Closing Markets: Corn: +8.50 old & new.
Beans: +4.75 old & new. Wheat: +11.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
August ag trade started with a two-sided session on Monday, as most of the space started out lower this morning out of the overnight session before seeing buying emerge throughout the day to drive prices higher into the close. With there not being a lot new on either of the war fronts, focus seemed to turn back to weather and the heat that was present throughout a lot of July that is now being forecast to return into the middle of August, and this, along with what were probably money flows to start the new month, were the best available reasons for the buying.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures got off to a higher start on Monday after taking out last week's low in the overnight session, reversing to the upside on a return to crop focus and as there continue to be headlines of new attacks and disruptions in the Black Sea region. As far as the crop goes, most are under the impression that the national average yield will fall somewhere below the 183.0 bu/acre forecast by the USDA today; this, along with losses in Europe due to record drought and a lack of export ability out of the Black Sea, are why the overall situation in the market has a bullish lean and why we have said breaks should be more corrective features than anything else. Traders desire to know more about northern hemisphere crop sizes, and while supported overall, volatility likely stays elevated in the market until that happens.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished higher to start the week on Monday, driven in part by a late-session pop in the bean oil market on an EPA announcement regarding small refinery exemptions. Futures were already higher for much of the morning ahead of the headlines, but the news put an exclamation point on what was a bullish start to August amid more China buying and a warm weather forecast for the month that will likely lead to a bigger yield debate in the weeks ahead should it verify. Crush expansion news out of ADM last week also put a firm undertone in the market today, though this demand isn't likely to be felt for another couple years. Global demand for renewable fuels and political buying on the part of the Chinese should, like we've talked about the last couple weeks, at least keep some sort of support under the market.
Wheat Summary-
Like corn, the wheat market on Monday traded below last week's lows throughout the overnight session but then recovered into the end of the day and finished steadily in the green on more Black Sea-related buying and as overall world grain fundamentals remain more friendly than not.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $4.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Forecast focus for much of the Midwest the next few days will be on a coming cold front that looks to provide another shot of cooler air and rains for the central part of the region. Models are in agreement on the big picture forecast, but the GFS has rains of 1-2" slightly further east than the EU model does, which only has a half inch to an inch for more the west-central part of the region.
Outside of these storms, the rest of the Corn Belt looks to be on the drier side again this week, though heat stays generally west of the Rockies for the most part into the weekend.
The extended period forecast this afternoon has returned to the same pattern seen throughout much of the month of July, as high pressure ridging anchored over TX and the south-central part so the country produces hot/dry conditions here while rains and thunderstorms are pushed around the boundaries of the ridge.
Models are having a hard time figuring out exactly where this ridge of high pressure is going to be anchored, but are showing above average precip chances on all sides of it in this afternoon's runs. Notable in the forecast also are dry pockets in parts of ND and northern MN which have been hotter than normal and are still seeing significant soil moisture deficits.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
