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Trump's Trade Demands Go Beyond Tariffs05/05 06:16
The Trump administration says the sweeping tariffs it unveiled April 2, then
postponed for 90 days, have a simple goal: Force other countries to drop their
trade barriers to U.S. goods.
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The Trump administration says the sweeping
tariffs it unveiled April 2, then postponed for 90 days, have a simple goal:
Force other countries to drop their trade barriers to U.S. goods.
Yet President Donald Trump's definition of trade barriers includes a slew of
issues well beyond the tariffs other countries impose on the U.S., including
some areas not normally associated with trade disputes. Those include
agricultural safety requirements, tax systems, currency exchange rates, product
standards, legal requirements, and red tape at the border.
He's given countries three months to come up with concessions before tariffs
ranging from 10% to more than 50% go into effect. Tariffs on China are already
in effect.
On many issues it will be difficult, or in some cases impossible, for many
countries to make a deal and lower their tariff rates.
In addition, many trade officials from targeted countries say privately that
it isn't always clear what the Trump administration wants from them in the
negotiations.
Vice President JD Vance announced that India has agreed to the terms of
trade talks with the United States, but other countries are still trying to set
the contours for any negotiations. The White House has highlighted conflicting
goals for its import taxes: It's seeking to raise revenues and bring
manufacturing back to the U.S., but it also wants greater access to foreign
markets and massive changes to other nations' tax and regulatory policies.
Here are several non-tariff areas the administration is targeting:
CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES
Trump has accused Germany, China and Japan of "global freeloading" by -- in
his view -- devaluing their currencies to make their exports cheaper.
The European Central bank has been cutting interest rates to support growth.
That could also weaken the euro, which has strengthened sharply against the
dollar since Trump took office. The ECB says it doesn't target the exchange
rate.
In Japan's case, the Bank of Japan has been gradually raising rates anyway
after keeping them at zero or in negative territory for years, which should
drive the yen up against the dollar. The U.S. dollar has fallen recently to
140-yen levels, down from about 160 yen last summer. Shrikant Kale, a
strategist at Jefferies, believes the dollar will fall to 120 yen over the next
18 months.
FARM PRODUCTS
Agricultural safeguards against importing pests or health hazards have been
a sticking point with U.S. trade partners for years. They include Japan's
restrictions on rice and potato imports, the EU's ban on hormone-treated beef
or chlorine-disinfected chickens and Korea's ban on beef from cows more than 30
months old.
Yet changes face stiff political resistance from voters and farm lobbies in
those countries.
For years, U.S. potato growers have sought access to Japan's potential $150
million market for table potatoes. Japan has engaged in talks but taken years
simply to supply a list of concerns to U.S. negotiators. The delay is "pure
politics," intended to protect domestic growers, says National Potato Council
CEO Kam Quarles. If Japanese politicians perceive the pain from Trump's tariffs
might be worse than from their own potato growers, "that makes it more likely
to make a deal," Quarles said.
But "if they perceive the pain domestically will be worse than the Trump
administration can bring to them ... we're going to be stuck where we are."
Korea's beef restrictions started as a measure to keep out bovine spongiform
encephalopathy, or mad cow disease. The 30-month rule has been maintained in
the wake of mass protests in 2008, even as the U.S. has become the largest beef
exporter to Korea.
"It's still politically controversial because of the scar at the time in
2008. I think the government will be very cautious," said Jaemin Lee, professor
of law at Seoul National University and an expert on trade issues.
TAXATION
Trump has railed against value-added tax as a burden to U.S. companies,
although economists say this kind of tax is trade-neutral because it applies
equally to imports and exports. Value-added tax, or VAT, is paid by the end
purchaser at the cash register but differs from sales taxes in that it is
calculated at each stage of the production process.
Trump's view could mean higher tariffs for Europe, where individual
countries levy VAT of 20% or more depending on the type of good, and for the
more than 170 countries that use this kind of tax system. The U.S. is an
outlier in that it doesn't use VAT; instead, individual states levy sales taxes.
There's little chance countries will change their tax systems for Trump. The
EU for one has said VAT is off the table.
"The domestic taxation system has not been a conventional topic in trade
negotiation because domestic taxation is directly related to national
sovereignty or the domestic economic regime," trade expert Lee said. "It's very
hard to understand why VAT has become an important topic in the trade
discussion."
PRODUCT STANDARDS
U.S. officials have complained about Japan's non-recognition of U.S vehicle
safety standards and its different testing procedures for car equipment.
Japan also provides subsidies for the Japanese-designed ChaDeMo plug
standard for electric cars, requiring foreign makers to use an outdated
technology if they want the subsidy.
BUREAUCRACY
Concerns about excessive or baffling bureaucratic procedures to get goods
into a country are mentioned repeatedly in the administration's latest trade
assessment. The U.S. has complained about expensive delays getting permission
to export seafood to Japan. Meanwhile, Japan requires wheat imports to be sold
to a government entity and has "highly regulated and intransparent" quota
system that keeps rice imports from the U.S. to a minimum.
Most of these issues are years old, raising questions about whether 90 days
is enough to make a deal over them.
U.S. pharmaceutical companies have complained about Korea's system for drug
imports, while automakers say environmental equipment standards are unclear and
expose only importers to criminal penalties in case of violations.
BUY AMERICAN
Analysts say that despite the long list of non-tariff issues, the
administration's main focus may lie elsewhere: on Trump's desire to reduce
trade deficits, cases where a country sells more to the U.S. than it buys.
And the solution may be other countries buying more U.S. products, from
energy to soybeans, and builingd more plants in the U.S.
U.S. energy is already a major export to Europe. Trump has mentioned a
figure of $350 billion for potential EU gas imports. The EU does need imported
gas. But Trump's figure would be a stretch given that last year's exports of
liquefied natural gas to the EU were around $13 billon, and that Europe is
seeking to reduce its use of fossil fuels over the longer term.
THE HEART OF THE MATTER?
Discussions about non-tariff issues may simply be leverage to underpin
Trump's stiff tariff levels.
"It's just a thing that's there to justify my tariffs," said Tobias Gehrke,
senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations.
While lower level trade officials and industry representatives are acutely
aware of non-tariff issues like agricultural safety, "Trump and his cabinet...
don't really care about chlorinated chicken regulations in Europe and food
standards," Gehrke said. "They have much bigger thinking."
"They want to have European companies significantly move production to
America... and to export from America to Europe. That would change the trade
balance."
"And if that's the main logic, then there's no real deal to be had on
non-tariff barriers."
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