Closing Markets: Corn: +5.
Beans: +10. Wheat: +9.25.
Mahomet FFA will be serving lunches TOMORROW! from 11:20am-1:30pm in Seymour
Good evening!
Market Recap-
CBOT ag markets were lifted to higher closes on Thursday from both a sharp rally in the crude oil market throughout the day and yet another round of China rumors that had Beijing booking some quantity of US soybeans. The rumors had the amount as either one singular cargo (highly unlikely) or 1.26 MMTs, with the latter allegedly coming from a text shared in a WeChat message (making it also rather unlikely). China has played hardball for months with Trump and we see little if any reason why they would've offered a show of good faith just hours ahead of another round of talks between high-ranking officials from both sides in Malaysia, especially as they have continued to add coverage from Brazil well into December. This two-week rally offers at least a small opportunity for producers to make some catch-up sales, but we otherwise continue to see developments between Trump and Xi at the end of next week as either making or breaking this market through the rest of 2025 and into 2026.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed near their highs for the day on Thursday and for the third out of four days so far this week as a sharp rally in the crude oil market led to buying from the opening bell this morning. While there fundamentally continues to be little new to the space with the ongoing lack of crop data from the USDA, we would note that it seemed there was an increase in farmer sales throughout the day today with the previously mentioned $4 cash level likely being hit in several places. Yes, said farmer remains undersold relative to normal, but with the prospect of Trump bucks remaining on the horizon and bin doors likely being shut if they're not already over the next 10-15 days, we don't see a significant change in this anytime really soon, as he/she will simply wait for better pricing opportunities between now and spring.
Soybean Summary-
Just when we thought traders were becoming disillusioned with the day-to-day China rumors, another round of headlines sent prices higher throughout the day on Thursday as a messaging app chat reporting possible US bean sales to Beijing led to a flurry of buying shortly before 11am central time this morning. We've said it all week and we're going to likely continue saying it all week next week; but if you're a producer, we would highly recommend against placing all your chips in the 'yes deal' basket. Prices have rallied nearly 50 cents off the lows made just 10 days ago on nothing but optimism, and should talks over the next eight days not produce some sort of favorable outcome, it is likely these 50 cents could quickly be given back and then some.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures finished higher on Thursday and had one of their better days in the last several weeks, as values traded right to the nearly 8-month old downtrend line and ended up finishing the day there as well. Furthermore, the market managed to close above the 20-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month, which further illustrates the possibility that upside momentum may be forming. That said, as tomorrow is a Friday, it will be interesting to see how the Chicago market acts as it sits at right at resistance and while funds are presumably still rather short.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $3.20+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
The GFS continues to be drier than the EU model on the coming rain event for the southern US through the weekend and into next week, but forecasts are otherwise little changed again this afternoon with dryness still expected through most of the northern and central parts of the Corn Belt. The PNW is still also expected to be wet through the weekend, with potentially heavy rainfall possible along the coast.
Like we mentioned this morning, there will be additional frost risk through the eastern and east-central parts of the Midwest again tonight/tomorrow, but models shows nighttime temps warming through the weekend back into the 40's. Highs then through the weekend and into next week will be similar to the rest of this week for most, and will continue to hover in the upper 50's/lower 60's.
Extended range precip maps through the first week of November turned noticeably drier at mid-day on Thursday, with the both the EU and GFS solutions now showing wetter-than-average conditions in both the northwest and the northeast, but below average precip chances throughout most of the rest of the country. The far northern part of the US along the border with Canada sees average precip chances in the period, which is the result of additional low-pressure systems coming through the northwest.
Both 5-10 and 10-15 day temperature outlooks are similar from both models, and both show a cooler eastern bias and a warmer western bias in the period beginning Monday/Tuesday next week.
Forecasts for Brazil and Argentina are again little changed on Thursday, with models in good agreement on rains for Argentina the next 72 hours, with precip expanding northward into the Brazil through the week next week and into November. Heaviest totals continue to be seen in northern Argentina/southern Brazil, but both models have nearly all of the two country's growing regions receiving precip between now and Monday, November 3rd.
Temperatures will continue to trend cooler through Argentina over the weekend and into the week next week, while southern Brazil sees similar conditions and northern and central Brazil continue to see slightly warmer than normal conditions.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
