Closing Markets: Corn: -2 old & +0 new.
Beans: -5 old & -1.50 new. Wheat: +0.75 old & new.
All Topflight locations will be closed TOMORROW! April 3rd in observance of Good Friday!! Happy Easter!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening! Go Illini!
Market Recap-
Closes at the CBOT were mixed Thursday going into the long Easter holiday weekend in what was a mostly low-volume/low-activity day of trade throughout the space. As geopolitical risk and the war in Iran remain front and center, there were few interested in taking on new positions ahead of three days of headline risk, which produced the fleeting price action as the day went on.
Corn Summary-
The corn market finished mostly lower on Thursday as position-squaring selling was noted throughout most of the morning and into the afternoon ahead of the long holiday weekend. We talked about it this morning, but we see crude oil values as continuing to be the number one driver of corn prices in the short term until a resolution is found on the war in Iran, with planting pace and weather then likely quickly taking over if/when this occurs. It's been well-documented that normal weather springs produce increased corn acres relative to the March report, and this will be the big question in the market between now and June. Much like was the case last year, it’s the inability for ending stocks to drop below the 2.0 bil bu mark that looks to limit rally potential in the corn market on the margin.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures also closed lower on Thursday, as a crude-led rally in the bean oil market was unable to pull the beans or the meal higher along with it. As has been the case for weeks now, bean oil has remained the leader in the soy complex this week post the RVO announcement from the EPA last week, as oil share remains perched near 52% and has kept crush margins strong. Otherwise, as we get further into the month of April, focus will shift back to the Trump-Xi China meeting at some point, along with the prospect of additional Chinese bean purchases that will have a noted effect on the balance sheet.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed near unchanged to end the week on Thursday, as an overnight rally didn't last very long into the day session and ended up back near unchanged within the first hour of the morning. Between ongoing sharp swings in the energy markets and Plains weather forecasts that haven't had run to run consistency for days now, input into the wheat market this week has been difficult to assess and has been part of the reason for the market's increased volatility. Funds have gone to net-nothing as they wait for more crop information later this spring, and we see longer term price direction largely being a result of whether or not they have interest in getting back into their short position they've had for the better part of the last four years. If yes, prices likely grind lower into summer and drift back towards $5; but if no, we imagine the market hangs out in the $6's for a while until more is known on northern hemisphere crops in another couple months.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $11.48+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Active weather likely continues for the next few days into the weekend across most of the Midwest, as models continue to be in good agreement on a corridor from TX to the Great Lakes staying on the wet side into the first part of next week. This afternoon's GFS model run has additional rainfall totals through the Easter weekend in a range of a half inch to an inch generally speaking, with some totals on both ends of this range possible in local areas.
Weekend temperatures will be mostly on the warmer side through the eastern US into Sunday before cooler air present in the central and north-central US the next couple days works east by the end of the weekend and through the first part of next week. Anomaly maps keep most of the country warm, but passing cut-off lows will continue to provide intermittent bouts of cooler air into and through the week next week, as is common during spring.
Week two forecasts continued to show little change this afternoon, and have remained anomalously wet through the central US into the middle of April. The west-central US (wheat country) went back slightly wetter this afternoon also, but it’s been this area all week that has seen rain come into the forecast one day only to be taken back out the next. Notable dry areas include the far northwest and up the coast of Canada, and through the southeastern US and up most of the East Coast.
There continues to be good model agreement this afternoon on the 10-15 day temperature outlook, with both still showing most all the US in a warmer-than-normal pattern into the middle of the month. We assume passing pockets of cooler air will stay likely, but the overall pattern should produce more warmer days than cooler throughout the period.
Weekend rains across South America will be hit or miss through most of Brazil, while Argentina sees a pocket of decent rains in the central/east-central part of the country. By the end of next week, models then have better moisture expanding throughout most of both countries, with the exception being a pocket in east-central Brazil that is expected to stay drier.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
