Closing Markets: Corn: -1.50.
Beans: -0.50. Wheat: -1.50.
TFG is offering ½ rate shrink on beans between 13.1-14.0 at MILMINE & PIERSON through SUNDAY 9/27!!
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches are on!! 11:30-1:30 pm!
Come get a pork chop!
TOMORROW!! ~ Tabor
MONDAY! ~ Pierson
9/29 ~ Emery
9/30 ~ Cisco
10/1 ~ Johnston Siding
The United Church of Atwood will be serving pork chop lunches Saturday, 10/3 from 11am-1pm in Pierson by free-will donation!
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Thursday ag trade was quieter across the CBOT than its been during recent days this week, with most markets closing lower on a lack of headlines out of the much anticipated trade meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. We would anticipate those headlines picking up at some point between now and tomorrow morning, and would also imagine those headlines will dictate a lot of how we open back up tonight and then trade into the weekend. Farmer selling likely absorbs some market strength should it emerge, but we will reiterate that US grain values would seemingly be undervalued should China begin making regular purchases of either.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed Thursday quietly lower, though there still remains a considerable amount of optimism regarding Chinese purchases as the result of this week's trade meeting in Washington D.C. Like we mentioned above, it’s our opinion that any sort of considerable business by the Chinese has not yet been fully priced in, and would further tighten new crop balance sheets that are already creeping towards uncomfortable territory. The Chinese aren't likely to come out and directly say they're going to start a more regular buying program, but traders will be watching the daily and weekly sales wires for any signs of new business. Like we've talked about all week, harvest has been pushed to the back burner until happenings with China are wrapped up.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex saw mixed trade on Thursday, with the products mixed and the beans quietly lower on what ended up being a less exciting session than we'd assume most were anticipating. We, along with others, have talked this week about how there's not likely to be any sort of new soybean-specific announcements made on top of the 25 million tons, yet traders still seemed to position like that wouldn't be the case. Generally speaking, the cash market story this week that has produced sharply higher basis bids in the west has been a bigger development than anything with China, whether its likely to be short-lived or not. The slight delay in harvest and the supply issue its already caused does nothing if not highlight just how tight global balance sheets are, and this is likely to be more of a driving factor in the months ahead than purchases by the Chinese that have become somewhat regular at this point on their way to 25 million tons.
Wheat Summary-
It was another quietly lower day in the wheat market, with trade largely similar to that seen in recent days this week amid what appears to be a stalemate in negotiations to reopen the Black Sea and little fresh input otherwise. Not to beat the dead horse, but like corn, should China begin a more regular purchase program, we would see futures prices as undervalued relative to that demand. The US already doesn't have much of an exportable surplus on hand due to production declines this year, which makes us question just how feasible this Chinese business might be. Otherwise, happenings in the Black Sea continue to be the main factor in world wheat values, and we don't see this ending in the short term.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up around $3.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Forecast focus through the end of the week and weekend remains on increasing precip through the southwest and into the central Plains, while areas generally east of the Mississippi continue to be on the drier side into next week. Models this afternoon have rainfall ranging from a half inch to upwards of 2-3" through the end of the weekend, with heaviest totals centered on the IA/NE border and then south into KS and MO.
Temperature forecasts into next week show warmer air through the Midwest early in the week, but generally continue to keep cooler air present otherwise, with weekend highs still expected to be below normal for most of the area along with daytime highs by the end of the week next week.
Following rainfall through the heart of the country over the weekend, precip forecasts into and through next week are focusing on the remnants of Hurricane Lola, which is expected to make landfall near southern CA and then work into the heart of the US. Exactly how this storm tracks after it makes landfall will be watched for early next week, but the models today have the heaviest precip impacting parts of CO/KS/NE.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
