Closing Markets: Corn: +0.75 old & +1 new.
Beans: -0.50 old & -1 new. Wheat: +9.25.
PLEASE JOIN US FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good thru August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets at the Board of Trade finished a bit all over the place on Wednesday, with wheat and bean oil higher, corn and soybeans near unchanged, and the meal market lower in what ended up being a session that had a little bit for everyone. Headline-wise, it was another round of RVO speculation that was responsible for the spread activity in the product markets, though we're struggling a bit to understand what we now know today that we didn't know yesterday and would assume a lot of the move was algo-driven. Aside from that, wheat got back to near the recent highs throughout the day, and the corn and bean markets didn't have a lot to trade which led them to settling near unchanged.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures finished on either side of unchanged Wednesday, as the market saw little in the way of fresh input ahead of this week's USDA Outlook Forum, which while not expected to be Earth-shattering, will give the first looks into new crop balance sheets for the coming growing season. We have little reason to believe numbers will vary much from baseline projections made last week by the USDA, but traders nonetheless are taking a wait-and-see approach to the data, as aside from crop development in South America, there continues to just not be a lot in the market to discuss otherwise. Today marks just the fifth of the last eighteen sessions that March corn hasn't traded 4.30 at some point, which would seem to indicate that, at least for now, there is some sort of fair value there.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex saw choppy trade on Wednesday, with the beans working both higher and lower in an almost 20-cent range throughout the day before closing near unchanged, while the product markets were mixed on RVO headlines. Despite proposals being sent to the White House, we're still likely a good 30 days away from any sort of final ruling, which would put us right into the late-March timeframe that the EPA announced several weeks ago. And on top of that, an EPA announcement regarding the RVO still doesn't do anything to answer questions surrounding whether small refiner exemptions either will or won't be awarded, which in our opinion, has a bigger effect on marketing year bean oil use for biofuel than a volume mandate does. Lastly, with bean oil inventories in the US currently at their highest level in nearly three years, we're questioning exactly how much new bean demand for crush/oil can be reasonably expected at this point in a marketing year that's already nearly half way complete.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures clawed back most of what they lost to start the week yesterday today on Wednesday, as yesterday's bearish weather stories of moisture and snow cover transitioned to bullish ones today of frost and fires. While this is all good and fine, at the end of the day we don't know that it matters a whole lot if Russian values continue to not move and Argentina remains the cheapest supply in the world. Somewhat like the case in soybeans currently, rallies are a bit of a double-edged sword in that they offer selling opportunities to the producer, but they also harm global export competitiveness with each leg higher.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $2.70bbl.
Weather Updates-
Mid-day weather this afternoon trended slightly drier for the eastern and southern parts of the US into the weekend and the first part of next week, but still looks to be increasingly wet over the next several days. In the meantime, much of the central part of the US will stay on the drier side of normal, with little to no precip expected west of the Mississippi for the next 10-15 days.
Temperatures will be warm for another few days before models still see a brief cool off coming for the weekend and first part of next week. Warmer air is seen returning shortly thereafter, but nighttime lows will drop back into the teens/single digits across much of the northern part of the area for a couple days early next week.
Temperature forecasts saw no change the last 24 hours and continue to show warmer than normal air lingering throughout most of the country into the first week of March after next week's quick cool down. Precip-wise, there also wasn't a lot of change overnight, as models have stayed wet through the upper Midwest and the northeast, as well as through the PNW, while also seeing near-normal precip chances throughout most of the central part of the US.
Models show rains continuing to fall across much of central Argentina through the week this week and into the weekend, with this afternoon's GFS run forecasting an additional half inch to an inch of rainfall throughout a lot of the region, with a decent size area expected to see a heavier 3-6" between now and the first part of next week.
For Brazil, drier conditions through the southwest and south-central parts of the country likely continue into the weekend, but then turn a bit wetter again into the middle part of next week. However, with harvest progress in top producing state Mato Grosso now well above the halfway mark, the additional moisture will mostly be viewed as a positive for safrinha corn as attention begins to shift to when monsoonal rains might shut off in April.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
