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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/18 11:40
Mixed Trader Interest has Livestock Contracts Trading in Different Directions
With the feeder cattle contracts trading $1.00 to $3.00 higher -- cattlemen
are hopeful that the old market saying "feeders are leaders" will re-spark
optimism in the live cattle contracts.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's a mixed marketplace for the livestock industry as the complex nears
Tuesday's noon hour. Both the lean hogs and feeder cattle are trading higher,
but the live cattle complex continues to trade lower in its nearby contracts.
March corn is up 6 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.80. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 67.51 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Unfortunately, the live cattle complex's nearby contracts are again subdued
to more downward pressure. The nearby contracts are trading moderately lower as
traders simply can't seem to find any technical footing in this market
currently. With it assumed that cash prices will again trade lower this week
and with the spot April contract trading well below its 40-day moving average
-- pressure has abounded. But the deferred contracts are trading mildly higher
into Tuesday's noon hour. February live cattle are down $0.57 at $197.17, April
live cattle are down $0.35 at $193.90 and June live cattle are down $0.02 at
$190.42.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 52,215 head. Of that 78%
(40,819 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 22%
(11,396 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.03 ($316.73) and select down $2.29
($303.94) with a movement of 81 loads (42.36 loads of choice, 19.82 loads of
select, 7.59 loads of trim and 11.35 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
It's somewhat strange to see the feeder cattle complex trading boldly higher
all while the nearby corn contracts are rallying anywhere from $0.05 to $0.07
higher and the live cattle market isn't lending any support. But nonetheless,
the nearby contracts are up $1.00 to $3.00 higher and it's liberating to see
the spot March contract back above its 40-day moving average. There's the old
saying that "feeders are the leaders" and let's hope that we see that come true
this week as the live cattle market desperately needs some support. March
feeders are up $3.02 at $269.40, April feeders are up $2.25 at $268.67 and May
feeders are up $1.72 at $266.72.
LEAN HOGS:
Although morning pork cutout values are lower, the lean hog complex
continues to trade higher as the market's technical support remains unwavering.
April lean hogs are up $1.30 at $93.90, June lean hogs are up $0.97 at $105.65
and July lean hogs are up $0.82 at $106.12. Subtle losses are seen consistently
throughout this morning's pork cutout report, but with the belly's $5.71
decline -- it's no wonder that the carcass price is indeed lower.
The projected lean hog index for 2/14/2025 is up $0.98 at $89.75, and the
actual index for 2/13/2025 is up $0.71 at $88.77. Hog prices are unavailable on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can
see that only 1,190 head have traded and that the week's five-day rolling
average now sits at $88.58. Pork cutouts total 147.88 loads with 133.54 loads
of pork cuts and 14.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.65, $100.82.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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