Closing Markets: Corn: +9 old & new.
Beans: +9.50 old & +10.75 new. Wheat: +32.50.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
It was a rally day in the ag markets Wednesday, with wheat futures leading the charge higher on another addition of risk premium based on ongoing attacks in the Black Sea/Sea of Azov region. Its trader assessment of this risk that has largely driven ag futures this week, with funds exiting short positions amid what has become a newly tightened global grain picture the last few days and as weather forecasts in the US have stagnated a bit until rains return next week.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures scored another round of new highs for the week on Wednesday, but largely occupied the proverbial carriage role throughout the course of day amid a sizeable up move in the wheat market and as the same general trading themes present on Tuesday were at the center of most conversations again on Wednesday. With the rally to new highs today, there was an increase in chatter surrounding when farmers might move the next round of old crop cash bushels, but this target seems to still be a bit above the market today and would lead us to believe that, barring something changing geopolitically, there's room for additional upside action short term.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex traded higher Wednesday, finishing in the green on a combination of a strong monthly crush report and more of the same ongoing trends that lifted values previously this week. Oil stocks falling on increasing crush means the green diesel space is alive and well and churning out production, which has been the ongoing reason for the strength in bean oil and doesn't look to change anytime soon. Furthermore, and more specifically, it’s the need for bean oil to encourage imports of alternative supplies via price that has kept that market strong, as there simply isn't enough soybean oil produced in the US to cover the EPA's new mandates. Otherwise, for the beans themselves, its China buying and production and how those two relate to ending stocks that continues to be the biggest market input into harvest.
Wheat Summary-
It was all about grain shipping in the Black Sea region on Wednesday, with wheat futures gaining some 30+ cents on the board on further short covering and premium injection based on shipping disruptions in the region and as traders continue to try and digest world supply availability. It’s important to note that while traders in the US have been rapidly covering shorts over the last week, this is still a risk premium situation and not a new US export demand story. There has been little room for either production or logistics hiccups on the world balance sheet, and the market is now pricing this new risk accordingly.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $1.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
There continues to be little to discuss in terms of the weather the rest of the week and into the weekend, with heat settling in across the northern part of the country and rains favoring areas in the intermountain west as well as along the Gulf Coast in the southeast due to the much discussed high pressure ridging in the central part of the country.
Models this afternoon continue to show the pattern shifting a bit then into next week, as the pressure ridge retrogrades back to the west and allows ride-riding thunderstorms to impact more of the eastern US, getting into parts of the Corn Belt as well. There's not great model agreement this afternoon on the exact locations/amounts of this rainfall, only that storm activity is likely to increase, which means this pattern will need to be monitored through the rest of the week.
Forecasts also see temperatures moderating a bit back towards more seasonally normal levels beyond the first part of next week, even possibly dropping to below normal in some parts of the west and northwest where heat is most extreme this week.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
