Closing Markets: Corn: +3.
Beans: +7.75. Wheat: -3.25.
TFG is offering our drying incentive at ALL LOCATIONS through Wednesday 16th!
2 1/2 cents per pt of moisture up to 30%. Regular rate above.
Harvest hours will be used as needed!
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches start NEXT WEEK!! 11:30-1:30 pm!
Come get a pork chop!
9/24 ~ Milmine
9/25 ~ Tabor
9/28 ~ Pierson
9/29 ~ Emery
9/30 ~ Cisco
10/1 ~ Johnston Siding
The United Church of Atwood will be serving pork chop lunches Saturday, 10/3 from 11am-1pm in Pierson by free-will donation!
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Trade was mostly choppy and mixed across the CBOT on Monday, with the feed-grain markets seeing two-sided closes on either side of unchanged while the soy complex was generally firmer on end user buying following the break in prices to end the week last week. With the September WASDE update having not produced much of anything in terms of changes to the overall fundamental background in the markets, trader focus this week has shifted back towards the looming China meeting and the end-of-month stocks update, as well as the Midwest harvest that is going to gain steam in the days ahead.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures were quietly higher on Monday to get the week started, with buyers showing up on the day session open to end the overnight correction but the market still inside of Friday's wide range for the duration of the day. There's going to be an obvious shift in focus in the days and weeks ahead towards yield discussions and actual combine data and crop size, but it's important to remember that this is not the only market factor that is going to influence prices into fall and winter. Beyond the ongoing geopolitical situations in the Black Sea and in the Middle East, inflationary fears are again becoming a real concern and there's also a looming El Niño that could cause extreme irregularities in global weather patterns. Corn futures are not just supported by falling US crop estimates and what is know a well-known story regarding record demand.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was higher Monday, with much of the buying said to be the result of end-user pricing both in the beans and the meal following the selling seen out of the report on Friday last week. While world energy values and the price of soybean oil remain front and center in terms of market fundamentals, political posturing ahead of next week's Trump-Xi summit in D.C. is going to gain in importance over the next ten days and this could make daily trade increasingly volatile. With the funds already sitting at a record net-long futures position, its difficult to assess whether profit taking and risk reduction will have more impact than speculative buying on the long side that is hopeful for additional ag purchase agreements, but its this answer that likely dictates price flows over the next ten days will harvest still not quite ready to roll across most of the Midwest.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw two-sided price action on Monday, trading higher throughout most of the overnight and morning before then selling off on the Trump Truth Social post regarding progress with Ukraine and Russia. That there was no confirmation of the agreement from either of the two sides allowed values work back off the lows into the close, but it remains the case that headline risk as a result of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty remains the biggest threat to prices in the short term. Export capacity out of the Black Sea is less than half of normal during peak season, and to put it simply, this is still the bottom line story to the world wheat market; until this changes, prices should continue to see some measure of support on corrections.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $1.50+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Southeastern US high pressure ridging will keep weather across the Corn Belt a two-part story this week, with areas to the south seeing another week of warm/dry while the north and northwest look to see regular thunderstorm activity that could provide upwards of 6+" of rainfall to parts of mostly IA while the rest of the region further north sees rainfall chances of 2-4" through MN and WI and into northern IL.
The temperature outlook for the week will be related, as storms in the north keep things mostly on the cooler side of normal while the high pressure ridging in the south keeps heat present through the week this week.
The longer term pattern out of next weekend then seems to want to stay active, with another trough forming in the west/northwest that works its way across the country by next week, again providing cooler, wetter conditions to much of the northern tier of the country while heat looks to stay present across the south and southeast.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
