Closing Markets: Corn: -3.50 old & -4.25 new.
Beans: -15.50 old & -10.75 new. Wheat: +12.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
It was a bit of a mixed bag at the board of trade on Thursday, with the corn and bean markets lower, the wheat and meal markets higher, and the oil market also lower but still attached at the hip to crude oil futures again on renewed fuel supply availability concerns in the Middle East. It's weather that continues to be the most important market factor in the short term, but the USDA will briefly steal the spotlight on Friday when it releases new monthly supply and demand data. Regardless of what the report says, with it being on a Friday in July ahead of a weekend of likely-to-change weather forecasts, we'd anticipate position squaring to be a feature throughout the day no matter what, which could produce a bit of choppy price action. Good luck with tomorrow's numbers, and as we mention every month, don't be afraid to prioritize risk management.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed lower Thursday, selling off on what newswires described as fear surrounding a loss in Spanish corn demand following not-so-nice comments from President Trump in Turkey this week. How the US singles out Spain from the rest of the bloc legally is a major question mark, which would seemingly lower the threat that such demand destruction occurs. More likely is the fact that weather forecasts have been getting less threatening all week, and the reason for the run up in the first place was partly the result of heat/dryness that was being advertised for mid-month and into the pollination window. It's going to get warm still next week, but there doesn't at this point look to be any sort of lasting extreme heat and soil moisture levels in a lot of the region are sufficient enough to be able to withstand a few days of warmer weather. It getting hot in July - like we would argue it does most every year - is not a death sentence for the corn crop and could be a benefit to areas that have had yellowing due to excessive moisture and not enough heat.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was mixed Thursday, with the beans and oil lower in a similar fashion while the meal market pushed through chart-based resistance and closed at its highest level since early June. It appears, for lack of a better explanation amid additional sales flashes to China this morning, that the trade continues to be in a bit of buy the rumor, sell the fact mode with today's close back below that seen on Monday's sharp up day as rumored sales are showing up. Bean oil selling was likely tied to world energy values, but otherwise, there wasn't a ton new again here today. To some extent, the trade is in wait-and-see mode for August weather to roll around and also to see if this new run of business by the Chinese is going to become more regular in the weeks ahead. Tomorrow's report isn't expected to offer bean traders a ton, but we're getting into the time of the year where these reports become almost impossible to predict, meaning surprises could be possible.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures broke from the pack on Thursday, finishing the day higher on what most were calling a new round of production-loss related buying ahead of tomorrow's update. The fall in production is nothing new, but as fund traders have gotten short in recent weeks, it's probably safe to assume there was some amount of short covering present today to avoid a bullish reaction to a bigger-than-expected cut should it occur.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $1.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
While focus remains largely on the coming high pressure ridge next week, parts of the southern and south-central Midwest look to see thunderstorm activity and rainfall the next 24-48 hours, with models pegging totals in the 1-2" ballpark. The exact location of these rains will be hit or miss, but the storms look to track generally across parts of MO, IL, IN, KY, and TN into the weekend, with additional rains then expected further south into next week.
Heat looks to build in the west and northwest in the coming days, but daytime highs across much of the Midwest look to stay near normal into next week, as the worst of the warmth associated with the high pressure appears today as if it it's going to avoid most of the major crop areas. Nighttime lows in this afternoon's forecast also aren't expected to be any too extreme next week, with only maybe a night or two that doesn't get into the 60's.
The EU and GFS are in better agreement on the ridge's development this afternoon into and through the week next week, as both continue to generally trend less threatening than the day before and see high pressure breaking down due to tropical storm activity in the Pacific by the end of the week next week.
It's way too far out for any sort of confidence, but the models are also trying to bring in a rather large trough of low pressure into the eastern US beyond next weekend that, if it develops, would bring another cool down in temperatures and an increase in moisture across much of the Corn Belt going into August.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
