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Monday, May 5, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn -3.50 old & -2.50 new.
Beans -4.25 old & -3 new. Wheat -3.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Happy Cinco De Mayo. New week at the Chicago Board of Trade has started lower across most markets this morning, with traders continuing to position for the May WASDE report that will be released one week from today. In the meantime, price action looks to remain a product of Midwest planting progress and whether or not any new trade deals are announced, with the prior expected to see another sizeable jump in this afternoon's weekly update, and there being little new of note on the latter. Like we talked about several times the back half of April, the markets need a new fundamental spark to move prices in one direction or the other, and without one, choppy/sideways trading looks to remain the most plausible course of action in the short term. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 60-70 points. Outside markets are trading lower, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 290 points, and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is down 50 points, and the NASDAQ is down 220 points. Crude oil futures gapped lower last night and are more than $2/bbl off their lows as of this writing. Gold futures are up $70-80/oz.
Crude Oil is down $0.77 at $57.52
US Dollar is down at $99.577
Global Equities: Japan +0.3%, China +1.7%, and Europe -0.4%
Dow futures are down 261 points at 41,166
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -1.0% and Wheat -1.8%
WEATHER:
- Weekend weather over the past 72 hours was fairly benign across a bulk of the Corn Belt, with additional rains across the mid-south and south-eastern Midwest generally not accompanied by an abundance of severe weather; storm reports for the past 3 days from the SPC were busiest on Friday, and included mostly just wind and hail reports, while there was limited severe weather activity throughout the country on Sunday. Precip data for the weekend shows the heaviest rainfall totals of 2-4" falling through the already wet areas of AL/TN/KY, while other areas in the south/southeast saw a lighter 0.1-1".
- For this week, there wasn't a lot of forecast change over the weekend, with models still in good agreement on high pressure ridging keeping precip largely absent from the central and northern Corn Belt over the next 5-10 days, while the Gulf moisture pump keeps the south-central US and areas along the Gulf Coast extremely wet at the same time. Flooding/river issues will potentially be a concern in/around the Delta region, which could impact shipping on the lower Miss.
- Otherwise, week two forecast maps, which now get into the back third of May, still show the bulk of the Midwest with a drier bias coming out of the weekend but have added moisture to the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies that was not seen last week. On the temperature side, models remain in good agreement on cut-off lows allowing the southern US and parts of the southeast to remain on the cooler side for another few days this week and into next, but then still show a warmer-than-average bias for most all the country, especially the east, May 15th-20th.
- Briefly touching on the global side of things, the EU model's 10-day precip outlook trended marginally wetter in northern China over the weekend but still sees pockets of dryness here, while there was little change for Ukraine/the Black Sea region/eastern Europe. And in South America, it appears Brazil's monsoon season is coming to an end, while heavy rains are expected to impact areas in the country's far south and into northeast Argentina over the next week or so.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- CFTC Commitment of Traders data from Friday afternoon showed funds are now net-long 71,329 contracts of corn (-41,476 on the week), net-long 38,202 contracts of soybeans (+7,135), and net-short 121,415 contracts of Chicago wheat (-31,485). This was the largest week of fund selling in the Chicago wheat market since December of 2017. In the soy products, funds are now net-short 98,227 contracts of meal (-24,716), and are net-long 63,387 contracts of soybean oil (+12,488).
- Private US ag group StoneX on Friday raised its estimates of both Brazil corn and soybean production in the current season. The group now sees soybean production at 168.4 mmt's compared to 167.5 mmt's previously, and they safrinha corn production at 104.3 mmt's, up from 101.6 mmt's previously. In comments, the group cited "robust" output in top producing state Mato Grosso as reason for the soy bump, and for corn, said that crop development in the key center-south part of the country had so far exceeded expectations.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House tomorrow following positive progress via telephone conversations in the past weeks since Canada's election. According to sources familiar, the meeting is expected to focus on setting the tone for future discussions regarding tariffs, energy, and cross-border supply chains among other things.
- Ukraine's state meteorologists said on Monday that unseasonably long frosts followed by warm/dry weather in the month of April had had a negative impact on the early development of the country's spring crops; forecasters said, "Dry weather with low relative air humidity for spring and frosts were also unfavorable for the initial development of early spring crops." Ukraine's farm ministry last week said that farmers had planted 3.2 million hectares of spring crops so far as of May 2nd.
- According to the USDA, federally inspected pork production in the week ending May 3rd totaled 540 mil lbs, which was up just over 2% compared to the week prior; beef production at 490 mil lbs was up less than 1% on the week. For the year, total pork production is running 2% behind last year, while beef production is down 2.4%.
- Sources familiar with the situation say stocks of Malaysian palm oil in the month of April likely saw their biggest monthly increase since late-summer 2023 as weather normalized and yields began improving. The data, which is scheduled to be released next week on May 13th, is expected to show stocks for the month increasing nearly 15% from the March figure to 1.79 million tons, which would be a new five-month high. The report is also expected to show exports from the country similarly increasing more than 10% from March to 1.13 million tons.
- The financial world this week, following what is expected to be a quieter day on Monday due to holidays in several European and Asian countries, will have its attention on a pair of central bank policy decisions, both from the US Federal Reserve (Wednesday) and from the Bank of England (Thursday). President Trump has continued to press US Fed chair Jerome Powell in recent days about cutting rates, but the trade does not see this pressure as having much of any effect so far, as there is a nearly 97% chance this morning that rates are held unchanged again later this week.
- Other news of note from the weekend included a Saturday report that Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffet would be stepping down from his position at the end of this year after more than 60 years atop the conglomerate. A tariff-related story is President Trump imposed trade duties of 100% on films produced overseas, saying the American film industry was quickly dying due to incentives in other countries.
EXPORT NEWS:
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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