CORN:

For weeks, the rumblings about corn acreage suggested USDA's March acreage estimate could easily exceed the 94.2 million acres that Dow Jones survey participants had expected. That turned out to be correct as the resulting 1.1 million rise above the average estimate had little impact on December corn futures. The 95.3-million-acre estimate turns out to be the fourth highest ever for March, and within a few million acres of the 2012 record of 97.3 million. Much of the area increase was attributed to Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and North Dakota. December corn gravitated around unchanged to slightly lower for much of the day -- a tepid reaction to the much higher-than-expected acreage number.

Adding to the rather boring reaction of corn to the acreage numbers was the March 1 stocks of 8.15 billion bushels (bb), which figured 201 million bushels (mb) lower than 2024 and just slightly below the average trade estimate of 8.19 bb. Second quarter feed and residual figured to be 1.53 bb, down just over 60 mb from a year ago. The quarterly usage of 3.93 bb is considered a record and 100 mb higher than a year ago, likely the result of the strong export pace. On-farm corn stocks fell 11% from a year ago to 4.15 bb. Off-farm stocks, at 3.65 bb, are up 12% from a year ago.

Spot corn futures gained Monday, while new-crop December contract finished only slightly lower.

SOYBEANS:

The soybean stocks and acreage estimates from USDA were even less exciting. Soybean acres, expected to come in at 83.7 million, instead came out slightly below that, at 83.5 million. March 1 stocks of soybeans came in 4% higher than a year ago at 1.910 bb. That was just slightly higher than the average estimate of 1.895 bb and roughly 65 mb higher than March 2024. On-farm soy stocks fell 6% at 877 mb, with off-farm soy stocks at 1.03 bb, which were 13% higher than March 2024. Second quarter residual was a negative 50 mb. Indicated disappearance for the December 2024 to February 2025 quarter totaled 1.19 bb, up 3% from the same period a year earlier.

Old- and new-crop soy futures fell from 8 to just over 9 cents Monday, pressured by weaker product markets and led by bean oil.

WHEAT:

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the March report was the wheat acres. All wheat acres came in at just 45.4 million, down 2% from 2024 and one million acres less than the Dow Jones pre-report estimate of 46.4 million. Winter wheat came in at 33.3 million, about 500,000 acres less than expected. Other spring wheat acres were estimated to be 10.0 million, less than the 10.45 ma Dow Jones estimate. The 45.4 million acres of all wheat, if realized, would be the second lowest since 1919.

March 1 all wheat stocks came in at 1.237 bb, about 17 mb higher than the average trade estimate. That would be up 14% from a year ago, with on-farm stocks at 307 mb, also up 13% and off-farm stocks of 930 mb 14% higher than 2024.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Corn futures reacted little to the surprisingly high acreage number, with old-crop futures gaining on export demand and new-crop futures just slightly lower to end Monday. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the greater-than-expected cut in both winter and spring wheat prospective planting numbers. Wheat did react to the upside, with moderate gains in each market. Overall, the March Grain Stocks and Prospective Planting reports were milder versions of previous reports.

At the close on Monday, May corn futures finished up 4 cents with December down 1/2 cent. May beans fell 8 1/4 cents with November falling 9 3/4 cents. Kansas City July wheat ended up 4 1/2 cents for the day, while Minneapolis September new crop wheat finished up 9 1/2 cents.

Dana Mantini can be reached at dana.mantini@dtn.com

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