Closing Markets: Corn: -0.50 old & +0.75 new.
Beans: +4 old & +0.75 new. Wheat: -2.50 old & -3.50 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Happy Friday. Traders saw a quiet trading session across the ag space to wrap up the week this week, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and there continues to be little new to speak of in terms of corn or soybean news aside from weather and planting progress. We've talked about it all week, but the CBOT is currently a precarious concoction of the Iran war, a new northern hemisphere growing season, and a looming China meeting that has produced choppy/sideways trade that we imagine makes its way at least into next week. Markets don't usually like uncertainty, and today, a substantial amount of it exists.
Corn Summary-
The corn market closed on either side of unchanged to end what will be the last full week of trade for the month of April, as news continued to be slow amid steady planting progress and ongoing developments in Iran. Lingering in the background of the corn market is dryness concerns for the safrinha crop throughout central Brazil, and in our opinion outside of the Middle East, this has been the main supportive feature in the market this week. However, we would again reiterate that even if Brazil loses a few million tons, these cuts are going to be more than likely offset by increases in Argentina, where the USDA continues to presumably much too low. The weather issue in Brazil is not dire and will not on its own be enough to produce a lasting board rally should planting pace remain ahead of average and Midwest weather stay favorable.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex closed Friday quietly higher, with all three members finishing the day closer to their highs than not amid generally steady buying into this afternoon's closing bell. Bean oil trade continues to be tied to world energy markets and has remained the leader in the complex, and until things calm down in the Middle East or something happens on the China front, we're not sure how quick this changes. The job of the bean oil market right now is to find a price level that encourages imports into the US, as the domestic biofuel industry will not have enough soybean oil to supply its needs for the rest of the year.
Wheat Summary-
Spread activity between the KC and Chicago wheat markets was once again a feature of Friday's trade, with both finishing the week lower but the KC giving back more of yesterday's gains than Chicago did. We talked about it fairly in depth previously this week, but the stark differences in weather between western KS and eastern KS have produced widely varying crop estimates that traders are attempting to figure out what to make of, and this has led to wild swings in spread prices the last couple days. There has no doubt been damage done due to lack of rainfall in areas, but the big question remains is this going to be a western Kansas problem or a US/world problem? Unfortunately for those in the region, our lean today is towards the prior.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $1.00/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Weekend weather looks to feature additional rainfall through the southeastern US through the day today and into tonight, while the Midwest sees drier conditions for a couple days following storms the last 24+ hours. This dry spell likely doesn't last though, with the models in agreement on another round of widespread moisture then for much of the eastern half of the US Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday next week.
Daytime highs will generally continue to stay slightly warmer than normal through the weekend and the first part of next week across the eastern half of the country, while cooler Canadian air stays mostly north and west of the Corn Belt. This cooler air is seen working east then by the back half of next week, but our confidence in this outlook is not overly high, with the forecast needing monitoring over the next couple days.
Today's EU model run trended drier in the week two period across a lot of the central US, while the GFS also shifted drier but is more mixed in its precip outlook than the EU is. Western high pressure ridging moving east into the middle and back half of May could produce some dryness concerns in another few weeks, but this forecast is far from a given and will need to be monitored over the coming weeks.
Argentina sees very minimal rainfall chances through the weekend and into the first part of next week, but otherwise dryness looks to remain the theme both here and in Brazil, as rains stay more in the middle of the two countries, which is not a major ag area. More concerning is that the models see little sign of this pattern changing at this point into the 9th of May, which if it verifies, could lead to a reduction in the safrinha corn crop.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
