Closing Markets: Corn: +5.75 old & +5.50 new.
Beans: -0.75 old & -0.75 new. Wheat: +2.50.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
The rally week had at the CBOT this week remained largely intact for the most part on Thursday, with meal and front month soybean futures finishing the day in the red but the rest of the space again in the green on another move to new highs for the week. Trade continues to be focused in large part on perceived crop prospects coming out of Pro Farmer tour this week, as well as risk assessments in the Black Sea region, which are both supply related events that are responsible for a lot of the premium injection seen over the last week or so. Balance sheets both in the US and around the world are as tight as they've been in the years, and the market is reacting accordingly.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures were again higher on Thursday, with the new crop Dec contract challenging the old highs for the year made back in May amid what continues to be an injection of premium based on a loss of exportable supply around the globe. Looked at in vacuum, the crop loss in the US typically wouldn't be all that big of a deal (a 15.5 bil bu crop would still be the second biggest on record) but its that its coming on top of record demand that has gotten the market excited in recent weeks. Ending stocks are already tight, and if China comes in in September and says they're going to buy corn or the crop sitting in the field continues to shrink, that number is only going to get even smaller. A correction is due at some point, but our lean is bullish until either we know for sure what the US crop size is or there is some sort of progress made towards a resolution in the Black Sea region.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished Thursday mixed, with lower trade in the meal market helping to tug front month soybean futures just barely into the red by the close of the day. Crop chatter from the Pro Farmer tour was again a theme throughout the day today, but there was a lack of fresh input to the space otherwise outside of another flash sale to unknown destinations this morning and what was a generally routine weekly export sales report. The tour's yield estimate is expected to attract quite a bit of attention into the weekend, but with the chart being both within spitting distance of the old high and also nearly in overbought territory, we wouldn't be overly surprised to see some sort of corrective action emerge into the weekend.
Wheat Summary-
There was again little if anything new to report in the wheat market on Thursday, with Chicago futures quietly higher amid more Black Sea attacks and an overall unchanged situation in the region. The market isn't going to trade the Russia - Ukraine forever, but at least for now, we have little answer as to when the constant flow of headlines regarding the two are going to stop. Outside of the US and western Europe, who have real production losses, there are bushels to export in the Black Sea region, they just simply can't go anywhere today. If this changes, it will be a significant price event that will likely play out over multiple days.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $2.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Following what has been one of the wetter first three weeks of August on record across much of the central and eastern Corn Belt, forecasts are beginning to trend drier into the end of the month, with the noon GFS run today now showing little to no rainfall across the region into the middle of next week.
Temperatures through the Corn Belt look to stay much the same as they've been the last couple days into the weekend and next week, with much of the region staying on the mild side while heat stays generally pushed to the south and west.
Forecasts into the first part of September have been variable and lacking in consistency over the last few days, with yesterday's warmer shift in the 10-15 day period trending back cooler today. In fact, today's EU run was even cooler throughout a larger portion of the eastern US than it was earlier in the week and is also now cooler into part of TX and OK in the south-central US, though the GFS solution here is notably different.
Week two precip anomaly forecasts were also wetter on Thursday than previous days this week, at least in the case of the EU ensemble, with it now showing a wetter bias throughout most of the central US from the Rockies to the Mississippi. The GFS ensemble continues to look like recent days though and has kept a drier bias through most of the region, which has lowered overall confidence in the outlook.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
