Closing Markets: Corn: +4.75 old & +5.50 new.
Beans: +21.50 old & +23.25 new. Wheat: -8.75.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Ag markets got off to a mixed start to the week on Monday, with corn and soybeans higher to sharply higher, the wheat market lower, and the products mixed on largely a continuation of the same trading themes that were chewed on much of the week last week. Its the back half of July and that usually means weather is the most important part of futures price discovery in CBOT ag markets; however, this year, ongoing geopolitical hostilities both in the Middle East and in the Black Sea region have undoubtedly stolen a majority of the trader focus, and again look to be the primary drivers of price at least early on this week.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures got off to a bullish start to the week on Monday, gapping higher on the open Sunday evening and then staying there throughout the course of the day session while scoring a new round of highs for the move and testing previous chart-based resistance though the news cycle continues to be largely the same as it was last week. Generally speaking, the buying the last three weeks or so has been the result of less-than-perfect weather across the US Midwest, historic drought conditions across Europe, and a sudden drop-off in exportable supplies out of the Black Sea region, the combination of which have now added a considerable amount of importance to US yield performance later this fall. Should the global balance sheet see another sizeable cut in production via lower US yields, a run at $5 spot futures would seemingly be a real possibility.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was mixed/mostly higher to start the week on Monday, with the beans and meal trading in the green while the oil was in the red on chart-based buying and a more threatening forecast into August for the central part of the US. While more of a regular occurrence of late, the presence of Chinese bean flashes on the daily sales wire was also a friendly feature for Monday and helped pushed the rally to new highs on the morning reopen. From here, as long as today's move isn't quickly rejected, we imagine it will be likely that both old and new crop futures make a run at new contract highs sooner than later, as both are now within spitting distance of current price levels.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw the worst start to the week of the bunch on Monday despite arguably still having the most friendly backdrop with everything still going on in the Black Sea region. Much of the selling, according to analysts, was the result of the unwinding of long wheat, short corn spreads, which was driven by the wheat/corn spread hitting historical resistance near the $2.40 level. Vessel attacks are ongoing near the Kerch Strait and until more is known regarding grain/vessel movement in the region, we don't see a swift removal of recently added premium as likely.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.30+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
A cool-down in temperatures looks to be the main feature for Midwest weather this week, as much of the region after today is expected to see well below normal daytime highs for several days as heat is confined to the west and northwest.
As high pressure moves west, rainfall prospects for the eastern part of the country will notably improve according to the EU model. The model also shows storms in the west providing potentially heavy rainfall to parts of NE/KS/MO, but notable are pockets in the central part of the region that look to miss out on most of this rainfall and will remain on the drier side into next week.
Generally speaking for the extended forecast, which now stretches into August, monsoonal rains look to continue impacting the west and southwest, while ridge-riding thunderstorm activity will be the main source of precip in the east. CPC outlooks have precip potential throughout most all the Corn Belt as near average, but some of these storms will be small cells that produce locally heavy rainfall that will be hard to forecast.
Following the cool down this week, models have above average warmth then returning for most of the US into next week. The most extreme heat looks to remain generally in the west, but the east also has more warmer days than not in the forecast into the first part of August.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
