Closing Markets: Corn: +0.50 old & new.
Beans: -10 old & -10.50 new. Wheat: -5.75 old & new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
With the exception of corn, ag markets were mostly lower on Wednesday as overnight buying ceased and gave way to downside pressure early in the morning this morning that lasted into the afternoon and the close despite strength on Middle East headlines in the energy and equity markets. While there was little new today in terms of news, it seemed traders took the day to square positions and adjust risk with the end of the month coming up, which produced choppy, two-sided trade throughout the session.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed unchanged to slightly higher on Wednesday, with our best reason for the buying being that traders needed something to spread with as they sold the soy complex and wheat market. There are simmering crop concerns due to dryness in South America, but there does not look to be any sort of sizeable yield loss risk today. Keep in mind that the USDA is still well below both the Argentina government and several private crop bodies in the country, meaning even if the heat is zapping the top end off yields, the USDA likely will still have to adjust production higher, the question would just then become by how much. That said, we see July futures a sell above $4.70 unless significant planting issues develop in the next three-four weeks.
Soybean Summary-
It was a reversal day in the soy complex, with all three of the beans, meal and oil scoring new highs for the week early in the day before reversing course and finishing the session lower. Like corn, we see a lot of the day's price action as related to position adjusting, as it appears there is a risk-off mood amongst the trade following the latest developments in Iran. While geopolitics here related to energy values and thereby bean oil will continue to be a major day-to-day factor, geopolitics involving China and Trump's planned visit in another couple weeks will also begin to be more of a factor in the days ahead.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed Wednesday lower, though were caught somewhat in the middle of the corn and soybean markets on what was mostly tag-along trading as frost concerns lessened again from yesterday across the western wheat belt. Position squaring here has not been as a big a factor as the funds are near neutral and have been for a couple weeks, but it was more spread activity ahead of first notice day today that garnered the bulk of the chatter.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $3.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Low pressure working across the central part of the US tomorrow and into Friday looks to provide another round of potentially severe weather to the west-central Midwest, with rain, wind and thunderstorms likely across parts of MO, IA, WI, MN and most of the northern/northwestern Corn Belt.
Once this system passes, things calm down again for a couple days before another system on a slightly more southern track works through the area with more rain and storms the early part of next week. Seven-day rainfall totals across a lot of the western and southern parts of the Corn Belt look to range from 2-4", with a lighter 1-2" expected for more of the eastern part of the region.
Extended range precip maps this afternoon are like yesterday's runs in continuing to show average to above average precip chances for most all of the US, especially the southern 2/3s. That said, our confidence in these longer term outlooks remains relatively low as the pattern stays active and subject to sudden changes.
Temperature-wise, a slightly cooler outlook still looks to lie ahead for a lot of the eastern US as ridging returns to the west and warms things back up here. The cooler air will keep frost concerns present in the northern Corn Belt into the opening days of May, but with North Dakota at 0% planted as of the last update, South Dakota at 4% and MN at just 6%, concern shouldn't be overly high today.
While moisture has been adequate in Mato Grosso state for Brazil's safrinha corn crop, most of the rest of the country's growing regions have seen stress from recent dryness, and forecasts don't show a lot of relief in the short term. Argentina also has a dry forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend, which while a negative for later developing corn and soybean crops, should allow for good harvest progress to be made over the next 5-10 days.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
