Closing Markets: Corn: +15.25 old & +16.25 new.
Beans: +47.75 old & +44.50 new. Wheat: +14.25.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
CBOT ag markets came back from the long holiday weekend roaring to the upside on Monday, with both the grain markets and the soy complex scoring sharp gains by the final bell on China headlines and another drier shift in the July forecast for the Midwest. Traders are becoming quickly aware of the supply risks present due to the shaky weather outlook, and are likely to have decided to liquidate a large part of their newly established net-short position at the start of the new month and quarter. As the old saying goes, holidays can often produces changes in trend, and it appears this could possibly have again been the case the last couple days.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures traded sharply higher throughout the day on Monday to get the week started, with more warm weather now seen for the month of July spurring short-covering along with what was generally a wetter-than-desired weekend across much of the Corn Belt. While weekly crop progress data this afternoon is expected to show steady to maybe even slightly improving crop conditions on the week, there are problems that exist at present due primarily to too much rain in a lot of areas and not enough warmth/sunshine to evaporate it. That said, one of the more interesting topics of discussion this week will likely be over whether or not USDA trims yields Friday in their WASDE update; if so, today's rally could be just the beginning of a bigger move to the upside, with bullish input also seen via ongoing crop losses in Europe via record heat/dryness.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex closed higher to sharply higher across the board on Monday, with the beans up some 40-50 cents on weekend news that the US and China had come to terms on the alleged $30 billion ag purchase agreement that the media has talked about for weeks now. Details regarding meetings that took place last week and the subsequent agreements are generally lacking, but a removal of the 10% import tariff on US ag products would be a major headline for trade relations between the two sides. Remember, a lowering of the tariff allows private Chines buyers to more economically purchase soybeans from the US, making the 25 million ton target far more attainable. Corn futures are trading weather, but in the beans, today's rally was more or less all about China.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed higher on the Monday with the rest of the group, as ongoing weather discussions in parts of Europe mixed with spillover buying from the other row crop markets to produce a bullish start to the week. While global grain production has become a question via record temperatures seen across parts of western Europe over the last several weeks, the timing of the situation has made it more of a corn discussion than wheat simply due to the timing and where the crops are in the season. With wheat harvest being well under way across a lot of the region, it stands to be at less risk than the corn crop which is still in the middle of its growing season. There also ideas that production in the east could offset some losses in the west due to weather there not being quite as extreme.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures near unchanged.
Weather Updates-
Following what was generally a wetter-than-desired holiday weekend across a lot of the Midwest, forecasts this week have turned off drier and somewhat warmer again as rains are kept farther to the south through states along the Gulf Coast. This afternoon's GFS model run has rainfall totals the next five days ranging from 1-3" across parts of MN/WI and also further south through IN/KY/WV, but other areas in between may only see a couple tenths to a half inch or so.
Temperatures this week look to be a little more on the mild side compared to last week, as models are in fair agreement on more seasonally average daytime highs across the Corn Belt while heat stays confined mostly to the western US.
A warmer/drier shift in the extended forecast could be blamed for at least part of Monday's rally in the ag markets, with the models seeing a pretty significant high pressure ridge now lingering across the central US into the back half of the month, limiting rainfall for the Plains and keeping the area hotter than normal.
Ridge-riding thunderstorms will continue to be allowed to impact parts of the Corn Belt as a result, but exactly where the rain falls at will be determined by the ridge's exact location, which will make it hard to predict. This afternoon's precip anomaly maps for the week two period have the northern half to 2/3s of the Corn Belt on the drier side of normal, while also keeping the southern US and the mid-Atlantic on the wetter side of normal.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
