Closing Markets: Corn: +5 old & +2.50 new.
Beans: +7.25 old & +0.75 new. Wheat: +17.
PLEASE JOIN US NEXT WEEK FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Happy Friday. Ag markets had strong closes to wrap up the week this week, with wheat futures again the upside leaders on another round of technical buying into the weekend. Fundamentally, there wasn't a lot new in any of the three markets throughout the day today, which makes the end-of-week strength somewhat notable amid prices that are at multi-month highs as a new growing season is now dead ahead. This was the best close in May wheat futures since last summer, the best close in May soybeans since the 2025 highs were made last fall, and the best close in May corn since before the January report.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures scored new highs for the move on Friday amid what was a slow news day to wrap up February. Market themes are little changed today from what they've been the rest of the week this week, with the coming US growing season and the weather going it gaining almost daily in importance. Sources in South America say current moisture levels throughout a lot of the safrinha area are likely sufficient enough at this point to prevent a disaster, but how good yields end up being is still likely a product of when rains shut off later in the season. The last 20% of the crop is usually at risk of rains shutting off in April/May, and this year appears that it will be no different.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was mixed to end the week this week, with the beans higher and the products mixed as traders continue to digest the RVO headlines from earlier this week and debate the likelihood that additional Chinese buying shows up in the short term. Amid the Trump-Xi meeting that is now just a month away seemingly showing signs of falling apart earlier this week, we find the strength in the bean market impressive even if we're not sure how valid it is. If China doesn't buy and weekly inspections take a seasonal dive from here, ending stocks likely increase and would say the market is overpriced. If China buys the full 8 MMTs that Trump is asking for, ending stocks likely decrease, and we would imagine futures test the waters above $12 at some point over the course of the year. Like we've said for several Fridays in a row, its this situation and how it plays out through summer that aside from US weather, has the biggest impact on longer term price direction.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures ripped to new highs again on Friday, though we continue to have little good reason as to why amid supply and demand fundamentals that are anything but positive. We've cited technical trading as reason for the prolonged move for days now, but simply have been unable to pinpoint any other factor that would even remotely justify the 70+ cent rally seen since the lows made in January. Once the funds get back to a more neutral position in wheat like they've done in corn recently, it will be interesting to see whether upward momentum continues or if the rally stalls and corrects again into spring. The rally has made US wheat even less competitive on the global market, and has gotten to a point where companies appear to be looking at importing supplies from outside the US and this also adds to what most feel should be a bearish undertone in the space.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $1.70+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
This afternoon's model runs see a small clipper system bringing light snows to a band through the upper Midwest mostly through the day on Saturday, with precip then increasing into the week next week. The GFS has slightly lower totals this afternoon than the morning EU run did, but both still several rounds of storms next week as ridging in the southeast opens up Gulf moisture flow into the central part of the country.
A pocket of cooler air looks to move through the central Midwest Sunday/Monday, but models have temps back well above normal by the middle of the week next week.
Extended forecasts this afternoon are again similar to what's been seen all week, with the eastern US downright wet into the second week of March, while temperature outlooks continue to be well above normal for the entire Corn Belt. That models have been consistent in this outlook all week has raised our confidence, but we would note as we get into spring that forecasts and patters can be rather volatile and change quickly.
Weekend weather across Argentina will feature just light precip through small, local areas in the parts of the country's south and west, while dryness is seen elsewhere before better rains look to return on Monday. In Brazil, the northern and north-central parts of the country will see ongoing regular rainfall, while states to the south look to be on the drier side through most of the week next week. There continues to be little to no heat issues throughout either country, which is helping lower crop stress in areas that have missed rains.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
