean crop was rated either normal or good/excellent, while 99% of the corn crop saw the same ratings. The group also tracks soil moisture condition, which is seen at 96% adequate in corn areas, and 97% adequate in soybean areas. There were again no adjustments made to production or planted area estimates for either crop.
- Along with weekly export sales data yesterday, census export data for the month of October was also released, and showed corn exports in the month at 4.048 mmt's, soybean exports at 9.427 mmt's, and wheat exports at 1.423 mmt's. The corn figure was well above the USDA's weekly inspection figure, which had October exports at 3.150 mmt's. The soybean and wheat figures were near USDA numbers.
- French ag consultancy FranceAgriMer, in a weekly update, said soft wheat planting as of Monday the 2nd had reached 96% complete, compared to 87% last year and the five-year average of 93%. Corn planting was seen at 94% complete, which remains slightly behind average.
- US President Biden's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Thursday a proposal to lower the required credits tracking 2024 cellulosic biofuel consumption from 1.09 billion to 0.88 billion, citing lower than expected production throughout the year.
- The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in a monthly report that global food prices rose 0.5% in November to the highest level since 2023, mostly on rises in the price of vegetable oils. The group's specific veg-oil index climbed 7.5% from last month to its highest level since the Summer of 2022.
- Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending November 30th were seen at 793k tons, down 11.2% from last week. Corn shipments were down more than 34% at 303k tons, and soybean shipments were up 13.5% to 471k tons. STL barge rates were down 52 cents on the week to $15.40/short ton.
- Focus in the financial world to end the week will be focused on today's non-farm payrolls report for the month of November, which is expected to show a surge in job growth in the month after being constrained by strikes and hurricanes in September and October.
EXPORT NEWS:
Be safe out there!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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