Closing Markets: Corn: +0.25 old & -0.75 new.
Beans: +5.25 old & +4 new. Wheat: -2.
PLEASE JOIN US NEXT WEEK FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Markets finished mixed across the CBOT on Tuesday, as talk surrounding potential Chinese purchases of US soybeans and the pending RVO announcement from the EPA once again dominated a lot of the chatter throughout the day despite there being little actually new to discuss on either front. Amid what appears to be a pause in tariff pressure, we're not sure at present why China would look to take additional beans from the US, and the EPA announcing renewable fuel obligations for the year doesn't answer the lingering question of what's going to happen with small refinery exemptions. Premium is being injected due to the unknowns, but our fear is that as these questions get answered, the path forward sees less resistance to the downside than it does to the upside.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed on the precipice of unchanged for the second straight session on Tuesday, as limited input continues to produce choppy, sideways price action that has been relatively uneventful since the end of last week. With the Argy crop seeing needed rains the last couple weeks that largely stabilized production prospects and planting in Brazil only behind because rains are still regularly falling, traders have settled into a bit of wait-and-see mode in this market, with the March stocks and acreage report just around the corner and the February crop insurance pricing window closing prior to that. The only real question in the meantime comes from the cash side, and is one of whether or not the farmer keeps dribbling out supply to keep a lid on rallies if they happen or if a basis-led pop is going to be needed to get the last third of this year's crop pried lose over the next 4-6 months.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished in the green on Tuesday, with bean oil the leader of the three on another round of speculative buying based on rumors that the EPA's RVO proposal would be arriving at the White House this week. The beans were also higher on the above mentioned rumors of Chinese buying, though confirmation of this was lacking and would seem to be questionable given the economic situation at hand. We'd like to offer some sort of friendly explanation for how the Chinese business should find its way to us between now and the end of the summer but are just simply having a hard time doing so amid what is an ever-widening gap between the price of our supplies and those available in Brazil. Furthermore, the changing tariff environment has again brought up the conversation of Brazilian beans being imported to crush in the US, which is a flickering candle on the back burner right now that nobody wants to pay much attention to.
Wheat Summary-
Like corn, fresh news in the wheat market weas largely limited on Tuesday which led to closes in the market on either side of unchanged. Following a new round of highs for the move on Monday, Chicago prices retreated from this area just a day later, signaling perhaps that a short term correction could be in store from here.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.05+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Midwest weather is little changed this afternoon from yesterday, with models continuing to be in good agreement on a wetter/warmer trending forecast for most of the Corn Belt over the next week or so and into the first part of March. As we get into a more spring-like pattern, temperature forecasts will become more difficult to predict, with random short bouts of colder air more likely amid what otherwise looks to be an overall warmer trend.
There continues to be good model agreement this afternoon on a wet corridor that stretches from the south-central part of the US in TX/NM and through the Midwest and into the parts of the Northeast in the week two period, which if accurate, would be greatly beneficial to spring soil moisture. Southwest flow from the Pacific jet will help keep the pattern, and will hopefully allow systems to come across and meet up with Gulf Moisture before being shunned back through the mid-section of the US due to high pressure in the southeast.
Temperature maps, meanwhile, have done nothing but trend warmer in recent days in the back end of the forecast, and this afternoon's runs are no different. Both the EU and the GFS have most all of the US east of the Rockies seeing daytime highs that are anywhere from 10-20 degrees F above average in the 10-15 day period, which would be March 6th-11th.
Forecasts for Argentina are little changed this afternoon, with today's 12Z runs still showing limited rainfall through the most of the country's ag belt through the week this week before better moisture returns again on the weekend and lasts into next week. The northeastern part of the country looks to stay drier, but the main ag areas in the center-south should benefit from coming rains.
If there is an area of concern it will remain far southern Brazil, as forecasts continue to show dryness remaining in place here for at least the rest of the week this week and into next week, before there's finally a chance of rains again the following weekend. To the north, rains are seen in excess of 5+" between now and the end of the week next week, which could again limit fieldwork operations in some areas but will still be overall beneficial for moisture reserves needed to sustain the safrinha corn crop.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
