Closing Markets: Corn: +9 old & +8 new.
Beans: +13.50 old & new. Wheat: +3.75.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
After seeing corrective action lower throughout most of the overnight session and into the early part of the day session, ag markets closed higher on Tuesday, as crop size considerations and upward technical momentum continue to drive a lot of the buying seen the last two days. It was a slow news day for the most part otherwise, with a lot of noise and chatter still surrounding the markets but there being little in terms of new developments regarding any of the several topics of interest present this week.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures opened the door for some new money to come into the space first last night before again cruising out to new highs during the day session as traders continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities amid last week's Pro Farmer findings and what has been a regular debate regarding just how the tight the balance sheet might get this fall. Obviously the conversation is largely predicated on production and crop size, but if supply falls far enough, there's going to be an ensuing demand discussion that will need to be had also. Simple supply and demand rules say the job of the market is to find the price at which supply matches demand, and this is exactly what corn futures have been attempting to do since the sharply lower production figure was put on the table last week. We are bullish the market given the developments over the last week, but should this run continue, we would also advise at some point rewarding a rally that has worked more than a dollar off the summer lows, whether futures reach $6 or not.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished higher Tuesday after spending most of the overnight session largely in the red again, with selling in the bean oil seemingly reaching a level that sparked some sort of bargain buying amid what continue to be bullish market fundamentals generally regardless of the expected EPA ruling this week. The sentiment then spread throughout the rest of the space, allowing both the beans and meal to also finish the day higher though there wasn't an abundance of new news here either. The bullish crop story in the corn just isn't there in the soybeans, at least from a tour/speculation standpoint, and this has caused the market to hit pause just below the old summer highs. For a breakthrough to happen, there needs to be some sort of confirmation that yields aren't near last year's record or that El Niño is going to have a significant negative impact on production in South America, and neither of those things are likely to occur in the next several days.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed higher on Tuesday but again spent a lot of the day session chopping around near unchanged, as price action throughout the day was largely rinse and repeat from Monday. We talked about it to start the week, but discussion in the wheat market continues to be almost entirely centered on the Black Sea and developments between Russia and Ukraine, and we simply don't know when this changes. AgResource Co. reported at mid-day that a US military aircraft had landed in Moscow, indicating some sort of potential progress towards negotiations, but as far as we can tell, the two sides remain extremely far apart on any sort of agreement. It goes without saying that should such an agreement be reached, there's obviously a sizeable amount of war premium that exists that we assume would quickly get extracted, but have no inkling as to when this might occur. Wars don't go on forever, but the question today is how long does the current situation proceed before it has enough impact on the global food situation that an outside party intervenes.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $3.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
The mid-day GFS run continues to be wetter than the EU solution in the west and northwest, but there is little of note in the forecast discussion otherwise for Tuesday. Precip into the weekend for most areas will be limited, while temperatures stay generally mild into the weekend before warming slightly into the first part of next week.
While wetter short term, the GFS model is drier then in the extended period than the EU model, especially throughout the Dakotas and other parts of the northwestern Corn Belt that have been hit the hardest by drought this summer. The CPC outlook for the period is also more in line with the EU model in staying wet across the north and the northwest.
Lingering high pressure across the southern US is keeping the temperature outlook in the extended period warmer, with the models in decent agreement on daytime highs into the second week of September being slightly warmer than normal but still not overly extreme across most all of the Midwest and Corn Belt.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
