Closing Markets: Corn: +7.75 old & +7 new.
Beans: -15.25 old & new. Wheat: +0.25.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets were mixed to start the new week on Monday, with Pro Farmer's US yield estimates controlling most of the narrative throughout the day but there being a little something for everyone overall amid what continues to be a fairly robust input environment around the board of trade. It was US production that took the focus today, but it could very well be a different headline Tuesday and this looks to keep volatility and choppiness on the busier side this week.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures started the week higher on Monday, though were well off their highs by the closing bell as excitement regarding the Pro Farmer yield estimate faded a bit throughout the day. Going back to last week, most in the market were penciling in some sort of yield number below where the USDA is at currently, but we're not sure there was anyone pounding the drum for something in the low 170's and this is almost entirely responsible for the price action we saw last night and throughout the day today. Obviously if USDA follows suit and drops production on the balance sheet to a similar level there will be some sort of offsetting demand adjustment, but this is going to be the major discussion amongst traders for the next couple weeks ahead of the Sep WASDE update. We've talked for weeks about how the new crop balance sheet simply cannot afford to have any more bushels of supply pulled off, and the Pro Farmer yield figure last week, for now, did just that.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished mostly lower on Monday, with the beans and oil seeing heavy selling pressure throughout most of the session on a combination of higher production prospects for the beans and an extension of the 2025 renewable fuel compliance deadline for the oil. With farming season dead ahead, the Pro Farmer production number is the easy headline to talk about this afternoon, but we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the more than 2-cent sell off in bean oil values the dropped futures right back to the their old summer lows. The deadline extension mentioned above is one thing, but rumors that SREs could be increased by some 0.4-0.8 billion gallons would be a new bearish input that likely wasn't fully priced in with today's action. As for the beans, the crop tour last week seemed to open some people's eyes to a higher production potential, but it's really all about finishing weather still from here amid pod counts that were actually down from last year and average in most areas the tour covered.
Wheat Summary-
The wheat market closed near unchanged on Monday, with traders seemingly in wait-and-see mode to figure out if anything is going to happen with what have been regular rumors surrounding some sort of ceasefire for civilian vessel traffic in the Black Sea region. The situation is not normalizing and if attacks continue, at some point exports out of the region are going to grind to a complete halt. We are not forecasting this to be the case today, but are simply cautioning that the situation could get new bullish legs again once seasonals turn more friendly in the weeks ahead. Planted winter wheat acres in the US are likely to be up from last year, but it remains the export/supply situation in the Black Sea that the market is without a doubt more concerned about.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $1.50+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Models out of the weekend are in fair agreement on a drier weather pattern for much of the Corn Belt this week, with regular sunshine expected throughout much of the region while rainfall is largely limited to the southeast and light/scattered showers across the Plains in the west. This afternoon's GFS run though has little to no precip over the next five days from MN to KY, which should allow the wetter areas there to dry out a bit.
Daytime highs this week look to be on the mild side again, though will gradually warm into the back half of the week and the weekend as high pressure expands back east. Any sort of threatening heat though still looks to remain largely confined to the west and southwest, with temperatures through the Corn Belt still not expected to get to much more than slightly above average for this time of year.
Extended forecasts into the week two period trended wetter over the weekend, while new September monthly data from the CPC also shows a lot of the country's mid-section staying on the wetter side of normal. Notably though, the models still show drier conditions as likely across parts of TX and into the Gulf.
Temperature forecasts in the extended period trended warmer over the weekend, with runs from both the EU and the GFS showing warmth spreading back across the central and eastern parts of the US into September. Any extreme heat still looks to stay south and west of the main growing areas in the Midwest.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
