|Monday, September 26, 2022 |
Morning Markets: Corn -1. Beans +1. Wheat -5.
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Much of this week’s trade will focus on two points of interest; the quarterly stocks data and month end positioning. We do not see spot contracts go into delivery which will temper volatility from that aspect. This does not mean we will not see elevated volatility though as we are at the end of the third quarter of the year. This tends to cause the managed money group to adjust their positions in the market, even if just for a short period of time. What will be more of a factor for trade to start the week is positioning for the quarterly stocks data that will be released this Friday the 30th. This will be the inventory of corn, soybeans, and wheat the United States had in storage as of September 1st. In effect this will be the ending stocks for the 2021/22 marketing year on corn and soybeans. Trade is expecting to see a slightly higher corn number and slightly lower soybean inventory than last year. What trade may show more interest in is where the inventory is being held. Farmer sales have slowed considerably in recent weeks which is not typical ahead of the harvest season. Cash buyers will closely monitor current inventory and yield reports to see how much grain will be available right at harvest and how much they need to adjust bids to keep movement happening.
Crude Oil is down $0.74 at $78.00
US Dollar is up $0.449 at $113.641
Global Equities: Japan -2.7%, China -0.4%, and Europe -0.1%
Dow futures is down 173 points at 29,496
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -1.0%, and Wheat -1.2%
Malaysian Palm Oil: -5.1%
Dalian: Corn -1.9%, Soybeans -0.7%, Meal -1.1%
- The weather looks clear across most of the Midwest, which should aid in activity harvest progress. Temps will feel more fall-like, but no real freezes are forecasted at this point. Hurricane Ian is approaching Cuba and is expected to move up through Florida later this week.
- Recession/inflation fears were renewed again late last week and have spilled over to start the new week. Nearly all the central banks around the globe are raising rates to fight against inflation. Equity futures are lower with the DOW slipping under 30,000 last Friday.
- Soymeal prices in China, the world's top consumer of the animal feed ingredient, are at record highs as rising demand from farmers follows months of lackluster soybean imports. The surge in spot prices to an average 5,352 yuan ($747.94) per tonne on Friday could curb enthusiasm for expanding hog herds, supporting hog prices that have already rallied about 40% this summer. China's soybean crushers, who turn beans into protein-rich meal to feed animals and into oil for cooking, have scaled back purchases of soybeans in recent months due to high global prices and poor demand from the livestock industry
- Russian farmers could sow less winter grains for the 2023 crop this autumn than a year ago due to heavy rains which replaced dry weather in the central and southern regions, analysts said. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, supplying the grain mainly to Africa and the Middle East. Farmers have already sown winter grains on 8.6 million hectares, down 1.5 million hectares from the area at the same point a year ago, Sovecon consultancy said, adding that the gap was 1.1 million hectares a week ago. "This is the lowest area for this week since 2013. The farmers need to speed up shortly or we are likely to see a substantial decrease in the final area," Sovecon said in a note.
- The Asian branch of global crop merchant Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) said on Monday it had entered into an agreement with Longriver Farms for the acquisition of Australian grain handler Emerald Grain. The agreement is subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. Emerald Grain is a leading grain handling business in Australia, with a network of seven grain storage and receival sites across the states of New South Wales and Victoria, with a combined storage capacity of approximately one million tonnes, and a grain export terminal at the Port of Melbourne, LDC said in a statement.
- Malaysian palm oil futures fell more than 8% on Monday to hit their lowest in 15 months, after a leading industry analyst warned that prices would plunge by more than 30% by the end of this year due to ample supply and weaker demand.
Have a wonderful day!!!!
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
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