Closing Markets: Corn: +1.75 old & new.
Beans: +3.25 old & +3 new. Wheat: -3 old & new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Market Recap-
Chicago ag futures markets were quietly mixed for the most part to get the new week started on Monday, with corn and the soy complex higher and wheat markets lower on what was somewhat of a wait-and-see day amid new Trump threats on the Iran that are set to potentially escalate things again tomorrow evening and a lack of fresh groundbreaking news otherwise. While daily price action between the grain and energy markets has decoupled somewhat over the past week, it's happenings in the Middle East that continue at this point to control the overall money flow in the commodity space. The USDA's April crop report on Thursday offers the next chance at this changing, but we don't expect many fireworks out of the last update before the new marketing year in May.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed quietly higher on Monday after managing just a 6-7 cent trading range for the session on limited early-week volume and as traders await this afternoon's first planting progress update of the season. With market direction in the short term still generally a product of happenings in the Middle East due to the injection of war premium, few wanted to take on any sort of new positions today before seeing whether things escalate again tomorrow evening. That said, we would not be overly surprised to see more choppy/sideways tonight and tomorrow, with it remaining our opinion that we likely see some sort of market correction should the war come to an end or see a pause for negotiations.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures start the week higher on Monday, led to the upside by the bean oil market which set another round of new contract highs. With the Trump-Xi meeting now several weeks away, trading has turned largely technical over the past couple weeks, with prices unable to move above 11.80 or below 11.50. As far as the upside goes, we question a little bit how much bean oil will further be able to the market 70 cent/lb spot futures, and still see China buying as being the long term wild card as to a sustained move above $12. To the downside, its an increase in acres between now and June and an exiting of longs by the funds in bean oil that seemingly provide the easiest and most available sources of pressure.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures were the only market of the group to close lower on Monday, likely pressured by another wet shift in the Plains forecast over the weekend. Like the beans, trade here has also become rather technical and sideways, with $6 generally being the floor for the most part and the 6.20 area being the ceiling.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude Oil Futures up around 70 cents/bbl
Weather Updates-
The Easter weekend brought continued rainfall to a lot of the Midwest and took seven-day totals to 2-3"+ for a large part of the region, with there also being bands of a heavier 4-6" scattered from OK to OH.
As far as this week goes, a small pocket in the central part of the country sees fairly significant snowfall chances tonight and into tomorrow morning, but precip for the rest of the Corn Belt looks to be otherwise mostly absent according to the models for the next few days before a low pressure system brings more moisture to the region beginning on Thursday and then lasting into the weekend.
Temperature forecasts see most of the eastern US staying cooler for another day or so into mid-week this week before more mild air moves back in through the back half of the week and into the weekend. The ongoing active pattern of low pressure systems means temperatures should stay fairly variable but anomaly maps are keeping a mostly warmer bias.
Extended range outlooks now into the back third of April trended wetter across generally the whole of the US over the weekend, though there are some model differences on the drier areas of the central/southern Plains and wheat belt. Seasonal outlooks for April released by the CPC last week have wetter to much wetter than normal conditions across almost all of the Midwest besides the far northwest and far southeast, which is generally in agreement with the week two model runs.
Temperature outlooks into the back half of the month were largely unchanged over the weekend and continue to show above average warmth throughout most of the country, especially in the east and southeast.
Rains across Argentina were better in the north over the weekend than they were in the south, while Brazil saw mostly drier conditions through the eastern half of the country and generally just light rains in the west. Forecast-wise for this week, models have additional rains for the northeastern quarter of Argentina tonight and tomorrow but stay mostly on the drier side through Brazil until early next week when things look to turn back wet again.
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
