Closing Markets: Corn: +6 old & +6.25 new.
Beans: +23.50 old & new. Wheat: +0.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Monday ag trade was mostly higher to get the week started, driven in large part by new money flow into the space on what was an overly wet weekend across a lot of the country's mid-section and also on a friendly monthly crush update from the folks over at NOPA. We've been talking about the supportive geopolitical fundamentals for weeks now, but today's buying was all about crops in the US, with the Pro Farmer Crop Tour underway and fields from Iowa to Ohio under variable amounts of water after one of the wettest starts to August on record. Fundamentals lean supportive until more is known for fact about US crop sizes.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures started the week higher on Monday, trading above last week's highs and getting within spitting distance of the highs made in July on a new influx of money based on a deluge of moisture across a lot of the Corn Belt over the weekend and as social media-posted yield results from day one of the Pro Farmer crop tour were down notably from last year. The fundamental backdrop was already supportive via happenings in the Black Sea region and what looks to be restricted global grain flows as a result, but the new weather developments across the Midwest the last several days on top of last week's friendly WASDE report have added new fuel to the fire and brought new buying to the space to get this week started.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was higher to start the new week on Monday, with buying early in the day based on crop prospects and weekend Midwest weather, and then later in the day on what was a rather bullish monthly crush report from NOPA for the bean oil market. Like corn, the buying drove futures above last week's highs, with the next real point of resistance now coming in the form of the summer highs that are up in the mid-12's. We haven't talked about it much, but there's a looming summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi in D.C. in a little over a month and on top of everything else, its our assumption that traders will want to be long the complex going into that meeting. Following heavy rains over the weekend, its also expected that crop conditions will continue falling in this afternoon's update, further adding to the supportive price backdrop.
Wheat Summary-
Chicago wheat futures finished Monday near unchanged to get the week started, trading above last week's high early Sunday evening but then working lower throughout much of the day as traders await new developments in the Black Sea and as there was little fundamentally new to the space otherwise. Export estimates out of both Russia and Ukraine are falling on a near daily basis, but it remains true at this point that nobody is quite sure how long the current situation is expected to last or just how many bushels are going to be able to be shipped into 2027. The situation is undoubtedly supportive, but like we've talked about before, the market isn't going to go straight up on the same news and headlines every single day.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up around $2.00/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Following several days of wet and stormy weather across a lot of the Corn Belt, the pattern looks to shift a bit this week as Gulf moisture flow lessens and the overall upper air pattern shifts to more out of the northwest. There will be storm chances across the central US amid the sharply divided temperature situation, but it looks to be a calmer week overall.
Elsewhere, the southern US high pressure ridge looks to retrograde west just a bit this week, but otherwise remains present and is going to keep much of the south and southwest in a well above average temperature pattern. Meanwhile, the moisture and storms across the central US keep cooler air in place throughout much of the Midwest.
Two week forecasts this afternoon are much the same as last week's runs, with the models still trying to keep much of the eastern half of the US on the drier side of normal while the west stays slightly wetter than normal. Where high pressure lives in the south into the month of September will likely determine where moisture falls across the central part of the country, and will also likely keep TX and the surrounding states dry.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
