|Friday, September 22, 2023 |
Morning Markets: Corn -1. Beans +7. Wheat +2.
The commodity market has seen a shift in attitude recently to more of a risk-off mentality. This is not uncommon at the end of the growing season as weather related risk premium is pulled out of futures. Demand for US commodities is also slowing, and this is further diminishing the need for risk premium, even on soybeans where balance sheets remain tight. Instead, trade is now focusing on South American production and without a substantial weather threat in those countries there is little incentive for managed money buyers to own commodity futures, and this has been the greatest source of price support in recent months. Seasonal harvest pressure has also been weighing on the market as hedge pressure is building. This may not be a long-lasting source of pressure though as farmer sales are expected to be light as soon as harvest is complete. This year appears to be a storage year and that tends to favor cash market values. Basis values are widening considerably in areas that harvest is taking place, but if sales halt basis will react accordingly, especially with domestic demand increasing.
Crude Oil is up $0.92 at $90.55.
U.S. Dollar is up $0.143 at $105.603.
Global Equities: Japan -0.3%, China +2.3%, and Europe -0.2%.
Dow futures is up 30 points at 34,367.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.4%, and Wheat -0.2%.
- Rain moved through a large part of Illinois yesterday. The western side of the Mississippi River is expected to see some heavy totals over the next few days. Still hoping this offers some relief for the river. Temps will warm up briefly this weekend before cooling down again next week.
- The first big ship carrying grain from a Ukrainian Black Sea port has set sail since Moscow quit a deal in July to allow exports, a Ukrainian deputy prime minister said on Friday, part of Kyiv's campaign to break Russia's de facto blockade.
- Indian Potash does not expect supplies of Canadian potash to be affected by the diplomatic row between the India and Canada, its managing director said on Friday, and hopes to extend a contract with Canadian supplier Canpotex beyond the end of September. India is a leading fertiliser importer to support its vast agriculture sector, which employs about half of its 1.4 billion people and accounts for nearly 15% of its $3 trillion economy. Canada is one of the key suppliers of potash to India and Indian companies last year signed a memorandum of understanding with Canpotex to buy up to 1.5 million metric tons of potash a year for 3 years, starting from 2023.
- Argentina's sales of the upcoming wheat crop are the slowest in seven years, delayed by farmers waiting for heavier rainfall and gambling on the result of the country's Oct. 22 presidential election, with some candidates pledging tax cuts on grains exports. Argentina, a major exporter of wheat, along with soy and corn, has recorded just 1.51 million metric tons of pre-sales of the upcoming 2023/24 harvest by Sept. 13, latest government data showed this week, the slowest since 2016/17 and a sharp drop from recent years.
- An estimated 81% of French grain maize crops were in good or excellent condition by Sept. 18, down from 82% the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday. That compared with a 43% score a year earlier, the office said in a weekly cereal crop report. French farmers had gathered 6% of this year's maize harvest by Sept. 18, up from 1% the previous week but down compared to 24% last year and below a five-year average of 10%.
- The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for 2023/24 global corn production, boosted by an improved outlook for Ukraine's crop. The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, raised its 2023/24 global corn crop forecast by 1 million metric tons to 1.222 billion tons, with Ukraine's output seen at 28 million tons, up from a previous projection of 27 million. The IGC also trimmed its 2023/24 world wheat crop outlook by 1 million metric tons to at 783 million, with downgrades for Australia (25.4 million tons from 27.9 million), Canada (29.8 million from 31.5 million) and Argentina (16.6 million from 17.5 million). The impact was partially offset by upward revisions for Russia (87.4 million tons from 84.4 million) and Ukraine (25.9 million from 24.5 million).
Have a wonderful day!!!!
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.