Closing Markets: Corn: +8 old & +9 new.
Beans: +14 old & +9.25 new. Wheat: +20.50.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Happy Friday. WASDE day finished higher across the CBOT, though the buying had largely begun before the data came out at 11am central time this morning on a war-related pop in the wheat market. This isn't to say the report wasn't friendly, but just that closes may not have been quite as strong as they were had the Black Sea news not dropped this morning. Now, with the reports having come and gone, it is right back to forecast watching for most in the trade, with the next order of business to be ridge development across the western US into and through the week next week. Forecast runs the next couple days will draw an outsized amount of attention relative to normal, and will more than likely dictate how markets open Sunday evening.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures finished the week and report day higher on Friday on strength in the wheat market and a fall in new crop ending stocks estimates to well below the 2.0 bil bu mark. However, there wasn't a lot new on the balance sheet otherwise, with the bulk of the reduction coming via a drop in beginning stocks from the old crop year that were lowered due to what is likely to be a much-debated increase in the feed and residual category. Demand will continue to be adjusted on the old crop side, but focus in the new crop now quickly returns to production prospects and weather, as this is where the bulk of the bushel adjustments will come over the next several months.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished the week higher on Friday on what was a generally a quiet report day, as the USDA didn't make any major adjustments to the balance sheets outside of known production updates that were coming following quarterly stocks and acreage data a couple weeks ago. Like we talked about in corn, there could be minor adjustments still throughout the rest of the summer and into fall on demand items like crush and exports, but it's supply that will most impact the bottom line now going forward. Even with the bump in acres, a fall in yield on less than ideal weather through the end of the season could still drop ending stocks below 300 mil bu, which becomes somewhat interesting amid renewed demand out of China.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures led the CBOT upside charge to end the week on Friday, finishing in the green on a new round of headlines out of the Russia-Ukraine war that indicate a likely closure to exports out of the Sea of Azov, which would possibly disrupt as much of as a quarter of Russia's exportable supply. Officials gave no comment as to how long they thought such a closure might last, but as the closure is the result of Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels, it seemingly significantly increases the risk that Russia begins targeting Ukrainian grain vessels in retaliation. Add in a further lowering of production estimates in the US, and you got bullish tailwinds from multiple directions on Friday that pushed futures to their highest levels in nearly a month and a half.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.50+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Midwest weather into next week has been well-advertised the last several days, as high pressure ridging across the northwestern part of the US will be the dominant feature over the next five-seven days. Ongoing thunderstorm activity will continue across the southern and south-central parts of the Midwest the next 24 hours or so, but will gradually work south then into next week as the northern call it 3/4 of the Corn Belt turns off drier for several days.
On the temperature side, there will be a somewhat stark divide next week between warmer air in the northern part of the Midwest and cooler air to the south, though for the most part, any sort of extreme heat stays to the north and west of most of the main growing areas. There isn't a huge amount of crop concern today for the region as a whole, but there are likely places in the Dakotas and MN that will see triple digit highs in the coming days that could become problematic should the forecast shift to hotter for longer over the weekend.
For now, models continue to see the mentioned high pressure breaking down by the end of the week next week, but the trough advertised for the eastern US then into the following is less pronounced today than it has been previously. As we've said for days now, run-to-run variability has limited confidence in any forecast beyond the next five days or so, and we would expect this to continue through the weekend and into the week next week.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
