Closing Markets: Corn: -1.25 old & +1.50 new.
Beans: +1.50 old & +4 new. Wheat: +9.
All TFG locations will be closed Monday, February 16th for Presidents’ Day!
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good thru August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
CBOT ag markets saw more mixed price action on Wednesday, with corn and soybean futures seeing some notable spread activity but not doing a lot in terms of flat price, while the wheat market traded to new highs for the week on what was likely the beginning rounds of position squaring ahead of the coming three day weekend. Yesterday's WASDE update produced little if anything for traders to sink their teeth into, which means price sentiment likely again has become a product of the debate between growing supplies in South America and demand prospects that are still relatively unknown at this point, especially on beans.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed mixed on Wednesday with the front months lower and the deferred months higher on what was a fairly active day in the spread markets on not a lot of new news again. The rebound in ethanol production was a noted positive, but doesn't do a lot to alter pre-existing fundamentals and was somewhat seasonal following the cold snap that led to the reduced production the week prior. From a price standpoint, we continue to see a rally as being dependent on a loss of bushels in either Brazil or Argentina, and this doesn't seem overly likely today.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was mixed on Wednesday, with the beans and meal higher while oil traded lower on what ended being a reversal day to the downside after the market scored new highs early this morning. We talked about it yesterday, but until US planting and the acreage debate comes more into focus as we get into March, price direction is going to almost solely be a product of the debate on whether or not China is going to take the additional 8 MMTs rumored by Trump last week. We can't rule it out, but would just note that a lot of commercials in the industry are viewing this figure as doubtful, and think if there is additional business to be had, it will likely be closer to the tune of 3-4 MMTs and not 8. Even without the current 10% tariff from China, US beans are still some 50+ cents/bu more expensive than those out of Brazil, and unless the US is going to offer something concessionary to make up for this, we just have a hard time believing that China is going to make a significant amount of purchases at that big of a price discrepancy.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed higher on Wednesday on what was mostly a technical day of trade, with their being little to nothing in the way of headlines and as news generally continues to feature the same two or three stories that have circulated for weeks now. For one, there continues to be enough concern, whether warranted or not, over winterkill in Russia to keep funds from overly extending their short position. But at the same time, falling export values in Australia and Argentina are keeping a lid on the world market for the most part, which like we've talked about a lot in recent weeks/months, has produced the generally sideways/lower trade seen throughout most of the back half of 2025 and the first part of 2026.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $1.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Following light rains through the southeast this morning, models this afternoon are in good agreement on mostly warm/dry weather for the Midwest and eastern US the rest of the week this week before a bigger low pressure is still expected to work across the southeast and mid-south then over the weekend and into the early part of next week. This afternoon's GFS run sees totals ranging from a half inch to 2" generally, with the best totals seen through Arkansas.
There is good agreement across the models still this afternoon in the extended period on the Midwest and northern tier of the US trending wetter into the end of the month, while the temperature outlook is little changed again and still shows a warm east/cool west pattern generally persisting for at least another two weeks.
South American forecasts into next week are again little changed today, and continue to show improvements in soil moisture through the northern and central parts of Argentina into next week, before moisture works back south by the end of the week. Meanwhile, the models are also continuing to trend drier through the central part of Brazil over the next ten days while adding moisture into the far southern part of Brazil.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
