Closing Markets: Corn: +5.50 old & +6.50 new.
Beans: +9.75 old & +5.50 new. Wheat: +4.50.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag futures in Chicago built on their strong early-week gains Tuesday, finishing higher and above yesterday's highs on what is likely a combination of weather-risk buying, new month/quarter/half money flows, and optimism surrounding what most are assuming were new purchases by the Chinese despite there being no confirmation of such business on today's daily sales wire. A mid-day pop in the oil market via new attacks by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz also didn't hurt the rally effort, giving most all of the day's input some kind of a bullish lean.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed higher for a second straight session this week, knocking out the highs made yesterday and reaching up into retracement territory from the May/June slide as less-than-ideal weather forecasts for pollination and the prospects for Chinese buying have led to what few shorts were left likely covering the last of those positions the last couple days. Between the heat in Europe and the heat that is expected across the central US that is expected into the back half of July, there is little doubt some sort of supply loss has occurred, the question is just how much. Historically, WASDE doesn't make yield adjustments in the July update unless something dire is going on (2012), which means we likely don't get any insight into the answer to this question for at least another four-five weeks.
Soybean Summary-
After trading into the red briefly this morning, soybean futures and the complex as a whole closed higher for a second straight day on Tuesday, as the excitement surrounding new Chinese bean purchases has yet to subside. Pace analysis would argue that even if the most recent purchase rumors were true, Chinese buyers are still well behind schedule in regards to reaching 25 MMTs by the end of the year, though you wouldn't know it by the way the markets have reacted to new business this week. Keep in mind, it's not just a question of whether or not China buys, but more of is there buying already baked into current exports, and thereby ending stocks? If the answer is no and China begins to look like they're going to catch up on that 25 MMTs, a tightening of the balance sheet likely leads to another push above $12 futures. That said, yes we are aware the market is close to this already, but we're also aware today's close in new crop futures is nearly 75 cents off the lows made just last week; a fair amount of premium has already been put back in.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed higher Tuesday in what was largely another day of follow-the-leader with the other row crop markets, as news specific to the market outside of production talk in Europe remains almost non-existent. Yesterday's crop progress update for the US showed harvest has surpassed the 50% mark last week, which means harvest hedge pressure should begin to subside somewhat in the days ahead. Last week's bottom was likely some sort of short term low for the Chicago market.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude Oil Futures: up $3.00+/bbl
Weather Updates-
Models continue to be in poor agreement on rainfall this afternoon for the rest of the week, with the GFS notably wetter across the central Midwest in the period than the EU model is. The two are more aligned on the temperature side of things though, seeing warmer air move back into the central US by the middle of next week but keeping areas west of the Rockies comparatively warmer.
There is better agreement in the extended forecast, as the two models are generally on the same page in seeing a fairly large high pressure ridge set up over the central US that likely lasts into the back half of the month. There will be ridge-riding storms around the northern edge, but it will be difficult to predict exactly where these rains will fall. Net-soil moisture loss appears likely the next two weeks - the big question is just whether this is a good or a bad thing.
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
