Closing Markets: Corn: -13.25 old & -11.50 new.
Beans: -70 old & -40.75 new. Wheat: -16.50 old & -16.75 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
For the first time in several days market focus at the CBOT was on something other than the Middle East on Monday, as rumors that the much-anticipated Trump-Xi summit at the end of the month possibly now being delayed sent the bean and bean oil markets to limit losses by the day's close. This, mixed with a fall in crude oil values, allowed the selling to permeate the rest of the space, leaving ag futures with one of their worst starts to a week in some time.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures fell victim to broader ag market selling on Monday, as weakness in the soy complex and in the energy markets left prices with nowhere to go but down. We talked about it last week, but market fundamentals have meant little of late; its order flow and chart momentum that mean the most to price direction in the short term, and today, those things were clearly pointed lower. With rains continuing to fall in Brazil and the safrinha crop there off to a good start, the USDA's crop estimates in Argentina likely too low, and the prospects for an acreage figure this spring above the USDA's current estimate seemingly having better odds than not, we're just having a hard time finding something positive that could sustain a rally in the short term. Even after today's sell off, it would seem there are notably more downside price risks present than upside ones short of some kind of weather issue popping up in the next three-five months.
Soybean Summary-
Concerns regarding Chinese buying of American soybeans returned to the forefront of the complex on Monday and led values to one of their worst days in many months, as concerns that additional business would now not occur led to a sharp exodus of market longs. From a nuts-and-bolts standpoint, it’s the idea that without the additional business, current export estimates are likely too high and ending stocks are likely too low that has produced a removal of premium, and this is what we've warned about for weeks now. Adding fuel to the fire were also headlines that the Iran war could now push the delay of the EPA's RVO announcement back to April, which just made things worse. The bottom line is that a limit down day coming out of a weekend of trade negotiations between the US and China that by most accounts was productive, would seem to be a particularly negative development that doesn't bode overly well now for an extension of the current rally.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed lower to start the week on Monday, as group-wide selling from the other markets outweighed weekend news that Russian FOB export prices had reached their highest level since late last summer. Wide-ranging temperature swings have produced crop questions across the US wheat belt, but these also weren't seemingly enough to get additional premium into the space on Monday. With funds now near-neutral, it will be interesting to see from here whether market can the retain the same amount of upside vigor with there nowhere near the same amount of short covering potential that was available a month ago.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $5.50+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Following what most hope will be the last shot of winter weather for the season across much of the Midwest this weekend and through the day today on Monday, forecasts are drier for a lot of the region the rest of the week this week and into the following weekend and see just limited precip possible from small clipper systems that could work out of the north and northwest.
Cool temperatures brought with the weekend storm look to linger through much of the eastern and east-central US today and tomorrow, but then largely exit the country by mid-week, allowing warmer air caused by southwestern US ridging to again be the dominant feature for most all of the western 2/3s of the US by the end of the week.
In the extended period forecast, which now reaches the final days of March, models diverged in consistency over the weekend, with both continuing to stay dry through the west and southwest, but the GFS trending wetter in the east and northeast while the EU sees just average precip chances in these areas.
Temperature-wise, models still have the warmest air relative to normal hanging out in the west and southwestern US in the period, but still keep most of the country on the warmer side of average and keep cold air further to the north.
Both Brazil and Argentina saw generally as-expected rains over the weekend, with forecasts now calling for more of the same for the most part this week and into next weekend. Rains that favored southwestern Argentina last week now look to shift to the southeastern part of the country this week, hitting some of the drier areas in/around Buenos Aires, while Brazil still sees an ongoing pattern of regular rainfall in the north and north-central growing areas, with dryness ongoing throughout the south.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
