Closing Markets: Corn: +13.50 old & +13 new.
Beans: +28.25 old & new. Wheat: +45.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
If the environment in the ag space wasn't bullish enough already, it seemingly got ratcheted up another notch on Wednesday, with wheat futures finishing the session limit-up and dragging most of the rest of the space to new contract highs along with it. News-wise, it's more of the same in terms of factors driving prices, but it was the Black Sea that stole attention away from crop prospects and the Middle East throughout the day at mid-week.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures finished Wednesday higher, lifted in part by strength in the wheat market and developments in the Black Sea region but also on what seems to be ongoing money flow to the long side of the market based on falling crop prospects and a tightening balance sheet. The underlying market fundamentals are still undoubtedly bullish, but we are going to continue to stress risk management from a marketing standpoint, and would again remind that futures are already more than a dollar off the summer lows. We've said it before and will say it again - it's called a futures market for a reason, and at least some part of the rally seen since late-June had to do with declining production prospects. At some point, the market is going to shift focus elsewhere, as its never traded the same headlines forever.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures closed higher on Wednesday, scoring new contract highs on underlying strength in the rest of the market while the products traded mixed. Selling in the bean oil market this week has been tied to both risk-off sentient in the world energy markets and also looming SRE decisions from the EPA that spooked some of the faster moving traders earlier this week. Otherwise, bullish sentiment has largely lived in the grain markets, with the soybean crop size being more of a limiting factor to the overall fundamentals.
Wheat Summary-
The wheat market was the star of the show on Wednesday, finishing limiting up in the Chicago market and at its highest level in more than three years on what seems to be another step in the wrong direction in terms of discussions between Russia and Ukraine. We aren't arguing today's price move, but are curious as to why it took today's announcement for the market to react the way it did. In our opinion, Putin made it quite clear multiple times in the last few weeks that he had no interest in negotiating with Ukraine, yet the market continued to give credence to headlines that some sort of talks were going to occur despite it being highly unlikely. Now, Russia says they're going to increase attacks (they've been lobbing missiles nightly for weeks) and the market sees it as reason to trade limit-up. If anything, we see today's price move as verifying claims made by us and a plethora of other newswires that the market had failed in recent weeks to sufficiently price in what was actually going on, and would not be surprised to see additional upside action in the days ahead. Remember, when this war started more than four years ago now, wheat futures quickly shot to north of $14/bu, meaning there seemingly still exists plenty of room to run on the upside.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.40+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
The European model rain forecast continues to be wetter than that of the GFS through the end of the week and into the weekend for the northern and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt, but both have maintained general dryness elsewhere, with little rainfall expected in central and southern areas over the next five days.
Temperatures, though still more mild than not, look to continue warming into and through the weekend for much of the Midwest as high pressure meanders back north and east, though there still doesn't look to be any sort prolonged extreme heat in today's model runs.
Model agreement in the extended period has fallen apart overnight, with the EU model now notably wetter throughout the central and eastern parts of the US in the period than the GFS is. As we get into September, its worth noting at some point that moisture is going to be more of a hurt than a help, as it will switch from boosting production to delaying harvest.
Temperature forecasts in the extended period are little changed from Tuesday, with the eastward movement of high pressure ridging generally keeping this part of the country on the warmer side of average into the second week of September.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
