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Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Morning Markets: Corn: -1.50 old & -1 new.
Beans: -2.50 old & +0.50 new. Wheat: +1.75.
All TFG locations will be closed Monday, February 16th for Presidents’ Day!
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Markets are seeing more mixed trade this morning across the CBOT to get Tuesday started, with the corn and beans quietly in the red, wheat quietly in the green, and the products quietly mixed. With the USDA's February supply and demand update having come and gone with little to no fanfare, traders are now back to trying to figure out whether ballooning supplies in South America are going to outweigh potential demand sentiments out of China, with there still being considerable question marks surrounding the latter. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-3 cents higher.
Crude Oil is up $1.76 at $65.72
US Dollar is up at $96.785
Dow futures are up 233 points at 50,506
WEATHER:
- Wednesday weather for the Midwest will, like recent days, look to be mostly calm again throughout the day today, while a line of storms works across the southeastern US and likely drops just light rainfall totals of a tenth to a half inch or so over the next 24 hours. Models see another system then for this weekend, but precip will again likely only reach southern portions of the Midwest, and will be mostly south of the Ohio River. Temperatures look to remain warm, with there still little sign of any cooler air returning to the central US over the next two weeks.
- Models are continuing to try and trend drier into the back half of the month for central Brazil, which is a welcome shift that should aid in soybean harvest progress and safrinha corn planting into March. Rains will still be around, but the models have trended more spotty in their coverage all week this week. Not much new for Argentina this morning, as improving soil moisture still looks likely in the south over the next ten days, though the EU model is slightly drier than the GFS is in the period.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA, with data for the week ending February 6th, is expected to show average daily US production in the week between 950k-1.056 mil bbls/day, while stocks in the week are estimated between 25.00-25.736 mil bbls. The report is due out at its regular 9:30am central release time.
- Following the USDA's WASDE update on Tuesday, Brazil's CONAB will give its similar monthly update tomorrow on Thursday, with numbers due out at 6am central time. Traders see soybean production coming in at 179.5 MMTs, which compares to last month's estimate of 176.1 MMTs and the USDA's 180.0 MMTs. Total corn production, meanwhile, is seen at 140.1 MMTs, up from 138.9 MMTs last month and compared to the USDA at 131.0 MMTs.
- Indonesia's palm oil association said this week that the country's production was likely to only rise by 2 or 3% this year, which would be down from the 8% increase seen last year in 2025. Similarly, global output is seen actually declining this year from last, with analysts predicting production to total just 84.5 MMTs vs 85.24 MMTs in 2025; Malaysia, who is the world's number two producer, is expected to see production drop from 20.28 MMTs to just 19.87 MMTs this year.
- Ukraine's deputy economy minister said on Wednesday that the country will likely finish corn harvest this year sometime in March, as unfavorable weather has led to significant delays throughout most of the harvest season. While a little less than 10% of the area was left to be harvested, the minister also added that he didn't expect the entire volume to be lost, but mentioned that quality would likely be an issue. The Minister confirmed production forecasts of around 30 MMTs, which are slightly below other private estimates.
- A White House fact sheet on the trade deal with India, released earlier this week, seemingly removed language around earlier references to Indian imports of pulses and also seemed to soften the language around the proposed $500 billion purchase package President Trump had touted in recent weeks. Previously, the purchases agreement had been framed as a "firm commitment", but language now seems to indicate nothing more than intent, which is leading some to believe the "deal" may not be quite as finalized as had been originally believed.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Tuesday that a stopgap funding bill would almost certainly be required to keep the Dept of Homeland Security funded beyond Friday, and also admitted that there currently didn't exist a clear path forward on the matter. ICE funding seems to be at the heart of the issue, but ICE is already funded through 2029 which means any DHS shutdown would likely have more of an impact on TSA and other related agencies as opposed to immigration/border enforcement.
- While there's been a lot of chatter this week, there's not a lot materially new on the trade front in recent days. Tensions between the US and Canada seem to still be simmering, with the latest round of ire seemingly coming over the building of a bridge that crosses the US-Canada border, with Trump telling PM Mark Carney that it was unacceptable for Canada to own land on both sides of the border. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent has continued to tout ongoing stable but slow progress with China, while USTR Greer has made continual mention of progress with Mexico ahead of broader USMCA reviews later this summer.
EXPORT NEWS:
- Private exporters reported sales of 230,560 metric tons of corn received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Be careful!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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