|
Wednesday, February 19, 2025 Morning Markets: Corn -1.25 old & -1 new. Beans -1.25 old & -1.50 new. Wheat -5.75. MARKET SUMMARY: Good morning. Ag markets in Chicago have again spent most of the overnight session trading quietly higher to start Wednesday, with corn and soybeans having each retested yesterday's high-water mark early in the day this morning. With spot corn able to clear the $5 level for the first time in more than a year on Tuesday, it will be important for the bull camp today to hold onto those gains and not immediately reject the new foray into higher prices. Looking at the big picture, longer term price direction continues to hinge primarily on weather in South America and ongoing trade policy discussions from the Trump administration, with there again being little in the way of fresh market moving news so far this morning. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a half cent lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are up 50-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 110 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is down 50 points. Gold futures are quietly higher, and coffee futures had a small gap-higher open and are up around 10 cents/lb. Crude Oil is up $0.64 at $72.49 US Dollar is up at $107.219 Global Equities: Japan -0.3%, China -0.1%, and Europe -0.3% Dow futures is down 63 points at 44,580 Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0% EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.1% and Wheat -0.3% WEATHER:
- South American rainfall was again heaviest in/around Paraguay on Tuesday, stretching south and west in northern Argentina and also north and east into southern Brazil, providing rainfall of 0.5-2" to these areas generally speaking. The remainder of Brazil and Argentina were largely dry, which should have once again been of benefit to the Brazilian farmer.
- Forecasts overnight trended drier in these same areas though, with models now showing just limited precip through northern Argentina and Southern Brazil through the end of this week, with the heaviest rainfall totals seen further east out into the Atlantic. Models do show a small pocket of rainfall potential south of Buenos Aires, which we would actually see as probably being under-forecast due to the convective nature of the thunderstorms that have been popping here recently.
- Not a lot new for the US forecast overnight, as models remain in fair agreement on a warm-up for a majority of the country once the brutally cold air currently in place retreats back north into next week. Precip-wise, there also remains fair agreement on a drier pattern emerging for most of the country for a few days beyond today, with most of the Midwest not seeing precip in the forecast until a light rain event is seen next Tuesday/Wednesday.
- The model agreement then ends though, as the forecasts for the week two period continue to see significantly different outlooks; generally speaking, the EU and GFS ensembles agree on relatively average precip for most of the central US and a wet northeast, while the CPC and the EU AI model remain noticeably wetter through the mid-section of the US. On temps, both the EU ensemble and the EU AI see a generally warm forecast into March 6th, while the GFS sees a return to cooler air in the east after the first of March. Confidence remains low in the forecast beyond the next 7-10 days.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- First revisiting yesterday, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) showed US soybean crush in the month of January at 200.383 mil bu's, which was below the average trade guess but still the second highest monthly crush figure ever recorded; the group accounts for more than 95% of total US soybean crush. They also saw soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month at 1.274 bil lbs, which up roughly 3% from December but still down more than 15% from January of last year.
- While safrinha corn planting in Brazil continues to lag normal pace, progress in second-largest producing state Parana in the south has advanced to 56% complete as of Tuesday, which is now nearly the double the five-year average rate of 28%. Deral (Brazil's Dept of Rural Economy) also mentioned that soybean harvest progress in the state had advanced to 40% complete as of Monday, which was up 7% from the week prior.
- Also out of Brazil, the country's Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira on Tuesday told sources that the nation's energy council had decided to keep the mandatory biodiesel blend rate at 14%, as opposed to the 15% that was originally planned to take effect in March; Silveira cited rising food prices as a reason for the decision, and also mentioned that further deliberation could be taken at any time. Sources from oilseed lobby Abiove said they expect a review of the decision "as quickly as possible."
- Presumably as a result of Trump's tariff threats, officials from Thailand's feed industry on Tuesday announced plans to source around $2.8 bil USD worth of ag commodities annually from the US instead of other suppliers. The move is seen as a first step in narrowing Thailand's trade deficit with the US, which as of most recent data stands at around $35 bil USD. The Thai Feed Mill Association is currently in talks with the government over easing import restrictions on products like corn and meal.
- We continue to scratch our heads a bit over wheat's ability to rally despite seemingly daily progress being made on a resolution to the war in Ukraine; the latest details indicate concern on behalf of the Ukrainian's and their European counterparts on a lack of security guarantees, while Trump said he would "probably" meet with Russian President Putin in person by the end of this month. We note that Trump was also "probably" going to have a meeting with Chinese President Xi earlier this month, that to this point, has not occurred.
EXPORT NEWS:
Be safe! Bailey Runyen Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop. 101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830 Phone :: 217-669-2141 Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
|
|