|Tuesday, October 26, 2021 |
Morning Markets: Corn -2. Beans -2. Wheat -7.
United Prairie will be serving steak sandwiches on Wednesday, October 27th from 11am-1pm at Emery.
One of the dominant factors in current price discovery is demand. For the past several weeks we have heard concerns over the slow demand for US commodities. This has mostly been on soybeans where sales trail last year by a considerable volume. Wheat sales also trail last year. Corn sales have been better, but this is mostly from an early surge in Chinese bookings which have been nonexistent in recent weeks. The main reason we are not seeing active export sales is competition from other sources in the global market, mainly Brazil on soybeans and Ukraine on corn. These two suppliers are expected to exhaust their exportable inventories in the very near future, leaving the US as the primary export source in the global market. This may favor corn demand as it will be a longer period before another crop is available for import needs than on soybeans, which will likely be coming out of South America in January. Corn exports could easily last into the spring months, possibly until April. This is the primary reason some analysts are showing less concern over the slow pace we have seen to start the marketing year.
Crude Oil is down $0.31 at $83.45.
US Dollar is down $0.043 at $93.77.
Global Equities: Japan +1.2%, China -0.4%, and Europe +0.5%.
Dow futures is up 114 points at 35,734.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.1%, and Wheat -0.6%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: +1.5%.
Dalian: Corn +1.7%, Soybeans +0.1%, and Meal -0.6%
- Rains moved out of the ECB over the past 24 hours and the Plains and Midwest are dry this morning; action will fire back up in the western U.S. today with rains heaviest in the heart of the belt through the remainder of the work week. Conditions look drier past that, for the weekend through the 6–10-day time frame. Above normal precipitation looks to finally return into the far west by the end of the 11-15 day. Temperatures will bottom out into the 6-10, rebounding back to normal or better for the 11–15-day span in early November.
- Crop progress report showed corn 66% harvested and beans at 73% harvested.
- Russia's biggest pork producer, privately held Miratorg, reported on Tuesday an outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) at a site in the Belgorod province in central Russia. Spread partly by wild boars, ASF is harmless to human beings but is highly contagious among pigs. The company said it has taken all measures to localize the outbreak. Last month, Miratorg reported a similar outbreak at another site in the same province.
- Larry Fink, chief executive of the world's largest asset manager BlackRock, said on Tuesday that there is a high probability of oil reaching $100 a barrel. Fink, who was speaking at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Saudi Arabia, also called for more collaboration between the public and private sectors to tackle global challenges such as climate change.
- China's top economic planner said on Tuesday it was studying a mechanism to stabilize coal prices over the long run, in its latest move to cool the red-hot market. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said it was looking into the costs and profitability of the coal sector to work out a mechanism to guide prices to move within a reasonable range. The NDRC was also considering including coal in a "prohibiting exorbitant profits" category. The new mechanism would be based on a benchmark price plus a floating range, after considering costs, reasonable margins, and market changes, it said.
- Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a second session on Tuesday stoked by lingering concerns of tight supply, while a strong gain in rival oils also helped prices. The benchmark palm oil contract for January delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 1.43% to 5,040 ringgit ($1,215.04) per tonne by midday break, extending a 0.93% gain a day earlier.
- WEEKLY EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn loadings: 545,000 mt; Shipped 8% of USDA estimate vs 11% average. Soybean loadings: 2,104,000 mt; Shipped 14% of USDA estimate vs 19% average.
- USDA attaché sees Argentina corn production for 2021-2022 at a record 54.5 MMTs, 1.5 MMTs higher than the USDA. Corn exports are projected at a record 40 MMTs, 2.0 MMTs higher than USDA. The post pegs Argentina wheat production at 20.0 MMTs, the same as USDA’s official number.
- 125,730 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
Have a great day!!!!
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
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