Closing Markets: Corn: +1.75 old & +2.25 new.
Beans: +8.75 old & new. Wheat: +8 old & +6.75 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Higher closes were had in the ag space on Tuesday, as buying in the soybean oil market was able to lift the entire sector to a green finish this afternoon. With the current ceasefire agreement between the US/Israel and Iran set to expire in less than 24 hours, trader attention is again almost entirely on headlines and developments related to the Middle East, which we assume likely keys price direction more than anything else tonight and into tomorrow morning.
Corn Summary-
The corn market closed quietly higher on Tuesday, as strength in the rest of the space kept values above unchanged throughout the day amid little happening elsewhere Like last week, there isn't a ton out of the ordinary in regards to early-season planting progress, and we see a good mix of rain and sunshine ahead allowing things to continue to progress normally in the short term. Otherwise, we see an apparently ever-growing Argentine crop as lingering in the background, with new private estimates again today making it more and more likely that the USDA is going to have to adjust their production figure for the country significantly higher at some point between now and the end of summer.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished Tuesday mostly in the green, led to the upside by the previously mentioned strength in the bean oil market that caused spec buying to emerge throughout the morning. While the algorithms took bullishness in the oil markets as a sign to buy today, we would caution that a potential bearish outcome of the resumption of the war in Iran would be that it potentially delays President Trump's trip to China even further. While this has been pushed to the back burner a bit over the last month, it is worth noting that every week that goes by without a meeting at this point is another week China isn't buying beans from us, which makes the current USDA export forecast more and more difficult to achieve. Bean oil is holding the complex up for now, but we see record planting pace and an ongoing lack of progress with Chinese as potential bearish headwinds in the future.
Wheat Summary-
The wheat market saw two-sided trade on Tuesday before finishing the session higher, as lower trade early in the morning gave way to buying throughout the day session and into the close. Focus in the short term is on frost potential for parts of KS and NE over the next week, which amid already tumbling condition ratings, would likely be price positive should it occur. Notable is the fact that this is the first spot close above $6 in nearly a month, and also that this is the sixth higher close for May futures in the last seven sessions.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $4.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Mid-day weather forecasts across the already wet central and northern Midwest are wetter into the first of May this afternoon than the morning runs, while also still seeing rains across some of the drier areas of the southeast and Delta area in the same period. Totals in a band from IA/MO to IN/MI look to range from 2-4" over the next 10 days with some locally heavier amounts possible.
Notable still in the forecast though is a lack of rainfall for the southern Plains and the southwestern wheat belt, which looks to remain dry into the end of the month aside for some light/scattered showers through parts of western KS and OK.
Models in the extended period are keeping the pattern generally active, but are in agreement on the southeastern US and the East Coast being the wettest parts of the country into and through the first week of May. The Midwest looks to see a more mixed pattern, with thunderstorm activity likely to keep rainfall amounts/locations variable.
Models are seeing a notable pocket of cooler air in the 5-10 day forecast for the northern part of the US and into Canada, with cooler air then lingering through a lot of the central US in the 10-15 day period also. The EU is colder this afternoon than the GFS is, but the two are in decent agreement on timing and the overall pattern.
A lot of both Brazil and Argentina will remain dry through the back half of the week and into the weekend, while rains look to continue through the border region between the two countries and into Paraguay. The models have rains possible for central Argentina then early next week, but otherwise this drier pattern looks to mostly remain in place for the two into the first part of May.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
