Closing Markets: Corn: +9.25 old & +9.50 new.
Beans: +13.50 old & +16.25 new. Wheat: +21.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Risk premium injection, while the big trading theme all week, seemed to hit a fever pitch on Wednesday, with most commodity markets seeing higher to sharply higher price action on what was almost entirely a continuation of the themes discussed on Monday and Tuesday. When this additional risk premium ends is a question we don't have a great answer for today, but would simply say that amid two ongoing wars, a plethora of weather issues both in the US and Europe, and an uptick in ag demand out of China, there is seemingly plenty of bullish fodder present today to at least the keep pullbacks to corrective events in the short term. That said, futures markets don't go one way forever and we would caution against chasing the upside too aggressively with the rally now already in its fourth week.
Corn Summary-
Won't spend a lot of time repeating comments made previously this week, as the corn market closed higher on Wednesday and scored new highs for the week but largely saw the same market inputs present as have been seen for several days now. We talk about the chart down below, but the only real new development today was a push above chart-based resistance by both old and new crop futures, which should theoretically spur additional farmer selling into the end of the week. Otherwise, it's shipping disruptions in the Black Sea, a rally in world energy values, a warm/dry weather forecast into August, and rumored Chinese interest in US corn values that are driving the market, and we have little new with any of those items to discuss today.
Soybean Summary-
Both the beans and the meal pushed to new highs for the year on Wednesday as bullish momentum throughout a whole host of commodity markets spilled over into the soy complex and drove values higher throughout the day. Like we talked about with corn, there was little if anything specifically new to the space throughout Wednesday, but its bullish sentiment surrounding all the reasons mentioned above that has firmly grasped the trade this week and has produced a fresh influx of capital. There is a group of traders/analysts that believes almost without a question of a doubt that China will make good on their 25 MMT purchase agreement before the end of the year, and there is another that is highly skeptical of such a development and has taken a "we'll believe it when we see it" approach to trading the situation; this, along with crop size, is one of the bigger questions present today, and will likely remain so into the end of summer and start of fall.
Wheat Summary-
Like the other markets, there was little new in wheat world on Wednesday, with Chicago futures cruising past the $7 level and scoring new contract highs, turning the charts downright bullish despite the market already rallying more than a dollar per bushel since the first of the month. Talk late in the day today had vessel owners all but halting nominations to either Russian or Ukrainian ports, which was the fundamental reason for the buying, but more importantly was the idea that fund traders were likely in the process of flipping from short too long. Otherwise, it was more of the same things discussed all week this week that made the rounds again today, with it still a going discussion as to just how much supply disruption is going to be caused short term.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $2.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Though cooler for the next several days, this afternoon's forecast runs continue to have limited precip for a lot of the Corn Belt into next week. There will be scattered storms across the western and southwestern areas into the end of the week this week and then more scattered storms in the north/northeast next week, but a fairly chunk of the region's midsection as well as most of the northwest see little to no rainfall potential into the first of August.
Extended forecasts are still featuring a return to warmer daytime highs across most all of the US into the first part of August, but have been non-committal for the most part in terms of rainfall, sticking to the same average to slightly below average anomaly forecast for most of the area that has been see all week. The CPC has expanded the severity of dryness across the northern Midwest, but has been lacking accuracy in its outlooks over the last several weeks.
Enjoy it!
