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Tuesday, May 30, 2023 Morning Markets: Corn -1 old & -6 new. Beans -16 old & -18 new. Wheat -14. MARKET SUMMARY: Month end positioning will build in today’s session. While the spot contracts do not go into delivery this month, traders still tend to shore up positions for their balance sheets. Given recent market activity this could easily lead to a flushing of weak short positions to give the market a bump. Fundamentally the market is hanging on weather for most of its supports as demand remains less than ideal. Traders are already holding large short positions in the grain and have liquidated most of their soybean position which does favor at least some buying. Most of the attention today will fall on weather outlooks following the extended weekend. More regions of the US are reporting drier conditions and the need for precipitation soon. While soils are not in drought condition for the most part, this can change quickly, and given the lack of risk premium can give us a futures rebound. We will see the updated planting progress data this afternoon and corn planting is expected to be mostly complete. The focus will be on North Dakota where last week’s progress showed roughly 2.5 million acres remained unplanted. We are now at the insurance plant date, which may cause a sizable portion of these to remain unplanted, especially given our current market values and this year’s insurance floors.
Crude Oil is down $0.93 at $71.74.
U.S. Dollar is down $0.002 at $104.024.
Global Equities: Japan -0.1%, China +0.2%, and Europe -0.1%.
Dow futures is up 46 points at 33,171.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -1.3%, and Wheat -0.8%.
Dalian: Corn +0.2%, Soybeans +1.1%, Meal -1.2%.
WEATHER:
- U.S. Midwest (east of the Mississippi River) rainfall will remain lighter than usual for the next week to possibly ten days with warm temperatures likely into the weekend.
- Upper U.S. Midwest afternoon temperatures will rise into the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit periodically over the coming week while upper 70s and 80s occur in most other areas.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- Russia warned the West on Monday that a deal allowing Ukrainian grain to be exported from the Black Sea would cease unless a United Nations agreement aimed at overcoming obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports was fulfilled. The United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea deal for an initial 120 days in July last year to help tackle a global food crisis that has been aggravated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, one of the world's leading grain exporters. Russia has repeatedly warned it will allow the deal to expire because of obstacles to its own exports of grain and fertilizer caused by Western sanctions, but on May 17 Moscow agreed to extend for two more months. "If everything remains as it is, and apparently it will, then it will be necessary to proceed from the fact that it [the deal] is no longer functioning," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said during a visit to Nairobi when asked if the Black Sea deal should be extended again.
- The Brazilian unit of commodities trader Bunge launched on Monday a fintech with $500 million available to provide funding for deals between farmers and retailers of agricultural inputs. The new business, called Fin crop, will grant credit after a risk assessment focused on social and environmental criteria, the firm said. Bunge will verify sustainable practices through the monitoring of data from the farms, including satellite imagery and real time field information. The company does not finance farmers directly, but instead engages in barter operations, wherein farmers sell a portion of their crops in advance in exchange for agricultural inputs from retailers.
- Heavy rain has flooded wheat fields in China's central Henan province, just days ahead of the harvest, pushing up prices and raising concerns about the quality of this year's crop in the world's top consumer of the grain. The rain, which started in the middle of last week in the southern half of Henan, is causing some of the wheat to sprout or become affected by blight, according to videos posted on social media and a local grain dealer. "Wheat is still unharvested and already sprouting," the dealer surnamed Li told Reuters on Monday. China is expected to harvest a bumper crop this year, with officials estimating a crop at least as large as last year's.
- Export prices of Russian wheat are softening further in anticipation of a new harvest and amid low demand from global importers, analysts said. A deal to allow Ukraine to export its grain safely across the Black Sea was extended last week for two months. The prices of Russia's new wheat crop with 12.5% protein content, delivered free on board (FOB) from the Black Sea, was assessed at $230 a tonne compared to $242 a tonne from the previous week for the old crop, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said.
EXPORT NEWS: Have a wonderful day!!!! Chelsey WhiteEmery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756 Phone:: 217-794-2240E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.comWeb:: www.topflightgrain.comThis material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
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