Closing Markets: Corn: -5.25.
Beans: -30.75. Wheat: -14.50.
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches are on!! 11:30-1:30 pm!
Come get a pork chop!
TOMORROW!! ~ EMERY
WEDNESDAY! ~ CISCO
THURSDAY! ~ JOHNSTON SIDING
The United Church of Atwood will be serving pork chop lunches Saturday, 10/3 from 11am-1pm in Pierson by free-will donation!
Good evening!
Market Recap-
It was a lower start to the week across the ag space on Monday, with tomorrow's open interest data likely to show a run for the exits by some of the longs in the space based on what is being perceived as disappointment from the latest round of trade negotiations between the US and China. With there nothing new in terms of actual volumes or purchase agreements, traders will now be watching to see whether a) China continues to make good on its 25 million ton soybean commitment and b) whether they begin showing up to buy US corn and wheat. Otherwise, its Wednesday's quarterly stocks and small grains update that offers the market its next chance at new information, along with the October WASDE that's then due out next week.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures saw a lower start to the week on Monday, drug to the downside somewhat by overall long-liquidation selling as the result of nothing new being announced in terms of a corn-specific deal with China. While the algorithms read the news as disappointing, we would actually argue the dropping of 10% reciprocal tariffs on US corn was more constructive than not, as it least opens the door to some sort of business over the next several months with Ukraine's exports still constricted. China has been making increased purchases of Argy corn lately which could continue, but the bulls hope is that some of this business makes its way to either the Gulf or the PNW if disruptions in the Black Sea continue. Outside of the China situation, its this week's stocks number that will be the next biggest talking point, with harvest still slow in the west and yields still generally down from last year for the most part across the Corn Belt. Cash bean pushes have led farmers to switch focus away from corn harvest where able.
Soybean Summary-
It was a headline day in the bean market on Monday, with spec selling as the result of last week's China meetings the main feature throughout the day. With the 25 million ton annual purchase agreement still fairly fresh in the grand scheme of things, it was foolish to assume there was going to be some big grandiose announcement made last week that would have largely changed the overarching fundamental landscape. Sure, the dropping of 10% reciprocal tariffs to allow private import business would have been nice, but it wasn't going to amount to a ton of extra demand on top of the 25 million tons that is already expected. China's government wants to be in control regarding US soybean purchases, and this allows them to continue taking up supplies, putting them in warehouses, and then auctioning them off to crushers at a later date. Aside from China news, there continues to be cash chatter surrounding what has been a pretty wild bean basis environment, with some pushes seen last week evaporating over the weekend while others are still seen into this week amid ongoing delays. Meal bids have also spiked lately on the same fundamentals.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed lower as well on Monday, though the selling was seemingly more related to the other row crop markets than it was to wheat specifically. What negative news there was in the space came from weekend headlines regarding a push by Turkey and Egypt among others in the Middle East to continue working towards some sort of grain/energy ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea, though we continue to see prospects as more unlikely than not amid fresh political approval for Putin via elections this month to broadly continue the war effort. The Russian President has, for months now, reiterated that he sees no reason to give Ukraine a break in the conflict, and we're simply doubtful any amount of prodding done by any sort of world leadership is going to have a material impact on his disposition. Talks are ongoing, but it still seems some sort of diplomatic breakthrough would appear to be a ways off.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down around $0.40+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Models see rainfall across the western Corn Belt as likely again this week, as the remnants of Hurricane Polo combine with a larger low pressure system and work across the mid-section of the country, dropping 2-3" of rain over the next several days. There's also a second system in the forecast that looks to drop similar totals further south and east.
Temperatures this week look to be warmer throughout most of the Midwest than what was had last week, but heat generally subsides again by Wednesday, with cooler air working back into the central and eastern US by the back half of the weekend.
The extended pattern looks to stay fairly progressive, with a drier outlook again showing up in the forecasts for much of the Corn Belt into mid-month following another week of wet this week. Though confidence in the two week forecast isn't overly high, models are in good agreement out of the weekend, with both the EU and GFS on board with the drier outlook for much of the US, as well as the Climate Prediction Center.
There still isn't a lot of major frost risk in the extended range temperature outlook, but models over the weekend did begin to show cooler air working into the northern tier of the country by the middle/back half of the month, which had some models putting nighttime lows near the frost threshold. Concern today is minimal, but this will need to be watched over the next couple weeks.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
