Closing Markets: Corn: -2.50.
Beans: -7.50. Wheat: -8.50.
TFG is offering a drying incentive at MILMINE through Friday!
2 1/2 cents per pt of moisture up to 30%
Hours are normal 7-4pm!
EMERY will be offering the same drying incentive and hours on Friday this week!
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets were lower on Wednesday but well off their lows in most cases as profit taking and farmer hedge selling was offset by end user buying amid what most feel is still a market that has more upside risk than down. It's the same market inputs present today that have been around since the middle of August, but the charts are overbought and there's a crop report looming at the end of next week that should prompt some measure of selling over the next several sessions. We're not saying the rally is over or not to expect additional upside action, but simply that futures markets rarely go straight up or straight down and that more choppy days could be ahead as harvest gets going in another two or three weeks.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed quietly lower on Wednesday after making another round of new contract highs in the overnight session and then finishing mid-range as traders took a bit of a breather from the recent run up. Like we talked about above, nothing has changed and the fundamental backdrop remains bullish, it was simply a correction day at mid-week as the same news stories were making the rounds for the third or fourth time. Until something changes in the Black Sea or traders get a firm grasp on the US crop size, risk would seemingly remain to the upside with there simply being little in the way of bearish input present today.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures tried to put in a mid-morning rally on Wednesday but were anchored by the bean oil market and ended up finishing the day in the lower half of the range on little if any new input. Soybean oil futures filled the gap left from yesterday's open on a sharp move lower which acted as a weight on the space overall, but other than that, trade throughout the day was again largely based on money flow and fund activity, with there little new in terms of crop assessments or updates on trade with China.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed lower on Wednesday after making new contract highs again overnight as it seemed to be a corrective day across the whole of the space. Like we've discussed with the other two crops, nothing has changed fundamentally in the last 24 hours and risks still remain more bullish than not, the market was just due for a correction and this led to the selling seen throughout the day. We've said it multiple times over the last month, but until something changes with the status quo in the Black Sea region, downward price pressure in wheat should be short-lived and largely limited to corrective behavior. Roughly a quarter of the world's grain trade transits waterways in/around the region and this business can't simply be made up by shifting flows to North and South America.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.40+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Forecasts have much of the central and south-central parts of the US staying on the hot/dry side through the rest of the week and into the weekend, as high pressure lingers in the area and shoves any precip off to the north. The GFS tried to push further south with moisture yesterday, but has reverted back today to keeping rains north of IL and IN and more along the US-Canada border.
Models have heat backing off marginally by the end of the weekend and first part of next week, but much of the Midwest will still see daytime highs that are above normal for early September as high pressure lingers.
Confidence in the extended forecast remains low as the models continue to see considerable run-to-run variability, with yesterday's wetter shift in the week two forecast going back over drier this afternoon across the Corn Belt. The models are wet in the southwest and generally across the western US, but are more variable in the east.
Temperature anomaly maps in the 10-15 day period are still warm across the eastern US, and shove cooler air in the northeast back further north today as compared to yesterday.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
