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Friday, November 14, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn: +0.
Beans: +1.50. Wheat: +5.75.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Friday. And happy USDA report day. CBOT ag markets are mostly higher in decent volume this morning ahead of what is expected to be one of the more volatile trading sessions we've seen in recent weeks as the USDA makes its much-awaited return to the data delivery space. Obviously the numbers seen at 11am central time will be the main driving factors of price throughout the back half of the day today and presumably into the week next week, but we would continue to encourage readers to not forget about the big crop currently growing in South America just because supply side focus might briefly shift back to the USA today. It's a global market and the world is not currently short supplies. Aside from that, we've got little prediction for how the day goes otherwise; computer algorithms will likely have a heyday with the sheer number of data points that are all going to drop at the same time and overall direction will be based on which one they see as most important. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-6 cents higher. Products are quietly higher, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged and soybean oil is up around 10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 300 points and the US$ index is up 5 points; the S&P500 is down 70 points, and the NASDAQ is down 400 points.
Crude Oil is up $1.16 at $59.85
US Dollar is down at $98.96
Global Equities: Japan +0.0%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.0%
Dow futures are down 316 points at 47,231
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- Will keep weather comments short this morning with not a lot new the last 24 hours going into the weekend for the Midwest. Dry conditions will continue to dominate most of the region through Sunday/Monday, before light/scattered precip is seen showing up for a narrow band through the central part of the region Monday into Tuesday. The second half of next week then sees significant rainfall potential through the generally the whole of the east-central US, with totals from the EU model seen ranging from 1-3" generally, with some locally heavier 4-6" possible further to the south.
- South of the equator, models see rainfall returning to Argentina's growing regions Saturday into Sunday, with this moisture then expected to expand north into southern Brazil by the middle of next week. The EU model this morning is wetter through northern Brazil then into the end of next week than the GFS is, but also sees a noticeable hole through a pocket of east-central Brazil that will be on the drier side into next weekend. The model sees rains filling in for the area beyond here, but as this is some 220+ hours out, our confidence is not great.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- According to the CME Group, there were another 38 contracts of November soybean futures assigned for delivery overnight, along with 39 contracts of rough rice.
- According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders see this morning's WASDE update showing US corn production at 16.566 bil bu with a national avg yield of 184.0 bu/acre. US ending stocks are seen at 2.168 bil bu, while world stocks are seen at 283.2 MMTs. For soybeans, production is seen at 4.271 mil bu with yield at 53.1 bu/acre; US ending stocks are seen at 306 mil bu, while world stocks are seen at 124.4 MMTs. Wheat stocks in the US are seen at 869 mil bu, while world wheat stocks are seen at 265.9 MMTs.
- As a reminder, the USDA is also going to release a summary report of all the missed daily sales flashes that would've occurred between October 1 and November 13 at 11am central time this morning as well.
- Further pertaining to the resumption of normal data flow, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a statement that it was developing a plan to release the delayed economic data, adding that it needs time to fully assess the situation but that getting the information out as soon as possible is a priority. The Bureau did not mention in the statement anything regarding possibly not releasing any of the missed data, which had been rumored by the White House earlier this week.
- In a weekly update, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 76% of the corn planted area was in good/excellent condition, with planting progress unchanged from last week at 36.6% as farmers wait for the planting window to resume when rains typically return at the end of the month. Soybean planting progress was seen at 13% complete, which is up 8% from last week but still 7% behind the pace seen last year. Lastly, the group said wheat harvest had advanced to 16.5% complete; they also raised their production forecast to 24 MMTs, which if accurate, would be a new record.
- Brazil's Agricultural Exchange (BAB), an ag trading platform that just started operations in September, has recorded the first physical settlement of a grain derivatives contract in more than 15 years, as the group said three contracts, or 1,800 MTs, of corn had been delivered to a rail terminal in Mato Grosso. The group added another 15 contracts were expected to be delivered later in November. BAB is backed by logistics powerhouse Rumo, and was designed specifically to link the derivatives market directly to the region's cash grain market. Futures on the B3 Exchange, Brazil's more common futures exchange, are not physically delivered.
- As part of its ongoing efforts to combat the New World Screwworm, the USDA on Thursday announced that it had opened a sterile fly dispersal facility in Tampico, Mexico; the facility will allow officials to disperse flies aerially in northern regions like Nuevo Leon, where recent outbreaks occurred earlier this fall. Experts say aerial dispersion is preferred as opposed to ground dispersion due to the ability for aerial operations to more quickly reach a larger area, and also can release flies in areas that may be unreachable from the ground.
- NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) is set to release monthly crush and soybean oil stocks data for the US on Monday. Traders see the group showing October likely reaching an all-time record at 209.522 mil bu, which would be up 6% from last month and up 5% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are seen at 1.257 bil lbs, which would be a three-month high and up 17% from the same month last year.
- According to several sources familiar with the discussions, talks were had at the White House this week with both oil refiners and biofuel producers amid the ongoing policy debate over what will happen with the recently announced SREs and whether any of the exemptions will be reallocated to larger refiners. It’s unclear exactly what the result of these talks was, but sources say that they are happening signals the administration may be close to making some sort of announcement on the matter. Sources say the ongoing discussion regarding the year-round sale of E15 was also part of the talks.
- French crop body FranceAgriMer said in a weekly update that corn harvest in the country had reached 96% complete as of Monday, which remains well ahead of the five-year average of 90%. Meanwhile, soft-wheat planting also remains ahead of average through the same day, with data showing progress at 89% complete vs 83% normally.
EXPORT NEWS:
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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