Closing Markets: Corn: -1.75.
Beans:-1.75. Wheat: -4.75.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
It was an uneventful day of trade across the CBOT on Monday, with markets struggling to find direction on day one of what appears likely to be a quiet Thanksgiving week of trade before closing mixed/lower. Like we mentioned this morning, the wheat market seemed to pace what downward momentum there was throughout the day today on ideas that progress was being made on an end to the war in Ukraine, but there wasn't much of any excitement in the move and the space was largely quiet otherwise. Even another announced soybean sale to China wasn't enough to cause a pop in excitement, which we would say doesn't bode well for activity the rest of the week.
Corn Summary-
More of the same in the corn market to start the new week on Monday, as futures prices drifted quietly lower on what continues to be little to nothing new fundamentally. Aside from spill-over price action out of the US-China soybean situation, corn market fundamentals that will key market direction consist largely of two buckets at this point: The first is exports, which have been at record levels to this point in the year but are extremely counter-seasonal and will be hard-pressed to get much better from here. Then there's production, which won't see another update until January in the US and won't become much of a talking point in South America until after bean harvest is done and safrinha planting gets started. With both of these items more or less in limbo, price action is likely to stay choppy/sideways, with there being some sort of spark needed elsewhere to move values in either direction.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures saw mixed trade to start the week on Monday, with front months seeing selling pressure while the deferred contracts were able to close higher. Ongoing dialogue between Trump and Xi seems to be a positive on the margin, but like we mention above, that there is now confirmation that a deal has not been signed would seem to be anything but positive in our opinion. Otherwise, another day has come and gone with nothing new in the way of biofuel news and South American weather forecasts continue to be almost entirely non-threatening, which are the other two fundamental price movers on the bean side. Headline risk remains elevated, but without something new on either of these two fronts, we would see the path of least resistance from here on old crop futures as down as traders get a better idea on what China's buying might be into spring.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw bigger trading ranges than the corn market did on Monday, but were otherwise similarly quiet as there weren't a lot of additional headlines on the war situation throughout the day. We've said all along than an end to the war should be a bearish development strictly from a logistics standpoint, but with world values already depressed on good crops out of a number of the world's major growers, we're just not sure how much additional downside should be expected from here beyond the lows made last month.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures: up 80-90 cents/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Weather forecasts for this week look to keep the active pattern in place, with a low pressure system working across the southern US early this week, providing additional rainfall to Gulf states and other states in the mid-south, with another system then expected to drop snowfall across the northern Midwest then Tuesday into Wednesday. The end of the week then sees a larger system working through the central Midwest, with additional rain and snow expected.
Midwest temperatures are expected to stay on the warmer side of average through the day tomorrow, before high pressure ridging in the northern Atlantic pushes cooler air into the eastern part of the US by the end of the week and into the weekend.
Precip anomaly maps for the first week of December are wetter again this afternoon throughout most all of the US besides the PNW, where the presence of high pressure ridging in the Pacific is keeping moisture from entering this area. The models are wettest in the period through the southern Midwest and through an area roughly around the lower Mississippi River, as flow will come across the Rockies and then get shunned back north due to high pressure in the Atlantic.
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Beyond this weekend, both the 5-10 and 10-15 day temperature forecasts this afternoon show cooler air from the north working into almost the whole of the US, as temperatures through the first third of December look to be well below normal for especially the north-central US, but really the whole of the US in general.
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
