Closing Markets: Corn: +20.25 old & new.
Beans: +14.50 old & new. Wheat: +22.50.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Report day brought about higher closes across the grain and soy markets on Wednesday, with data-based strength in the corn spilling over into the rest of the space amid what seemed to be a heavy day of computer activity as evidenced rather clearly by the five minute charts. There was no question where trader focus was today, but going into the rest of the week, it will be interesting to see whether the report continues to attract attention or if focus shifts back elsewhere amid ongoing wars in both the Black Sea and the Middle East.
Corn Summary-
Corn was the most bullish of the bunch on Wednesday, as new crop ending stocks saw another cut on a smaller carry in and a bump in demand despite production coming in higher than was seen last month. Yields came in expectedly lower, but as was the case last August, planted area surprised on the upside with the USDA printing an additional 1.4 million acres. The report was undoubtedly bullish, but that there is little room for production error isn't necessarily a new development; last month, talking heads were pounding the drum that any sort of hiccup in production could not be afforded, and this month, post-report rhetoric is largely the same. Strong demand has tightened the balance sheets, and is a lot of the reason why new crop corn futures into next spring are back at or near the $5 level.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex closed higher on report day, though data from the USDA was not nearly as bullish the beans as is was the corn. Production was higher on the month (also on a surprise acreage increase), ending stocks were higher both in the US and at the world level, and there was no real major increase in demand, yet futures were up some 20+ cents immediately after the report's release. If this doesn't scream algo trading, we're not entirely sure what does. From here, weather through the remainder of August will be a focus as it pertains to crop production, but otherwise, we see focus as a two part equation of Chinese buying and their trade relationship with the US, and the ongoing biofuel story that should keep bean oil demand elevated.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed higher on Wednesday, with strength based on new Ukrainian attacks on Russian port infrastructure last night and spill over buying out of the bullish day in the corn market. The USDA cut winter wheat production again slightly in today's update, but this is the one market where the report likely didn't have a lot of impact amid the ongoing situation in the Black Sea and the lack of export ability in the region. We've talked about it for week, but this is by the far most important fundamental situation to the market, with it being our opinion that nobody is really quite sure exactly how much is supply is going to be kept off the market over the next few months. Export estimates are falling every day, but they are almost instantly followed by reports of more new attacks, which has kept the situation as a moving target to this point. That said, until some sort of resolution is found or the attacks at least abate a bit, we see the market having a hard time trading too much to the downside outside of minor corrections.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures near unchanged/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Ring of fire rains around the southern US high pressure ridge continue to be the main forecast feature at mid-week this week, with ongoing thunderstorm activity expected to continue impacting the central Midwest through the end of the week and into the weekend.
The EU model continues to be wetter through the northwestern part of the region into the weekend, but the two are in fairly good agreement further to the south and throughout the rest of the Corn Belt though exact locations/amounts will be hard to pinpoint due to the nature of the storms.
Week two precip anomaly outlooks continue to run drier through the Midwest into the back half of the month, but meteorologists are doubting this a bit and see the high pressure ridging in the south lingering and allowing thunderstorms to continue to impact the area beyond the next week.
Temperature forecasts into the back half of the month are little changed today, and continue to show cooler air hanging out across the northeastern quarter of the country while heat stays present in the west and across the southeast.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
