Closing Markets: Corn: -1.75 old & -1.50 new.
Beans: +0.75 old & new. Wheat: -10.25.
We will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Thursday, August 27th
Lincoln ~ Knights of Columbus ~ 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello ~ Monticello Community Building ~ 12 pm for Lunch!
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Markets closed mixed on Tuesday at the CBOT as a morning rally largely failed into and through the noon hour with crop chatter on social media driving a lot of the day's trade. We talked about it briefly yesterday, but it appears things have shifted notably this week from geopolitics to crop size/conditions, and this has fueled more two-sided price action. The two wars remain ongoing and still don't seem anywhere close to any sort of a resolution, but at least for now, are not what traders are most worried about.
Corn Summary-
It was generally a quiet day in the corn market Tuesday, with prices closing marginally lower after finding chart-based resistance at the old July high late in the overnight session this morning. Chart-wise, Dec corn needs to see a close above 4.92 to open the door to higher prices, but should this occur, we would imagine a fairly swift test of the $5 level shortly after there. At that point, the key to whether a more aggressive rally unfolds beyond there depends largely on actual combine data that will start coming in another 4-6 weeks or so and also on ongoing developments in the Black Sea region, which at least today, show little if any signs of improving. Demand is record strong is likely going to stay that way, it's just a matter of what the supply situation is going to be to be able to handle that demand.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished mixed Tuesday, with a sell-off in the bean oil market working to pull soybeans back well off their early morning highs and back closer to unchanged amid what was maybe too strong of a reaction to the NOPA crush report on Monday. For the beans themselves, focus was on pod counts and crop dynamics, but the selling in the oil was just too much to ignore and ended up being the main story by the end of the day. Traders also saw another round of soybean sales to China this morning, which while somewhat becoming old news on a day-to-day basis, is still important to overall market dynamics and the balance sheet into fall and winter.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw corrective price action on Tuesday, trading lower on a lack of new headlines out of the Black Sea region and as spring wheat conditions saw another unexpected improvement in yesterday afternoon's update. Marginal news stories, like crop conditions, will get some sort of market traction from a headline standpoint, but like we've talked about repeatedly now, global wheat price discovery is almost entirely a product of export capacity out of the Black Sea with supply losses in the US and Europe known to a certain degree. Traders don't have an exact supply number yet, but they're aware that growing season losses in the US and the EU mean that a reduction in export capacity elsewhere cannot be sustained for very long.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.40+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
The overall forecast outlook was little changed on Tuesday through the end of the week and weekend, with high pressure across the southern US still the dominate feature. Models continue to show spotty rain/storm potential in a corridor across the Corn Belt into the weekend, but these systems look less organized than those seen last week and are likely to put down more scattered rainfall.
The temperature pattern seems a bit stuck over the next week, with models still in good agreement today on cooler air lingering across much of the Midwest and northeast, while heat stays present under the high-pressure ridge to the south and the southwest and through the intermountain west.
Extended forecasts also saw little change Tuesday afternoon, with the models in fair agreement on monsoonal rains staying present across the western US while much of the Midwest sees a drier outlook. The East Coast is also expected to pick up additional moisture into month end, but there are questions as to just how dry the Midwest pattern will actually be amid what is likely to be a continued ridge presence that will keep pushing regular storm activity through the region.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
