Friday, January 17, 2020
Morning Markets: Corn +3. Beans -1. Wheat +1.
Topflight Grain will be closed on Monday, January 20th for the holiday. We will reopen on Tuesday, January 21st. Thanks!
MARKET SUMMARY:There is little doubt trade will continue to try and determine what the Phase 1 agreement means for US exports. This will start to fade though, and trade will soon be looking for additional sources of fresh fundamental news. This will likely put more emphasis on the upcoming South American harvest season, which will include weather conditions in those countries. Weather will also play a role in what may take place with double cropping in South America. We are seeing reports that double cropping with be down in Brazil which in turn will mean less corn competition for the US in the global market. Trade will soon start to show more attention on US weather forecasts as we approach the spring planting season. While we are still several weeks away from planting taking place, trade will be looking for any indication of a repeat of last year's wet spring. More importantly, trade will start to determine how much risk premium will be needed in futures ahead of the planting and growing seasons. This may be limited this year as conditions were less than perfect a year ago and production was still adequate. This may limit the amount of risk premium we see added to futures from this point forward, with some question as to whether it is needed at all in today's market environment. It is not out of the question that this could alter the way we look at markets from this point forward, as well as the way we market cash inventory. Trade will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr Holiday. Trade will reopen Tuesday morning at 8:30 CT. As a result, we may see elevated positioning take place in today's session.
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Crude Oil is up $0.18 at $58.70.
US Dollar is down $0.147 at $97.467.
Global Equities: Japan +0.4%, China +0.6%, and Europe +0.9%.
Dow futures up 267 points at 29,298.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn no change and Wheat +0.3%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: -1.3%.
- A mess of rain and snow is on its way from the southern Plains up through the central corn belt today, lingering in the ECB through tomorrow; precipitation looks heavy in the Plains in particular in both the 6-10 and 11-15 day time frames, drier in the ECB. Temperatures will be extremely cold behind this storm, though no winterkill is expected, and temps will rise next week and beyond.
- WEEKLY EXPORT SALES: Corn: 785,000 mt vs trade estimates of 350 – 700. Soybeans: 712,000 mt vs trade estimates of 400 – 800.
- China’s economy last year grew at the lowest rate since 1990 while the country’s birth rate fell to a record low. GDP grew 6.1% per cent in 2019, revealing an economy under pressure from weak consumer spending, rising unemployment and problems in the financial system. Economist continue to debate whether the damage of the trade dispute has largely run its course, or, as some experts fear, domestic troubles in banking, manufacturing and property have yet to take full effect.
- China's 2019 pork output fell to a 16-year low, official data showed on Friday. China produced 42.55 million tonnes of the meat last year, down 21.3% from 2018, and the lowest output since 2003. The pig herd declined 27.5% from a year earlier to 310.41 million head by the end of December. That is up from the 306.75 million head it reported for the first nine months of the year.
- USDA Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue reporting U.S. farmers will receive the final round of MFP payments.
- The Buenos Aires grains exchange lowered its estimate for Argentina's 2019/20 soy planting area to 17.4 million hectares from 17.5 million hectares due to dry conditions. 52% of the Argentine corn crop is rated at good to excellent vs. 62% a year ago.
- The U.S. Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics announced changes to economic data "lockup" procedures, which would result in the removal of computers from its Washington newsroom effective March 1st. The change was intended to keep data secure prior to public release, stay ahead of rapidly changing technology and remove the advantage of media in providing data to high-speed traders.
- Malaysian palm futures fell 1.5% on Friday and recorded their worst weekly decline in more than 11 years, dragged down by India's import restrictions on the refined product and an export tax hike.
- China will impose more curbs on agriculture and widen restrictions on industrial development in the next five years in a bid to protect scarce, already contaminated water supplies from further pollution.
Have a great day!!!! Chelsey WhiteEmery Branch Manager/Originator || Topflight Grain Coop593 Emery Rd. Maroa, Il 61756217-794-2240E-Mail: firstname.lastname@example.orgWeb: www.topflightgrain.comThis material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.