Morning Markets: Corn -1. Beans -5. Wheat -3.Due to the COVID-19 virus we are locking all outside doors at our offices and conducting business through mail, phone and email until further notice. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Final positioning ahead of today's USDA reports will dominate early trade in today's session. The most talked about going into this data has been on acres as trade is expecting to see a major portion of last year's 17 million prevent plant acres find their way back into production this year. Thoughts are this will add 4.63 million acres to corn production and 8.77 million acres to soybean plantings. These numbers are highly suspect though as very little planting has taken place in the United States, with none in the Corn Belt. Weather over the next several weeks will dictate actual plantings, along with market economics. More producers are starting to question corn demand outlooks which may alter planting decisions. Quarterly stocks will also be released this morning, and in all reality, are more of a true figure for the market. Demand is more of a known number and will show us just how much actual usage we have seen this year. Trade is expecting to see declines to the inventory of corn, soybeans, and wheat from a year ago. The greatest drop is forecast for soybean stocks with a 17.8% decline from a year ago. Corn is pegged at 5.7% and wheat at 10.1%. Even with these declines, inventory of all three commodities is not at a point where trade will be worried with scaling back future demand. The data used to calculate these numbers was mostly from before the Coronavirus outbreak gained momentum though, which will impact future demand and be reflected in the June release. The June revisions to planted acres may also be more of a market factor as planting will be taking place by then, and hopefully be done in most of the Corn Belt. Today also marks month and quarter end which will increase trader activity.
Crude Oil is up $1.40 at $21.49.
US Dollar is up $0.540 at $99.721.
Global Equities: Japan -2.3%, China +1.9%, and Europe +0.2%.
Dow futures is up 24 points at 22,191.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.3% and Wheat no change.
Malaysian Palm Oil: -1.8%.
Dalian: Corn no change, Soybeans +0.7%, Meal -1.8%.
- NOAA’s 6 to 10 as well as the 8 to 14-day maps have turned much warmer than previous runs. Rainfall totals will remain above normal in the Delta while the Midwest should see normal to slightly above normal rainfall totals.
- WEEKLY EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn loadings: 817,000 mt vs trade estimates of 700,000 – 1,100,000. Shipped 38% of USDA estimate vs 45% average. Soybean loadings: 571,000 mt vs trade estimates of 500,000 - 700,000. Shipped 63% of USDA estimate vs 75% average.
- USDA Crop Progress: Corn Planting: TX is 50% planted (+14% on the week) vs 41% average. Wheat Conditions (G/E): KS is 50% (+2%) while OK is 70% (-7%).
- Oil prices firmed on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks aimed at stabilizing energy markets. Exactly what this means is elusive.
- Argentine shipments of soymeal, soybeans, corn and other agricultural exports were delayed as the government ramps up inspections of incoming cargo ships to ensure crew members were free of coronavirus.
- Russia will sell 1 million tonnes of grain from its state stockpile to its domestic market. The announcement comes a day after the economy ministry backed a proposal made by the agriculture ministry to limit Russian grain exports to 7 million tonnes from April through June because of the coronavirus pandemic.
- The average trade estimate for next week’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report has corn stocks as of March 1st at 8.125 billion bushels, soy stocks are pegged at 2.241 billion and wheat stocks are estimated at 1.432 billion bushels.
- The average trade estimate for next week’s USDA Prospective Plantings report has corn acerra estimated at 94.328 million, soy 84.865 million and wheat acres at 44.982 million acres.
- News wire reporting China has dropped ban on Canadian canola.
- China’s official Purchasing Manager’s Index for March was 52.0 versus trade expectations of 45. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing while a reading below 50 indicate contraction.
- USDA says 113,000 tons of corn sold to Japan in 19/20.
Have a great day!!!! Chelsey WhiteEmery Branch Manager/Originator || Topflight Grain Coop593 Emery Rd. Maroa, Il 61756217-794-2240E-Mail: firstname.lastname@example.orgWeb: www.topflightgrain.comThis material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.