Topflight Grain Co

Thursday, November 6, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn: -2.25.
Beans: -11.50. Wheat: -8.50.

MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Mostly lower trade in the ag space to start Thursday, with a quiet afternoon/evening of news leading prices to drift lower this morning in the corn, bean and wheat markets, while the product markets are seeing spread activity to start the day. We touched on it a bit yesterday, but speaking specifically to the corn and beans, that the markets have made highs in generally the same area every day this week seems to be telling that there is either some sort of value near current levels, or traders realize that the rally maybe went a little too far, too fast and are now taking pause to see whether the developments that got us here will actually come to fruition. The headlines are great, but bigger picture price direction from here over the next couple months will be a product of actual export data and whether the newly announced trade business cuts into current ending stocks estimates. Remember, soybean futures are already at their highest level in more than a year almost purely on speculation that this business shows up; to expect an explosive rally that just blows the top off without any evidence of bushels being shipped and still no weather issues on the other side of the world would seem somewhat foolish to us at this point. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 5-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-8 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is giving back most of what it gained yesterday and is down around $7/ton, while soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are again quietly mixed for the most part, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.

Crude Oil is up $0.43 at $60.03
US Dollar is down at $99.94
Global Equities: Japan -1.3%, China -0.1%, and Europe -0.2%
Dow futures are up 9 points at 47,223
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.5% and Wheat +0.3%

WEATHER:

Again little to nothing new this morning on the weather forecast for the US Midwest the rest of the week this week and into the weekend; models continue to be in good agreement that light precip possibly showing up for the eastern and east-central Midwest tonight into tomorrow, while temperatures are still expected to see a sharp drop-off Saturday into Sunday. The first snow chances of the season also remain present this morning for the upper Midwest, but accumulation still doesn't appear likely anywhere but on the downwind side of the Great Lakes.
The EU model this morning shows rains the rest of this week for the northern part of Brazil, but most of the central growing regions will remain dry for another couple days before rains look to return Saturday into Sunday and then likely continue through the week next week. The model has also expanded precip for most of Argentina this morning in the short term over the next 48 hours, though the far southeastern growing areas towards Buenos Aires look to continue to be short-changed compared to the rest of the country. Totals for both countries through Sunday night look to range from 1-2", with some locally heavier amounts possible.

OTHER HEADLINES:

Soybean deliveries picked back up again for Thursday, with the CME Group overnight last night assigning another 377 contracts, as well as 40 contracts of rough rice.
Trade estimates for the still delayed weekly export sales report show corn sales for the week ending October 30th between 800k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 400k-2.0 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 250k-650k MTs.
Argentina's main oilseed crushers chamber (CIARA-CEC) and the laborer's union (SOEA) have reportedly come to a wage agreement that averts a worker strike that was planned to start this morning. The deal ensures operations at Argentina's key Rosario, San Lorenzo and San Martin crush facilities will be uninterrupted and will continue normally according to sources familiar.
Other news out of Argentina for Thursday includes comments from Economy Minister Luis Caputo yesterday that made mention of a $277 million port project on the Parana River that would store fertilizers, iron ore, steel, grains, and fuels. The plan comes as part of President Javier Milei's broader investment tax break package, known as RIGI, which has surpassed $24 billion in new infrastructure projects.
A NASS official said on Wednesday that the USDA is collecting survey-based data for its upcoming WASDE release on November 14th, despite the ongoing government shutdown. In an email to Reuters, the official said NASS was using normal collection procedures for both farmer surveys and field samples. Last year the USDA surveyed roughly 5,480 farmers for the November crop production report.
A Chinese agribusiness association reported on Thursday that COFCO, the country's state-owned grain buyer, held a soybean procurement signing ceremony earlier in the day, but did not give details on the amount purchased or who the seller was. The report was made at the US-China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum, which is taking place in Shanghai as part of the China International Import Expo.
Staying on the subject of US-China trade, at the same expo in China this week, chairman of the US Grains and BioProducts Council Mark Wilson said that a shipment of sorghum had been loaded and shipped to China over the past week, but he added that he did not have details on the size of the shipment. Added Wilson, "Before, 95% of the US sorghum export market came from the US came to China, so we need to get that going again. That's what I hope happens."
Lastly on the subject, there seems to be ongoing confusion regarding the quantity of the alleged Chinese wheat purchases that occurred in recent days, with cash traders on Thursday indicating that China had booked two cargoes of US wheat, one soft white wheat and one spring wheat, totaling just 120,000 MTs. The report comes after rumors on Wednesday had the purchase amount slotted somewhere in the 250k-500k MT ballpark. Data shows China imported 1.9 MMTs of US wheat in 2024, which accounted for roughly 17% of its total imports, but that figure has fallen more than 70% through the first nine months of 2025.

EXPORT NEWS:

Be safe!

Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com