Closing Markets: Corn: -9 old & -8.75 new.
Beans: -1 old & new. Wheat: +0.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Thursday ag trade was largely corrective after the run up seen on WASDE-Wednesday, with selling most active in the corn market but present throughout the space. Report data was obviously bullish, especially for the grain markets, the bump in acres adds supply potential that wasn't there previously and current crop estimates are far from disasters. A friendly report doesn't mean volatility is going to simply disappear, and in our opinion, with as many ongoing market factors as there still are, a sustained move in either direction is likely going to be difficult to come by.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed lower Thursday, giving back a little less than half of what they gained on Wednesday as traders realized they may have ran things a little too far too fast on a production number that got bigger than last month, not smaller. The drop in yield and cut to ending stocks were obviously both friendly to the market, but like we talked about yesterday, the balance sheet needing every bushel of production to satisfy current demand levels isn't necessarily a new development and is at least to some extent likely already priced in with spot futures more than 40 cents off the summer lows. There's a floor under the market, but to expect an instant rally back to $5 on front month futures is likely somewhat foolish in our opinion directly ahead of harvest. Yesterday's production figure is still the second highest ever if it comes to fruition, and that is not a small crop.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished Thursday mixed/mostly lower, though was quiet overall as the source of the selling seemed to be elsewhere and spilled into the complex via a lack of anything better to trade. Chinese demand has and likely will continue to be a bright spot, but rains falling across the heart of the Midwest during the critical month of August are going to make any sort of rally difficult in the short term. Like we talked about with corn, production at 4.519 bil bu would be the largest US crop ever produced, and while yields may not be at the very tip top, there is still going to be a lot of supply available in just another month or two.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures were quiet Thursday, closing lower but near unchanged as prices seemed to be caught in between selling in the corn market and what continues to be a supportive situation in the Black Sea region. We're beating a dead horse, but exportable capacity out of the region into the fall and winter months continues to be by far the most dominant feature in the market, and like we've said for days, this probably doesn't change in the short term amid little sign that any resolution to the situation is close at hand.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down around $2.00/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across much of the central Midwest through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with there little changed noted in the forecast this afternoon. Exact rainfall amounts and locations will continue to be hit or miss from a forecast standpoint, but most of the region from SD to OH will continue to see nearly daily storm chances into next week.
Question marks remain in regards to the extended forecast, as anomaly maps continue to show drier biases throughout the Midwest despite there not being a lot of evidence that the high pressure ridge aloft the southern US is going to move much. Temperature forecasts have cooler air lingering through the northeast into the end of the month, while heat stays centered on the west and the south.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
