Closing Markets: Corn: +2 old & +0.25 new.
Beans: +11.25 old & +13.50 new. Wheat: +9.25 old & +7.75 new.
All Topflight locations will be closed Friday, April 3rd in observance of Good Friday!!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Report day left the ag space mostly higher on Tuesday, as the USDA's stocks and acreage updates had a little something for everybody and as headlines out of the Middle East continue to influence price direction throughout the whole of the commodity space. For corn, news of a possible end to the war in Iran and a subsequent sell-off in crude oil kept prices subdued for the most part post the report coming out, while the rest of the space traded higher through late morning and across the noon hour before falling back off the highs just a bit into the close
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed unchanged to slightly higher on Tuesday, as price action in the crude oil market seemingly had more impact on the day's direction than this morning's USDA updates did. Jumping right into it, we see the acreage number meaning little if anything today; sure, it was bigger than expected, but every bull and his mother is going to argue for the next three months that because the survey was done before the price spike in fertilizer happened, that the final number will inevitably be smaller. It might be, or near-perfect Corn Belt weather over the next 6-8 weeks could give American farmers, who otherwise love to grow corn, reason to seed additional acres, leading to a situation similar to last year. We are not saying final acres will 100% without a doubt be up from today's number, but we are saying a very logical scenario exists where this could be the case. On the stocks side, traders yet again underestimated domestic disappearance, but the bottom line is that March 1 inventories are up nearly a billion bu from last year and currently sitting at the highest level in at least the last 20 years, which would seemingly not be bullish.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex closed higher on Tuesday, with the beans pacing the gains on a lower than expected acreage print despite stocks still being up notably vs both expectations and last year. Inversely to the discussion had in today's corn section, an opposite argument will be made now through spring and into early summer that rising costs of growing corn could have done nothing but lead farmers to plant more bean acres in the time between when the surveys were conducted and today's reports. While possibly true, we would simply advise caution, as often times when the entire trade gets to thinking in one direction is when the biggest surprises can occur. Between world energy values, ongoing conversation around the newly announced RVO, and the continued debate over Chinese buying, today's stocks/acreage figures are small potatoes in the grand scheme of things; the final numbers in June will have far more importance to price direction.
Wheat Summary-
Chicago wheat futures closed higher on Tuesday and at their best level since the spike reversal high at the beginning of the month, as planted acreage estimates continue to fall. If today's estimates end up being accurate (or if final figures come in lower), this will be the smallest wheat planted area the US has ever planted going back to the early 1900's, highlighting what has now become a years-long trend. Ongoing variability in the forecasts into mid-April also likely helped the market today, as rains still are having trouble being pulled into the short term.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $1-4/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Parts of the eastern and northeastern Midwest will see severe weather risks this afternoon/evening and into tomorrow, though the risks aren't overly elevated relatively speaking. The storms kick off what looks to be an active several days of weather throughout the region, with the models still in good agreement this afternoon on two additional systems beyond this one into the first part of next week.
Temperatures become more variable with the passing storm systems, but generally continue to stay warmer than normal in the eastern US the rest of the week this week while the west and northwest stay on the cooler side.
Precipitation anomaly maps for the week of April 8-14 this afternoon are back wetter again after trending drier over the weekend, and now have the moisture seen in the south-central US expanding northward into more of the Corn Belt in the period. Models do have the eastern third of the country staying on the dry side, while the West Coast also looks to stay drier in the period.
Models are in better agreement on the extended temperature outlook this afternoon than they were yesterday, and are again back to having most all of the US in a warmer than normal outlook, with the eastern half of the country marginally warmer than the west.
Argentina looks to see rains return to its southern and southeastern growing regions over the next couple days, while Brazil also likely sees a return of better moisture throughout most all of the country besides the west into next week. Temperature-wise, heat across Argentina abates by the weekend but then is quickly replaced with much cooler than normal air as the pattern shifts again next week.
Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
www.topflightgrain.com
