Monday, January 25, 2021
Morning Markets: Corn -3. Beans -5. Wheat -3. MARKET SUMMARY: Futures consolidated overnight with corn 2-3 cents lower, soybeans mixed, and wheat 2-3 cents higher. The US Dollar continues to firm while the equity markets were on both sides of unchanged and energy values were stronger. Much of this week’s trade will focus on month end positioning. While none of the spot contracts go into delivery this month, this is always a factor in trade. Many of the same fundamental factors that influenced trade last week will again be factors this week with the main ones being weather and demand. South American weather greatly improved last week and took some of the risk premium out of futures. Traders are hesitant to remove too much of this however, as the global market cannot afford to lose any production at this time. Long-range weather outlooks remain dry for South America, but thoughts are the improvement we have seen with help buffer against future production losses. We have seen a shift in concern where too much rain may delay harvest. The other factor that remains a key topic is rationing. It appears many buyers have shifted their soybean demand to new crop, mainly China. This is welcomed by trade as we cannot afford to sell anymore old crop soybeans given current ending stocks estimates. The start of the South American harvest and a willingness for those countries to make sales is helping with US rationing, as is a firming US dollar. Crude Oil is up $0.29 at $52.56. US Dollar is down $0.015 at $90.223.Global Equities: Japan +0.3%, China +2.4%, and Europe -0.2%. Dow futures is down 20 points at 30,889.EU MATIF Exchange: Corn no change, and Wheat -0.5%.Malaysian Palm Oil: -0.8%. WEATHER:
- Good precipitation continues to fall in the southern Plains and Midwest this morning, with an active forecast remaining; temps finally cool a bit in the 11-15.
- WEEKLY EXPORT SALES: Corn: 1,438,000 mt vs trade estimates of 500 – 1,000,000; sold 72% of USDA estimate vs 53% average. Soybeans: 1,818,000 mt vs trade estimate of 200 – 700,000; sold 95% of USDA estimate vs 76% average.
- Weekly EIA Ethanol Report: Production: +4,000 at 945,000 BPD (+0.4%); trade exp -1%. Stocks: -64,000 to 23.628 million barrels (-0.3%); trade exp +1%.
- Today’s weekly Export Inspections report will likely show another week of large soybean shipment. There are still no signs of demand rationing with inspections and sales both running significantly above the USDA projection.
- President Biden’s push for a sweeping coronavirus-relief bill is emerging as the first test of his attempt to bring bipartisanship to Washington. Sixteen senators from both parties met with three Biden aids on Sunday to discuss Biden’s 1.9 trillion rescue plan.
- Brazilian farmers are poised to reap a record harvest of 132.2 MMTs of soybeans in 2021 despite a drought that delayed plantings, according to the average of estimates in a poll of 13 analysts on Friday. In December, the consensus forecast showed farmers would harvest 131.79 MMTs.
EXPORT NEWS: Have a great day!!!! Chelsey WhiteEmery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756 Phone:: 217-794-2240E-Mail:: firstname.lastname@example.orgWeb:: www.topflightgrain.comThis material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
- Friday’s COT report showed the funds were net long 20,618 contracts of Chicago wheat, up 3,631 contracts, long 349,500 contracts of corn, down 25,219, long 151,898 contracts of soybeans, down 14,587, long 77,631 contracts of soymeal, down 6,777 and 90,699 contracts of soy oil, down 2,837.