Closing Markets: Corn: -3.25.
Beans: -13.75. Wheat: -9.75.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets saw further selling pressure on Thursday, with a small overnight rally failing and giving way to lower trade shortly after the day session opened back up this morning. There were additional cash sales this morning to China, but cash sources have noted a drop-off in interest the past several days as the board rally has made US supplies non-competitive from a price standpoint. China's bean buying has been 100% a political gesture, which is why we point to the extremely lopsided economics as reason it is unlikely to continue for a whole lot longer. Whether sideways trade emerges in the lower $11 range or if the market rolls over to go fill the open chart gap back in the mid-10's will be one of the bigger questions going forward.
Corn Summary-
Will keep it short here this afternoon, as the corn market saw another day of relatively quiet trade amid an ongoing lack of anything of importance to chew on from a fundamental standpoint. Sales data this morning was positive, but was a month and a half old and makes little difference to current fundamentals, which led prices to just drift lower again throughout the day today. With the market now back to the bottom end of the trading range again and tomorrow being a Friday, key going into the weekend will be whether this level holds or if the market takes another leg down.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures closed lower for a third straight day on Thursday, as the excitement surrounding the Chinese bean purchases has run its course and traders are realizing that while they are a step in the right direction, the sales are a drop in the bucket in terms of what the Trump administration has touted they would be buying. Furthermore, though it has gone by the wayside a bit, there has still been zero confirmation from the Chinese side that any sort of trade deal has been signed, let alone that they have any intention in adhering to it. Then aside from this, in the background remains a 175+ MMT crop that is growing in Brazil, that regardless of what happens between the US and China, should limit rally potential on the margin going into 2026.
Wheat Summary-
After climbing above the 100-day moving average on Monday this week, Chicago wheat futures fell back below this level on Thursday, with selling in abundance right from this morning’s open. Scattered headlines that a peace deal could be reached in Ukraine "as early as in the next week" following meetings between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian officials this week were the main source of the sell pressure, but a further decline in Argentine wheat values, which are the cheapest in the world, also didn't help matters. We have little insight into the situation in Ukraine, but would simply mention peace deals have allegedly been days or weeks away several time in the past year since Trump was elected president, only to fall apart at some point down the road. We see the fundamental differences between the Russians and the Ukrainians as largely remaining in place, which hinders our optimism.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.40+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Rainfall expands through the south-central and southeastern US the rest of the week this week and into the weekend, with today's mid-day GFS run slightly drier than the morning EU run. To the north, things will stay drier into next week, though there will then be light precip potential Monday into Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to be above average for the Midwest the rest of this week and through the weekend, with daytime highs on Sunday expected to be in the upper 50's/lower 60's through a lot of the central part of the country. Mild temps hang around the first part of the week, before cooler air looks to show up Wednesday.
Extended forecasts continue to show improved rain potential through most of the US east of the Rockies into the first part of December, as high pressure ridging in the Pacific allows flow to continue to bringing storm systems through the central and south-central part of the country and then up into the Midwest. Models are keeping the PNW and most of the West Coast drier for the same reason.
There continues to be good model agreement on the milder central US air that has been in place through most of fall slowly making its seasonal exit next week, as cooler arctic air is pushed south and east out of Canada. Should active upper atmosphere flow continue, we wouldn't expect this cold air to stay in place for an extended period as the high pressure ridge in the Pacific would be expected to move east into the middle of December.
Mid-day South American forecasts are drier through Argentina the next 48 hours but are otherwise little changed for the bulk of Brazil and continue to show improved moisture in the north and north-central growing regions into next week. Models also see moisture then expanding back into southern Brazil slightly quicker than has been seen the rest of this week, with most all of the country expected to see more than an inch of rainfall over the next 10 days.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
