Closing Markets: Corn: -9.50 old & -8.75 new.
Beans: -27.25 old & new. Wheat: -1.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Choppy trade in the corn and soybean markets continued on Wednesday, as turn-around-Tuesday was a one-day event and the space saw another heavy round of selling on ongoing long liquidation based on a less threatening forecast into August than was seen last week. Geopolitical risks remain ongoing, but focus by the funds and some of the faster moving traders has seemingly shifted back to US weather this week, and the changing forecasts have produced a considerable amount of volatility across the space.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures have seen nearly the same trading range for three straight days now this week, with prices back in the red on Wednesday on what was a continually improving forecast for the northwestern Corn Belt and ongoing long liquidation that was developed amid a risk-on attitude last week. The forecasts are undoubtedly better than they were 10 days, but the question we would ask is how much does this impact the yield situation? Yes, rains in the northwest will be beneficial, but a 1-2 inch rain isn't likely to add 3 or 4 bushels back onto the national average yield. There is a lot of production conversation still to have over the next month to six weeks, and this, along with ongoing supply risks in the Black Sea region, means volatility likely isn't going anywhere in the short term.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex led the space lower on Wednesday, as ongoing long liquidation based on a marginally better 10-day forecast drove all three markets to relatively sharp losses. With demand still seen as solid into the fall season, both flat price action and spread action turned into a bit of a head-scratcher throughout the day today, again illustrating just how much money flow is influencing markets. Run-to-run forecast changes have made the complex rather difficult to trade this week, and we unfortunately don't have a great answer as to when this might end. We talk about it below in more detail, but new crop bean support via the old sideways run from June is another 30 or 40 cents down from where the market closed today, while bean oil could slide another 3-4 cents without doing a lot of damage on its chart. We don't know that these lower levels will be tested, but also wouldn't rule it out and are simply offering a word of caution to would-be bottom pickers; volatility and violent price swings probably aren't going to disappear real soon.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures traded lower on Wednesday, but the selling wasn't quite to the extent of the other markets in the space as there aren't as many longs to liquidate here as elsewhere. On the margin, the wheat market also likely has more war risk premium still built in via happenings between Russia and Ukraine, that could keep prices more supported relative to the others. Shipping capacity in the Black Sea region, along with affected world export flows as a result, continue to be the number one talking point in the wheat market, and this likely doesn't change in the short term.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $5.75+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
A continually less threatening forecast for the Corn Belt had much of the trade's attention on Wednesday, as forecasts continue to trend wetter for the northwestern part of the area which currently has some of the largest moisture deficits. Exactly where the heaviest rains fall is going to continue to be a question, but there remains fair model agreement today on good rainfall totals coming at the end of the week.
Temperature forecasts into the weekend have continued to also trend cooler for the eastern/east-central part of the country, while heat gets pushed further to the west into the weekend and the first part of next week.
While cooler short-term, extended range temperature forecasts have continued to show heat returning to most of the Midwest, especially the southern part of the region, into the middle of the month, though our confidence in the outlook is still not high. Run-to-run variability has remained common, and the Climate Prediction Center's outlooks for the period are notably different than the model ensemble runs.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
